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Is Greece going to set off the long feared next wave of the Great Recession?

 
 
ehBeth
 
  0  
Reply Wed 1 Jul, 2015 04:30 pm
@georgeob1,
I agree with most of the post except for

georgeob1 wrote:
an unusually high levels of government employment.


I'd agree there was a high level of government pay cheques - but employment, not so much.
georgeob1
 
  0  
Reply Wed 1 Jul, 2015 04:43 pm
@ehBeth,
OK paychecks. Certainly a big pension load was an important factor.
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Wed 1 Jul, 2015 11:31 pm
@georgeob1,
The latest poll hints that the majority of Greeks may be willing to vote against their government.
The GPO poll said 47 percent of people are leaning toward a “yes” vote, and “no” votes with 43 percent.
GPO interviewed 1,000 adults on Tuesday, the margin of error is 3.1 %.
0 Replies
 
Lordyaswas
 
  0  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 12:34 am
As Walter seems to look down on any links or articles from what he calls the "Torygraph", here's something from the very left and liberal Guardian.

Personally I've found that The Telegraph have always been pretty accurate when it comes to this sort of stuff, but it is a fact that it is a more right leaning newspaper, and that either intimidates or annoys some people.

It is amusing that I seem to be trying to show (leftist) Greece's side in all this, using articles from a right leaning paper and then being picked up on it by the seemingly left leaning Walter, who appears to be supporting the capitalist bankers and politicians who are driving through right wing austerity measures.

Funny ol' weld, innit.


Now, a piece from Seumus Milne in yesterday's Guardian,.....

Syriza can’t just cave in. Europe’s elites want regime change in Greece


It’s now clear that Germany and Europe’s powers that be don’t just want the Greek government to bend the knee. They want regime change. Not by military force, of course – this operation is being directed from Berlin and Brussels, rather than Washington.

But that the German chancellor Angela Merkel and the troika of Greece’s European and International Monetary Fund creditors are out to remove the elected government in Athens now seems beyond serious doubt. Everything they have done in recent weeks in relation to the leftist Syriza administraton, elected to turn the tide of austerity, appears designed to divide or discredit Alexis Tsipras’s government.

They were at it again today, when Tsipras offered what looked like almost complete acceptance of the austerity package he had called a referendum on this Sunday. There could be no talks, Merkel responded, until the ballot had taken place.


There’s no suggestion of genuine compromise. The aim is apparently to humiliate Tsipras and his government in preparation for its early replacement with a more pliable administration. We know from the IMF documents prepared for last week’s “final proposals” and reported in the Guardian that the creditors were fully aware they meant unsustainable levels of debt and self-defeating austerity for Greece until at least 2030, even on the most fancifully optimistic scenario.

That’s because, just as the earlier bailouts went to the banks not the country, and troika-imposed austerity has brought penury and a debt explosion, these demands are really about power, not money. If they are successful in forcing Tsipras out of office, a slightly less destructive package could then be offered to a more house-trained Greek leader who replaced him.

Hence the European Central Bank’s decision to switch off emergency funding of Greece’s banks after Tsipras called the referendum on an austerity scheme he had described as blackmail. That was what triggered the bank closures and capital controls, which have taken Greece’s crisis to a new level this week as it became the first developed country to default on an IMF loan.

The EU authorities have a deep aversion to referendums, and countries are routinely persuaded to hold them again if they give the wrong answer. The vote planned in Greece is no exception. A barrage of threats and scaremongering was unleashed as soon as it was called.

One European leader after another warned Greeks to ignore their government and vote yes – or be forced out of the eurozone, with dire consequences. Already the class nature of the divide between the wealthier yes and more working-class no camps is stark. The troika’s hope seems to be that if Tsipras is defeated by fear of chaos, Syriza will split or be forced from office in short order. The euro elite insists it is representing the interests of Portuguese or Irish taxpayers who have to pick up the bill for bailing out the feckless Greeks – or will be enraged by any debt forgiveness when they have been forced to swallow similar medicine. The reality is the other way round.

