Is Greece going to set off the long feared next wave of the Great Recession?

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the IMF, the EU Banks and the EU leadership agreed to a reduction to the principal value of Greek debt, provided the Greeks have already enacted sorely need structural reforms designed to end their long-term dependence on government employment asnd pensions and have some real economic growth going for them. In the absence of that, the Greeks will need endless bailouts. That, I believe is the motivation for the EU intransigence on the matter, and I agree with them on it.

georgeob1 wrote:

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the IMF, the EU Banks and the EU leadership agreed to a reduction to the principal value of Greek debt, provided the Greeks have already enacted sorely need structural reforms designed to end their long-term dependence on government employment asnd pensions and have some real economic growth going for them. In the absence of that, the Greeks will need endless bailouts. That, I believe is the motivation for the EU intransigence on the matter, and I agree with them on it.

Well, it's nice to see that you have a firm opinion.

Finance ministers are debating Athens’ demands for a loan that would tide the country over until June, allowing time to negotiate a permanent solution for Greece’s economic woes. The sums involved are large, and the Greek demands raise questions about the monetary and macroeconomic framework of the entire eurozone. They should not be agreed too hastily. But these issues, important though they are, should not blind politicians to Greece’s outsize geopolitical significance.



This is a country that bridges north and south, and east and west, like no other. It forms Nato’s southern tip. And the relationships it enjoys with Russia, Iran, China and others are unique within the alliance. Even if keeping Athens securely inside the European political and security order were to come at a high price, it is one that is likely to be worth paying.
Greece is responsible for securing a large and volatile part of the EU’s external border. This role is only likely to become more important, given the conflicts unfolding in north Africa and the Middle East.
The country’s strategic importance as a gateway to Europe has grown — even as its economy has shrunk by a quarter. It is one of the few eurozone countries that meet their Nato commitment for military spending (because of which, incidentally, it ranks among the most important customers of German and French weapons makers).
Politicians elsewhere in Europe are understandably concerned that their taxpayers will be made to pay for Greece’s past fiscal profligacy. But they should also remember that the country’s valuable contribution to the common defence of Europe goes largely uncompensated.

Together all that will clearly eclipse any risks associated weith an exposed southeast flank in the region.

You haven't offered any useful commentary on this tradeoff yet.

The German word schuld means both debt and guilt.

It seems (as of now) that the "No-vote" will get a majority, by about 3%.