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Discuss: The OWS Movement will hurt/help the Democrats in 2012.

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 12:20 pm
I am cautiously optimistic that the populous protests will propel a independent candidate. We are at the moment left with a choice between a failed Obama and which ever second rate (third rate?) guy is chosen from the GOP collection. The right guy could step in around April, announce that he wants to be our president, and walk away with it. The OWS should be right now putting this idea into the heads of some decent leaders.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 12:23 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
I am cautiously optimistic that the populous protests will propel a independent candidate.


Not enough time. States have rules about how early you have to file to be on the ballot.

Cycloptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 12:38 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:

Not enough time. States have rules about how early you have to file to be on the ballot.
In the April/May time frame. It is always a lot of work for a non DEM/GOP candidate to get listed because the parties have done their best to make sure that we have to chose one of them, but in this environment of disgust with both parties and already functioning protest movements there has never been a better time for someone to derail the two party lock on power.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 12:41 pm
@Joe Nation,
Thanks Joe (You made my day) Nation, the thought that OWS might hurt the Democrats in 2012 hadn't even crossed my mind.

Unless what is now the "OWS Movement" organizes political activism around a relatively limited and coherent set of principles, it won't be of any value to Democrats in 2012, but it also won't present a risk for a 3rd party candidate.

It could be a detriment if its national news persona remains either the sloganeering Marxist or the slacker hippie, and it is able to continue to receive media attention through occasional scuffles with police or the "human interest" stories involving protestors freezing in their wool blanket tents.

It's not going to make it into the winter months though.

There is already growing tension between the protestors and city governments due to the simple fact that the demonstrations are disruptive of conventional city life, and beginning to tax their resources.

I wonder if those of you who look so approvingly on this movement appreciates the extent of disruption it has caused and which must be resulting in thousands of complaints to the city governments on a daily basis.

I saw a woman on TV this weekend who identified herself as the owner of a small cafe near Zuccotti Park who has found her business fall by about 40% since the OWS movement began. She claims she was sympathetic to the protestors’ arguments at first, but they have become a real problem for her.

Apparently a large number of them use her bathrooms without purchasing anything, and "use" extends to sink baths as well as the more typical activity. When she put signs on the bathroom doors that announced they were for the use of paying customers only, she found a young woman standing on one of her chairs ripping the signs to shreds and delivering a long lecture on the evils of capitalism and how she and her comrades had taken to the streets to protect the very people who were denying them basic human rights of hygiene.

Others have "occupied" booths and hold them all day while they spend maybe $5 on coffee and English muffins. One couple, she claimed, was using one of her booths as their office in connection with the thriving business they apparently had in terms of signs, t-shirts, ball caps etc.

Whether this cafe owner's tales are common to the area, I can't say but to the extent that they are at all prevalent you can imagine how tensions will rise.

Interesting enough, one of the self-professed organizers of OWS (can't recall his name but would recognize it) followed the cafe owner and did a poor but recognizable job of dodging the issue of the impact OWS was having on this woman's business.

He didn't deny her claims, but incessantly argued that the protestor were well received in the community, and that OWS has some sort of community relations committee that would be getting in touch with the woman. When pressed on the fact that the woman was losing a substantial chunk of her business the fellow suggested no recourse other than talking to the committee. You could tell that he wanted to suggest her losses were collateral damage, but either had too much savvy or too little honesty to go there.

At some point the city governments are going to have to negotiate OWS withdrawals or press the issue harder. In the event of the latter there's a good chance that violence will result. Unfortunately for OWS, I don't think municipal police departments are seen in quite the same light as the internal security forces of Middle eastern despots, and unless it is clear and unequivocal, the American people aren't going to assume that NYC cops have been looking to break heads all along.

Their Occupation stage has come to its end and they need to move on voluntarily and with grace (cleaning up after themselves). If they do this their public image will get a boost and will be less of potential stain on the Democrats.
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 12:47 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
At some point the city governments are going to have to negotiate OWS withdrawals or press the issue harder. In the event of the latter there's a good chance that violence will result. Unfortunately for OWS, I don't think municipal police departments are seen in quite the same light as the internal security forces of Middle eastern despots, and unless it is clear and unequivocal, the American people aren't going to assume that NYC cops have been looking to break heads all along


1) the NYPD has a very shaky reputation to start with

2) current political power has very little positive reputation, and given the obviously self serving nature of shutting down protests to current political power moves against the protesters will cause grave political damage to those who try it.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:07 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:

I wonder if those of you who look so approvingly on this movement appreciates the extent of disruption it has caused and which must be resulting in thousands of complaints to the city governments on a daily basis.


Hmm:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2011/10/new-york-to-occupy-wall-street-weve-got-your-back.php?ref=fpblg

Quote:
A Quinnipiac poll released on Monday found that residents of the financial capital of the world are unfazed by the presence of the protestors, who have been mostly in the financial district's Zuccotti Park but also made their way to Times Square on Saturday night, and that two thirds of New Yorkers agree with the views of Occupy Wall Street.