Not only has no German or any other EU taxpayer taken any loss bailing out Greece. The real fear in Brussels and Berlin is not that people in countries such as Spain and Portugal who have taken the brunt of eurozone austerity will oppose relief for ravaged Greece – but that they’ll want an end to austerity and their own debts written off as well.

That’s what they call “moral hazard”. But it has nothing to do with morality and everything to do with a dysfunctional currency union, a destructive neoliberal economic model enforced by treaty and an austerity regime maintained to ensure a return to profitability on corporate terms.

That’s why Merkel and the ECB mandarins want Greece’s surrender. Upstart democratic governments that challenge austerity must be crushed: the real risk of contagion is as much political as financial. This is, after all, a system where unelected institutions and other states have the power to override elected governments – in fact to impose not only policies but effectively governments too, as we may be about to see in Greece. Anti-democratic firewalls are built into Europe’s institutions.

The achilles heel of Syriza has been its simultaneous commitment to ending disastrous austerity and remaining in the euro. That has reflected Greek public opinion. But there was never going to be an honourable compromise with the creditors, or much mileage in trying to persuade the authorities they were good Europeans. For the euro elite, the dangers of Grexit are outweighed by the risk that larger states could follow a successful Greek stand against austerity.

Tsipras and Syriza’s determination to stay in the eurozone come what may has seriously weakened Greece’s hand. The economic dislocation of jumping off the euro train would doubtless be severe in the short term, though the costs of permanent austerity would almost certainly be greater thereafter.

But Syriza insiders say there is little preparation for what anyway may be forced on them. The relentless pressure of the EU bureaucracy demands a strong and clear-headed response. Right now, for example, that means the Athens government immediately taking control of its banks, currently shutting down all transactions.

The worst outcome of this crisis would be for Syriza to implement the austerity it was elected to end. A yes vote in next weekend’s referendum, if it goes ahead, would probably lead to the government’s fall, and almost certainly new elections. But even a no vote, which would offer the best chance for Greece, would need to be followed by more radical measures if the government was going to strengthen its negotiating hand or prepare the ground for euro exit.

The real risk across Europe is that if Syriza caves in or collapses, that failure will be used to turn back the rising tide of support for anti-austerity movements such as Podemos in Spain, or Sinn Féin in Ireland, leaving the field to populists of the right.

Either way, any Greek euro deal that fails to write off unrepayable debt or end the austerity squeeze will only postpone the crisis. If the Syriza government survives, it will have to change direction. Its fate, and its chaotic confrontation with the eurozone’s overlords, is going to shape all of Europe’s future.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jul/01/syriza-cave-in-elites-regime-change
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 12:40 am
@Lordyaswas,
It's actually less related to "left" or "right" but more to those papers, which oppose the euro Wink
(The Independent had a good opinion today/yesterday as well)
Lordyaswas
 
  -1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 12:57 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Sorry, I must have misunderstood the terms and conditions, Walter.

I didn't know that only pro euro links could be provided.

If you like, you could always supply me with a list of good and dutiful newspapers to quote in future, as it would save us both a lot of time. Wink
Lordyaswas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 01:18 am
@georgeob1,
Georgeob:-
"In short there is no shortage of potential fault here, but at the same time Greece appears to be in a league of its own in terms of financial irresponsibility, and I believe that is the defining problem."


Nope. Sorry, but I disagree.

The bankers, hedge funders, financiers and politicians driving through a Federalist program are mostly to blame, for manipulating it so that Greece was allowed into the Euro in the first place.

I say manipulated, as that is the only reason I can think of apart from gross and utter incompetence.

The Euro club had to be expanded and rolled out through as many countries as possible, as quickly as possoble.
Any twat with an abacus could see within seconds that Greece had a basket case economy at the time of inclusion.

The Federalists agenda had to be met at all costs, including the setting of Greece off down the road of massive debt and eventual ruin.

