Hurricane Season 2010

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A
LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947
MB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER
A COLDER OCEAN. AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD
BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS
ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL
HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE
STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE
CONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 32.5N 75.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 34.8N 74.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 38.0N 72.7W 85 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 41.7N 69.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 46.5N 64.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Tropical Storm Warning for Suffolk, MA

Local Radar Map
Updated 3 Sept 2010 8:35 am Local Time

Issued by The National Weather Service
Boston, MA
5:46 am EDT, Fri., Sep. 3, 2010

... TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

... NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED ALL SECTIONS.

... PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL. ALSO... THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 57 PERCENT.

... WINDS... A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING.

... STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... WITH THE PRESENT TRACK PROJECTION AND TIMING... STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS COAST. A STORM SURGE UP TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME SPLASHOVER DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE.

... INLAND FLOODING... THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE HERE... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES. FOR RHODE ISLAND AND NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS... 1 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS TRACK DEPENDENT AND COULD SHIFT DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF EARL.

... RIP CURRENTS... THE WORST OF THE HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE FRIDAY AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. EARL WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY... HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY TURBULENT INTO THE WEEKEND DESPITE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EASING SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY. BEACH GOERS SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE BEACH CLOSURES FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. THE MOST DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES.

More Information
... HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...

.AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA... SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA... SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA... BARNSTABLE MA... DUKES MA AND NANTUCKET MA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS... A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... EASTERN ESSEX MA... SUFFOLK MA... EASTERN NORFOLK MA... SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI... EASTERN KENT RI... BRISTOL RI... WASHINGTON RI... NEWPORT RI AND BLOCK ISLAND RI.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NORTHERN BRISTOL MA... WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION... AT 5 AM EDT... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3N... LONGITUDE 74.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MA. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 105 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW... HURRICANE EARL IS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TODAY AND PASS 50 TO 100 MILES SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET TONIGHT.

EARL WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS... AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT.

.NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON AROUND 1 PM EDT... OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

As I recall, you know football.