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Heads you lose. Tails you lose.

 
 
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 11:41 am
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks gave up some of their early gains as investors, seeing a brighter employment picture as a sign of economic strength, worry about higher interest rates.

Major stock indexes turned mixed Friday as news that employers cut fewer jobs in November has investors thinking the Federal Reserve could hike rates or remove other supports from the economy sooner than expected.

You can't win. The economy is bad, stocks go down because the economy is bad. The economy is good, stocks go down because the economy is good.
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Type: Discussion • Score: 1 • Views: 776 • Replies: 10
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xris
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 01:32 pm
@kennethamy,
gambling has it advocates but not I..dont you mean heads I win tails you loose.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Fri 4 Dec, 2009 04:54 pm
@xris,
xris;108165 wrote:
gambling has it advocates but not I..dont you mean heads I win tails you loose.


No. In this case I meant exactly what I said. Read what else I said, and you will understand. Actually, it is a little like the science of climate change. Whatever happens means disaster later.
xris
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 Dec, 2009 08:47 am
@kennethamy,
kennethamy;108194 wrote:
No. In this case I meant exactly what I said. Read what else I said, and you will understand. Actually, it is a little like the science of climate change. Whatever happens means disaster later.
The science of climate change is more precise...the result will be, we all loose if you dont take your blinkers off.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 Dec, 2009 08:56 am
@xris,
xris;108324 wrote:
The science of climate change is more precise...the result will be, we all loose if you dont take your blinkers off.


At least so you say.
Sam I Am phil
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jan, 2010 05:25 pm
@kennethamy,
The economy is a vicious beast. It often seems like it just stagnates. But at this point our global economy has grown interconnected to the point where it is more like a natural ecosystem than any other man made institution. That being said, every little action has far reaching consequences but actual permanent changes take a very long time to be evident.
kennethamy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jan, 2010 06:04 pm
@Sam I Am phil,
Sam I Am;122258 wrote:
The economy is a vicious beast. It often seems like it just stagnates. But at this point our global economy has grown interconnected to the point where it is more like a natural ecosystem than any other man made institution. That being said, every little action has far reaching consequences but actual permanent changes take a very long time to be evident.


As the English say, lots of little mickles make a big muckle.
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prothero
 
  1  
Reply Sun 24 Jan, 2010 08:21 pm
@kennethamy,
There is a lot of evidence that "rational investors" are not and that "efficient markets" is a myth. Economists appear somewhat less accurate than the weatherman and professional stock pickers cant beat a portfolio of stocks randomly picked by a lower form of primate.
Sam I Am phil
 
  1  
Reply Mon 25 Jan, 2010 06:08 pm
@prothero,
prothero;122291 wrote:
There is a lot of evidence that "rational investors" are not and that "efficient markets" is a myth. Economists appear somewhat less accurate than the weatherman and professional stock pickers cant beat a portfolio of stocks randomly picked by a lower form of primate.


Very true. It seems to me that we've created a system we can't control. This may be jumping to a conclusion, but to me that signals that the global economy takes its cues from a more subconscious, natural order then bending at the will of man.
I'm not the first person to arrive at this conclusion either: some economists have studied "cycles" of market change that seem to reflect more of the human subconscious than intentional changes.
manored
 
  1  
Reply Sun 31 Jan, 2010 05:21 pm
@Sam I Am phil,
Sam I Am;122571 wrote:
Very true. It seems to me that we've created a system we can't control. This may be jumping to a conclusion, but to me that signals that the global economy takes its cues from a more subconscious, natural order then bending at the will of man.
I'm not the first person to arrive at this conclusion either: some economists have studied "cycles" of market change that seem to reflect more of the human subconscious than intentional changes.
I agree with that, economy became too complex for the human brain, we can no longer properly control it. Thats evident in those times where everyone loses because everyone is trying to not lose.
Jonblaze
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Feb, 2010 01:36 am
@manored,
manored;123926 wrote:
I agree with that, economy became too complex for the human brain, we can no longer properly control it. Thats evident in those times where everyone loses because everyone is trying to not lose.



I think you hit the nail on the head. We study a phenomenon in business school called the bullwhip effect* where every person in a supply chain -acting completely rational given the limited information about the future- ends up creating a system of sustained chaos and inefficiency. Only through cooperation does the system act in a "rational" way.

*Bullwhip effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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