If they had stayed in the Drachma they would have had similar problems but would have at least had sovereign flexibility over their currency which would have allowed them to devalue and/or raise interest rates.

The aforementioned band of thugs, better known as the Troika and attendant powermongers, should bear at least 50% of the blame.

A better analogy than the sweet shop one would possibly be a heroin dealer waiting outside the school gates, waiting for a sucker to come along and become reliant, in order to progress the dealer's ambitions in life.

Slightly rough around the edges, but not far off the mark.
Walter Hinteler
 
  0  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 01:21 am
@Lordyaswas,
Very Happy
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 03:08 am
@ehBeth,
ehBeth wrote:

hawkeye10 wrote:
but if the operator of the candy store invited the kids in, enthusiatically, then the operator gets the blame for anything that goes wrong not the kids.


you stop obese people from eating in your restaurant? do you request notes from their doctors re their dietary requirements/limits? do you have blood pressure machines and glucose meters that you require people to use?

your analogy doesn't work.


A better one

Quote:
The Greeks, Italians, Spaniards and Irish walk into a bar, where the French and Germans are the bartenders. It’s happy hour, and the Germans and the French are serving half-price drinks. Although everyone quickly drinks too much, the bartenders keep on serving. Eventually, the inebriated customers head home and get into all kinds of trouble -- fights, car accidents, some broken windows.

So who’s to blame? Clearly, the Greeks shouldn’t have drunk so much. However, the French and Germans also shouldn’t have served the Greeks when they were clearly drunk -- especially if the French and Germans mind having broken glass in their neighborhood.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/01/the-forgotten-origins-of-greeces-terrible-crisis-will-make-you-think-twice-about-whos-to-blame/?tid=hpModule_79c38dfc-8691-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394&hpid=z12
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 03:56 am
@Lordyaswas,
What's worse is that everyone knew, going in, that Greece was a financial basket case, and that the drachma would collapse in due course, whatever the government did, because tax evasion is the favorite indoor sport of the population, which nevertheless demanded one of the most generous social welfare systems then operating in Europe. It was like selling heroin around the corner from the rehab center.

As for the thread title, this is typical Whackeye bullshit. No one is fearing a next wave of any recession, other than countries whose financial houses are not in order, and who have every reason to be apprehensive. The skittish in financial markets, which is most of those jokers, will sill their pants when (not if) Greece defaults, but financial life will go on, and stable economies will not be hurt by this.
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 05:14 am
@Setanta,
Over 40% of Grecian GNP is based upon EXPORTING refined petroleum feedstocks and chemicals. Duhh. This is something that we can take up the slck by kicking up the crackers in Italy.

I saw that another critical product of their GNP is the export of "non-fillet fish" and "fish products" and aluminum plate.
GDP is heavily bsed upon tourism .

"Greek Economist" a proposed oxymoronto add to the pantheon.

Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 05:45 am
@farmerman,
What Merkel thought in 2011 about the Greek crisis, a phone call (during her Vietnam trip) with her personal assistant, taped in Berlin by the NSA
http://i58.tinypic.com/29m3k1g.jpg
(Source: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 02.07.2015)

The UK's Intelligence Services taped her phone with German Chancellery Director-General for EU Affairs Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut, ahead of a European Union Summit to discuss a joint German French response to the financial crisis in Greece.
Quote:
EU Summit: Germans Prepared to Oppose Special Solutions for Greek Financial Crisis (TS//SI//OC/NF)

(TS//SI//OC/NF) Ahead of yesterday's EU summit to discuss a Franco-German bailout plan for Greece (a breakthrough is not expected until another summit on Wednesday), German Chancellery Director-General for EU Affairs Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut provided on 14 October an overview of what Berlin planned to ask for and would be prepared to support. First, the German government wanted solutions that work within the context of current European legislation; accordingly, it would not agree to giving the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) a banking license, establishing a joint EFSF-European Central Bank Special Purpose Vehicle, or any other measures that would require legislative changes among the member states. On the other hand, the Germans would support a special IMF fund into which the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations would pool funds for the purpose of bolstering eurozone bailout activities. Meyer-Landrut also believed that a resolution of the Greek crisis will require greater private-sector involvement than was first thought, and that the eurozone must look beyond the technical aspects of a deal and focus instead on the actual progress that Greece will have to make, as regards both legislation and implementation. It was his further opinion that a full-term team will have to be ensconced in Athens for the purpose of monitoring the situation.