72 percent polled in the city said that if protestors obey the law they should be allowed to stay as long as they want. 24 percent said they should be limited. There was a trend based on income within those findings, but not what you might think: the lower the income group, the more likely a the respondent would say OWS protests should be stopped at some point. Only 16 percent of those who make over $100,000 felt OWS should be halted in the future, while 34 percent of those who make less than $30-thousand thought so. Still, a majority of all groups said it should continue as long as the protesters aren't breaking the law.


I daresay you may be just a little out-of-touch with the common man, and what they do or do not believe, Finn.

Quote:

It's not going to make it into the winter months though.


You think not? Laughing

You are badly underestimating this movement, as much so as the Dems did the tea party back in early 2009.

Cycloptichorn
hawkeye10
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:17 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Quote:
I daresay you may be just a little out-of-touch with the common man, and what they do or do not believe, Finn.

The American Zeitgeist has in recent times been ruled by "dont rock the boat" and "sure it sucks, but do the best you can" ....this has only just recently broken down as many of us have decided that we are headed for a waterfall and have taken up "do something, anything is better than doing nothing".

Finn has not been paying attention.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:26 pm
@hawkeye10,
hawkeye10 wrote:

Quote:
At some point the city governments are going to have to negotiate OWS withdrawals or press the issue harder. In the event of the latter there's a good chance that violence will result. Unfortunately for OWS, I don't think municipal police departments are seen in quite the same light as the internal security forces of Middle eastern despots, and unless it is clear and unequivocal, the American people aren't going to assume that NYC cops have been looking to break heads all along


1) the NYPD has a very shaky reputation to start with

I disagree, and certainly not on a nationwide basis.

Of course there will always be people who assume the police are at fault when violence errupts, and one might be able to make the case that often the police overreact, but I've yet to see any "smoking gun" video clips of NYC police brutality let alone of the rampant sort.

If NYC cops in riot gear and on horseback march into crowds of peaceful protestors and begin cracking heads, public opinion will definately be with the protestors. If, on the other hand, the TV coverage is filled with clips of young men wearing Keffiyehs and throwing rocks or molotov cocktails at police, OWS will have lost the PR war.


2) current political power has very little positive reputation, and given the obviously self serving nature of shutting down protests to current political power moves against the protesters will cause grave political damage to those who try it.

That's nonsense. If it has not already happened, there will come a point when the average New Yorker says "Enough's enough. You've had your say; you've made your point, now stop being a nusiance and move on." At that point Bloomberg will get points for taking charge. You need to keep in mind that this isn't Cairo. People living and working in NYC do not see the OWS as a means by which their lives could change for the better. Couples do not go to bed at night telling each other how glad they are that these young people are standing up to Bloomberg and communicating the wishes of a nation.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:28 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
We'll see won't we?
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:32 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Recent US public opinion polls on the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) protests suggest a high level of public sympathy for the movement. Despite all the press depictions of the protesters as a bunch of grungy white kids who are “clamoring for nothing in particular,” the general public in this country is broadly sympathetic to the OWS movement. Given the atmosphere of public opinion, movement organizers have a tremendous opportunity to mobilize vast numbers of people in the coming months.
OWS and Public Opinion

Four polls that touched on OWS, from Ipsos, Pew, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and TIME magazine, were all conducted between October 6th and October 10th. The first significant finding is that the OWS movement has caught public attention. Barely three weeks into the protests, according to Ipsos, 82 percent of the country had “at least heard of” the movement, and 50 percent considered themselves “very” or “somewhat” familiar with it. The Pew poll found that 42 percent are following the movement “very closely” or “fairly closely.”

How large a portion of the US public supports the Occupy Wall Street movement? In the TIME poll, 54 percent of respondents had a “very favorable” (25 percent) or “somewhat favorable” (29 percent) view of the movement. Only 23 percent had an “unfavorable” view of the movement, while another 23 percent said they “don’t know enough” yet. This finding means that roughly 167 million people in this country view the OWS movement favorably. If even 1 or 2 percent of these people were to become active participants, it would make for a movement bigger than anything seen in this country since the 1960s, and probably since the 1930s.

http://www.indypendent.org/2011/10/17/167-mil-support-ows/

They are out there representing the majority of Americans in Spirit. Our disgraced public officials can not move against them without paying a heavy price....no different that was the case for Mubarak.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:36 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:

If NYC cops in riot gear and on horseback march into crowds of peaceful protestors and begin cracking heads, public opinion will definately be with the protestors. If, on the other hand, the TV coverage is filled with clips of young men wearing Keffiyehs and throwing rocks or molotov cocktails at police, OWS will have lost the PR war.


I'm sure you realize that the first here is far more likely than the second. The NYPD has a reputation for beating the **** out of people (and indeed, there have been many videotaped instances of them already doing this to these protestors, and reports of many more that were not videotaped) and it's hardly a stretch to believe that the public knows this.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:46 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
BTW - I don't think you read your own cite very closely

Quote:
There was a trend based on income within those findings, but not what you might think: the lower the income group, the more likely a the respondent would say OWS protests should be stopped at some point. Only 16 percent of those who make over $100,000 felt OWS should be halted in the future, while 34 percent of those who make less than $30-thousand thought so
.

