The local weatherman told us today that our area has four more weeks of serious concern. But nothing is heading our way.
Glad to hear it, edgar.
In the meantime we have TD12, also looking like it wants to head towards Bermuda.
Moving Igor to the current page...
Watch out, Bermuda!!!
Igor appears to be the strongest storm of the season - so far.
Indeed. Let's hope he recurves as expected and doesn't make landfall as a major hurricane.
My word, JPB. The weather channel here keep pronouncing that potential monster's name as EYEgor.
The projection is for Igor to be at 64 degrees W and 28 degrees N on Saturday morning. Julia is scheduled to be at 47 degrees W and 28 degrees N at the same time. The distance between them appears to be about 300 (statute) miles.
It is probably too early to conjecture on this, Jaye, but as I recall Earl was pushed offshore by a trough of air which swept in from the west just in the nick of time. You alerted us to that.
Please keep us up to date on what might be going on as the week progresses. I need Igor (which I pronounce as E-gore) to turn east.
more from Jeff Masters wrote:
The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 10 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without hitting the U.S. or Canada. While the trough expected to recurve Igor out to sea is not as sharp as the troughs that recurved Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, it should still be strong enough to keep Igor from hitting the U.S. However, Newfoundland, Canada could see a close pass.
The ensemble models currently show the recurvature to be strong enough to miss Bermuda as well
Looks like Bermuda is going to take a direct hit with a Cat 2 Igor.
High surf along the eastern seaboard expected.
Wave forecast for Igor
Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 11 foot waves on Saturday.
Two weeks to go folks. I am feeling lucky and blessed. The hurricane shutters will not see the light of day this year!
Hope so, panz!
Not to be outdone by Igor, Julia has quickly jumped up to a Cat 4. It's only the second time in recorded history for two Cat 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time.
Dr Masters wrote:
his morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period.
Update on Igor
By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday.
Update on Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas.
I shouldda kept my mouth shut.
It's looking like Igor might maintain Cat 3 strength at it approaches Bermuda. That is not good news.
And we haven't mentioned Karl since he was Invest 92 headed for the Yucatan. He's crossed the peninsula and is now back in the GOM as Hurricane Karl. He's expected to make landfall along the central Mexican coastline as a Cat 2 storm sometime on Saturday and proceed on a westerly path across Mexico. I'll be curious to see what happens to the TD as he enters the waters of the Pacific.
Yikes! Karl got stronger overnight. Cat 3 approaching the coast of Mexico.
Matthew is going to make for a messy week in Central America and the Yucatan.