2nd Party British

German leadership

Z-3/OO/549834-11, 211414Z
Source: wikileaks
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Thu 2 Jul, 2015 07:55 am
I believe that pursuing the blame game regarding Greece's qualifications for entry in the EU or indeed the Eurozone is largely a wasted and distracting effort. I'll readily agree that the chronic public spending/budgetary/debt and economic inefficiency problems of Greek Governments since WWII were well-known to the EU leaders, and that they erred badly in relaxing the Financial Stability Pact & rules shortly after creating the common currency they were designed to protect, and doing so without replacing them with any other constraints or modalities. However (1) they had some problems of their own to attend to; (2) they had every right to expect that Greece would at least in part live up mto the financial committments it made when it signed up to the common currency and the collateral benefits it gave them; and (3) there were and still are important geopolitical considerations that make drawing Greece into the European orbit a matter of lasting importance for them and us.

Such errors are easily seen in retrospect but very frequently missed in prospect in the course of human history. All powers, great and small, make them, even the British.

From a geopolitical perspective Greece remains significantly connected to the Middlle East and the vestiges of the Byzantine world of which it was once a major part. That was very significant during the Cold War as Greece's Mediterranean position on the Agean,Ionian and Adriatic Seas was a crucial buffer on the southeast flank of NATO. It remains significant now with the turmoil in the Middle East and the new assertiveness of Russian under Putin, who appears to see himself as a second Nicholas I (Czar during the mid 19th century) with his obsessions about empire, Russia and it's Orthodox/Byzantine legacy. I don't know to what extent this may have influenced European thinking, but the significance and potential are real.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Fri 3 Jul, 2015 02:49 am
Quote:
Suppose senior government officials in Greece had concluded that the euro was a failed experiment, that the rest of the continent would never extend reasonable terms to their country and would instead doom it to perpetual recession, and that the only way to save Greece from disaster -- and Europe, too -- was to begin the process of unwinding the common currency.

They'd have encountered a major obstacle to leaving the euro: Greeks really like it. To get rid of it, the country's leaders would have had just one option: sabotage negotiations with the creditors, blame them for being unreasonable, and then eventually tell voters that Greece has no choice but to go back to the drachma.

If that's the Greek strategy, as Simon Nixon speculates in The Wall Street Journal, it seems to be working:

Quote:
If [Prime Minister Alexis] Tsipras had set out in January to take Greece out of the eurozone, it is very hard to think of anything he would have done differently. He won the election on a pledge to respect the overwhelming desire of voters to remain in the eurozone, which meant he had no choice but to go through the motions of negotiating with Greece’s creditors for as along as they were willing to indulge him. If Grexit was always his goal, then his only challenge was to ensure the talks dragged on until the bailout expired, capital controls were introduced and the country defaulted, making a euro exit hard to avoid.

If this was Mr. Tsipras’s plan, he has played it perfectly.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/07/02/wonkbook-why-greeces-socialists-just-might-be-political-masterminds/?ref=yfp

That is what I said....

I am pretty incredulous of this unexamined lacking in evidence assumption that these socialists are incompetent politicians. Hell, from what I have seen so far I would seriously consider an argument that they are heroic as well.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 11:20 am
Well it's the day before the referendum and the spotty poll data I have seen suggests a close vote.The Greek PM Tsipras is vociferously urging a NO vote and both he and Financial Minister Varofakis are loudly predicting that Europe will offer them a (presumably) good deal quickly, even after a public rejection of the now expired EU offer.

