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Hurricane Season 2010

 
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Sep, 2010 09:25 am
The local weatherman told us today that our area has four more weeks of serious concern. But nothing is heading our way.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Sep, 2010 12:51 pm
@edgarblythe,
Glad to hear it, edgar.

In the meantime we have TD12, also looking like it wants to head towards Bermuda.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201012_5day.gif
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Sep, 2010 01:03 pm
Moving Igor to the current page...

Watch out, Bermuda!!!

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_5day.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_model.gif
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Sun 12 Sep, 2010 01:06 pm
@JPB,
Quote:
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 04:28 am
Igor appears to be the strongest storm of the season - so far.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 08:31 am
@edgarblythe,
Indeed. Let's hope he recurves as expected and doesn't make landfall as a major hurricane.
Letty
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 12:17 pm
@JPB,
My word, JPB. The weather channel here keep pronouncing that potential monster's name as EYEgor.

http://images.zaazu.com/img/girl02-female-roll-eyes-smirk-smiley-emoticon-000471-large.gif
Rockhead
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 12:24 pm
@Letty,
no, it's I-Gor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jB4S7fhrdbA

what hump? Wink
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 12:30 pm
The projection is for Igor to be at 64 degrees W and 28 degrees N on Saturday morning. Julia is scheduled to be at 47 degrees W and 28 degrees N at the same time. The distance between them appears to be about 300 (statute) miles.
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 12:37 pm
@realjohnboy,
Dr Masters wrote:
One wild card may be the intensification of Julia behind Igor. If Julia develops into a hurricane and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could interact, affecting the track of Igor unpredictable ways. However, it currently appears the Julia will be much weaker than Igor, and will probably have little impact on her big brother's track.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 04:09 pm
It is probably too early to conjecture on this, Jaye, but as I recall Earl was pushed offshore by a trough of air which swept in from the west just in the nick of time. You alerted us to that.
Please keep us up to date on what might be going on as the week progresses. I need Igor (which I pronounce as E-gore) to turn east.
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Mon 13 Sep, 2010 05:09 pm
@realjohnboy,
more from Jeff Masters wrote:
The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass.


The ensemble models currently show the recurvature to be strong enough to miss Bermuda as well

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201011_ensmodel.gif
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Sep, 2010 10:10 am
@JPB,
Looks like Bermuda is going to take a direct hit with a Cat 2 Igor.

High surf along the eastern seaboard expected.

Quote:
Wave forecast for Igor
Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 11 foot waves on Saturday.
0 Replies
 
panzade
 
  3  
Reply Tue 14 Sep, 2010 11:30 am
Two weeks to go folks. I am feeling lucky and blessed. The hurricane shutters will not see the light of day this year!
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 15 Sep, 2010 09:33 am
@panzade,
Hope so, panz!

Not to be outdone by Igor, Julia has quickly jumped up to a Cat 4. It's only the second time in recorded history for two Cat 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time.

Dr Masters wrote:
his morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period.


Update on Igor
Quote:
By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday.


Update on Julia
Quote:
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas.
panzade
 
  1  
Reply Wed 15 Sep, 2010 05:05 pm
@JPB,
I shouldda kept my mouth shut.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2010 04:23 pm
@JPB,
It's looking like Igor might maintain Cat 3 strength at it approaches Bermuda. That is not good news.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Thu 16 Sep, 2010 05:40 pm
And we haven't mentioned Karl since he was Invest 92 headed for the Yucatan. He's crossed the peninsula and is now back in the GOM as Hurricane Karl. He's expected to make landfall along the central Mexican coastline as a Cat 2 storm sometime on Saturday and proceed on a westerly path across Mexico. I'll be curious to see what happens to the TD as he enters the waters of the Pacific.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201013.gif

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201013_ensmodel.gif
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Fri 17 Sep, 2010 08:50 am
@JPB,
Yikes! Karl got stronger overnight. Cat 3 approaching the coast of Mexico.
0 Replies
 
JPB
 
  1  
Reply Thu 23 Sep, 2010 04:38 pm
Matthew is going to make for a messy week in Central America and the Yucatan.

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/images/at201015_5day.gif
 

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