Putin Hints at His Successor

Vladimir Putin may appear to be the most tenacious ruler of Russia in a long time but he does serve within term limits ? and this is his second term as President, the last he can serve consecutively. With just 16 months to go, Kremlinologists have been trying to calibrate who his successor may be. This week, Putin gave them a new factor to throw into their equations. He elevated Sergei Ivanov, a former KGB foreign intelligence officer who had been serving as Defense Minister and as Deputy Premier, to a large new portfolio. Ivanov is now in charge of Russia's mammoth Military-Industrial Complex (that is indeed what it is called), a conglomerate of research, commercial and manufacturing operations that is the direct descendant of the Soviet era monopoly of all things having to do with the military. The Military-Industrial Complex makes up a substantial part of the country's economy, perhaps as much as 9% of GDP.

What is surprising is that of the top two contenders for the succession, Ivanov had not been the favorite. The betting odds had been on First Deputy Premier Dmitri Medvedev, who is in charge of, among other things, Gazprom, the energy company that supplies the natural gas and petroleum needs for much of Europe ? and whose policies mirror, if not predict, the actions of the Russian government. Ivanov's promotion gives him a civilian office to match Medvedev's, if not quite the economic clout, in the struggle for succession that observers are calling the War of the Kremlin Towers. Ivanov and Medvedev are two of these metaphorical towers. A third is Putin confidant Igor Sechin, whose adherents are trying to extend Putin's stay in office rather than push their faction leader's candidacy for the top job.

How did the hawkish Ivanov move up to near parity with Medvedev? Until recently, Putin had appeared to be an advocate for Medvedev and his conciliatory gestures towards Europe and the U.S. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month, Medvedev delivered speeches to the effect that Russia is firmly on the way of democracy and friendly cooperation with the West. Meanwhile, Ivanov was taking an aggressive tone, berating the U.S. for planning to deploy an anti-missile defense in Eastern Europe and having his Chief of General Staff threaten that Russia may walk away from a 1987 treaty between Moscow and Washington that scrapped mobile intermediate-range nuclear missiles.

But last week, Putin was sounding just like Ivanov. In visits to Munich and Amman, he castigated the U.S. and NATO with a vehemence not seen in a Moscow leader since the Cold War. Said one well-placed Russian official: "The Munich speech indeed set the Putin agenda for his remaining tenure as President." It was also, the official said, a "clear signal of his support for Ivanov." It's still too early to guess who will be the handpicked Successor ? Ivanov or Medvedev, or some other personage in the shadows. But one thing is certain, Putin has the clout to divide up oversight for the Russian economy among his would-be heirs; and when they inherit, they will owe him. He may not have to remain President to be the most powerful man in Russia.
Putin Hints at His Successor -- Friday, Feb. 16, 2007 -- Page 1 -- TIME