Quote:
I daresay you may be just a little out-of-touch with the common man, and what they do or do not believe, Finn.


Appears I'm more in touch with the common man than the elite.

Wink

Not that someone making around $100,000 a year in NYC can be considered part of the elite, but the true elite in NYC are not worried about this, and why not appear magnanimous in a poll and indicate it's A-OK that these kids have their say?

The common man isn't worried about it either, but they're going to be the first ones fed up with the disruption and they're more likely to look at a hippie with a sign and think "I have this crappy job pushing a broom, why don't you go out and get a job?"

I think this movement can lead to something with considerable power, I just don't believe it will.

As I said, we'll see.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 01:48 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Americans Elect: 2012 claims they will field a candidate on all fifty ballots.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 02:07 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
Not that someone making around $100,000 a year in NYC can be considered part of the elite


Well, I certainly didn't consider them to be so when I wrote this, as you can't afford much of anything at that rate in NYC. That notwithstanding, the next line is one you probably should have left in the quote:

Quote:
Still, a majority of all groups said it should continue as long as the protesters aren't breaking the law.


Right.

Quote:

The common man isn't worried about it either, but they're going to be the first ones fed up with the disruption and they're more likely to look at a hippie with a sign and think "I have this crappy job pushing a broom, why don't you go out and get a job?"


It's not hippies, or at least, not just hippies... critical error you're making here.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 02:40 pm
@edgarblythe,
I'm not about to turn an about face based on this news, but certainly for OWS to present any sort of threat to the Democrats in 2012 they are going to have to get a whole lot more organized in a very quick fashion.

Nader's 3rd Party bid in 2000 didn't require an enormous amount of organization to have had an effect on that election. With what organization he had, he could never have hoped to win, but all he needed was name recognition and the opportunity to reach out and touch liberals. He had the former and there was no shortage of liberal news and opinion outlets willing to provide him with the latter.

There simply isn't enough time for OWS to organically produce a candidate that would roughly represent its movement as a 3rd party candidate in 2012.

There is no real short list of OWS leaders right now, and to the extent that there is one developing, none of the individuals who might be considered have demonstrated one iota of the charisma, drive and political savvy needed to become the movement's figurehead if not mastermind.

This isn't a criticism of the people involved in OWS. There may be some very smart and talented people involved in this thing, but none that have exploded on to the nation's stage at this time.

If OWS ever does develop into a significant 3rd party presence, I just can't see it happening in time for the 2012 elections unless it allows itself to be co-opted by an existing political force, like a Ralph Nader.

It certainly doesn't seem though that there has been a rush of left-wing figures closely associating themselves with the movement, and in order for one of them to position themselves as a spokesperson for OWS in 2012 they will have to get moving pretty damned quickly.

I suppose a dark horse in this race could be someone like Michael Moore. He certainly has his anti-capitalist bonifides in order, he has great name recognition among the folks whose votes would be at play, and he has no establishment baggage with which to deal.

Joe (I'm sorry if this makes you feel better) Nation, I don't think you have to worry about an OWS spoiler in 2012.

hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 03:58 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
Quote:
I'm not about to turn an about face based on this news, but certainly for OWS to present any sort of threat to the Democrats in 2012 they are going to have to get a whole lot more organized in a very quick fashion
Wisconsin should give you pause, because to one who expects top down military organization they were not organized either, but they got the recalls done. They were wrong about where the majority was, but they prove that the modern hive organization of populous movements can be highly effective.

Ask Mubarak.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 04:06 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
It is my considered opinion that Nader will be avoided like poison by OWS. Not that I consider Nader a bad choice. It's just that he has already proved himself unelectable numerous times. I hold to the notion that if Ross Perot could instantly become a viable candidate, as he did at one time, then it can happen again. Also Green former candidates have no charisma that I have detected. I am waiting to see what happens as their program unfolds.
roger
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 04:14 pm
@revelette,
revelette wrote:

Quote:
so far they have done a fairly good job of making asses of themselves
.

There has been a few incidents, but compared to how many people show up, I think on the whole the protesters have "done a fairly good job" of demonstrating peacefully.


Sadly, it is the nature of news that "a few incidents" are what get photographed. Not especially sympathetic to OWS movement, but this is sad.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 05:34 pm
@edgarblythe,
I don't know that they'll see Nader so much as toxic as irrelevant. His time has come and gone.

Perot brought perotism with him. He didn't enter the scene and comandeer an existing movement.

Don't get me wrong. I would like nothing more than to see Michael Moore, Ralph Nader, Jon Stewart, or Jay Z take over the reins of OWS and ride it into battle against Obama and Romney in 2012. I just don't see it happening.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Oct, 2011 07:13 pm
@roger,
They have done a fairly good job of demonstrating peacefully, and to the extent that their image may be unfairly cast, it's not because of a few incidents that went viral on youtube.

Personally, I don't think it's been unfairly cast, but the image is not Main Street.

0 Replies
 
 

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