So far since their election, the forecasts of this pair regarding their lenders' behavior have fallen very far short of what has actually occurred, and sympathy for them among EU political leaders appears to have vanished. Certainly the economic situation of the Greek people has deteriorated significantly since they elected the Syriza coalition government and abandoned an austerity program that was actually beginning to grow the Greek economy, already yielding them both GDP growth and a government budget surplus.

It's natural to look for a rational strategy behind the actions of this odd pair of Greek Syriza protagonists in this affair, however difficult it may be to find one, amidst all that has occurred. I suspect the appetite for political power is a significant element in their behavior - they have certainly achieved that, and may even hold on to it.

Sadly the two sides have not really been talking to each other. The Syriza argument has been that the debt is unfair; the money should not have been lent to previous governments ,and certainly should not be paid back by the Greek people ; it is somehow an assault on their dignity. Their EU interlocutors, focused on the stagnation of the Greek economy ; -- low productivity, high unemployment and a rigid inflexible labor market; its inability to sustain it's existing burden of government expenditures for everything, ranging from essential operations to a bloated pension and employment structure as well as social welfare spending; chronic tax evasion and low capiral investment; -- want to see structural reforms in the economy so that Greece can excape a decades long and continuing need for external funds.

Frankly I strongly suspect some reduction to the debt owed would have occurred had Syriza not been elected and the the reforms been kept in place, and will eventusally occur, no matter what the outcome of the current issue. The real issue is, will the Greek government make the structural reforms need for a viable economy. Ultimately everything including their relationship to the EU will likely depend on that.
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 12:26 pm
@georgeob1,
The real issue is that Greece has NATO military bases that are vital to the EU as well as the United States. A "Grexit" of the EU could also jeopardize a NATO withdrawal from Greece.

Plus, Greece will look for money elsewhere, possibly Russia or/and China. China is eager to invest in Europe, hoping to partially control of what happens in Europe.

There is much more at stake then simply defaulting interest payments.
We'll see with the referendum what will happen in the near future. Tsipras said that he'll step down if the Greek population casts a Yes vote!
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 12:40 pm
@CalamityJane,
Well back when we kept carriers regularly in the Mediterranean we routinely did NATO Naval and air exercises with the Greeks in the Ionian and southern Agean seas. I found that one of the rules of the game was to always let the Greeks think they won, no matter what we were doing, air-to-air or air to ground engagemnents. Otherwise they would get in a snit and go home. I suspect in this and other areas the value of Greece to their allies, both economic and military, is their location, not what they contribute.

I've travelled around the country a lot and found the people very amiable, interesting and agreeable (once you get past the occasional bit of Xenophobia), though overall they appear to have a fairly low threshold of indignation.

I do recall once on a short visit to Thessalonika I engaged a taxi driver to show me some interesting points in the city in the time I had before departing. Among the places he took me was Mustafa Kemal's (Attaturk) childhood home - now a museum. It was very interesting. and. as we left. I thanked the driver for taking me there. He said of Kemal, "He was a good man..... for a Turk".
CalamityJane
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 12:53 pm
@georgeob1,
Yes, that's part of their mentality (indignation). The Germans were upset when they heard that Greek bus drivers got an extra bonus if they showed up at their place of work on time. Germans, who are more than punctual, thought it was indicative of wasted taxpayer's money, whereas in Greece it's not uncommon to be late for work.

We're (EU) dealing with all kinds of characteristics innate to nationalities that had no consideration in any EU documentations which are in the meantime so complex and comprehensive, even lawyers stumble over them. Basically, it's all about peoples mentality and once you disregard this important issue, you've got trouble.
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 12:59 pm
@CalamityJane,
I agree. The EU has lofty aims and has so far been remarkably successful, but it faces the contradictions to which you referred in a very severe way. In particular its remarkable political success so far has come precisely from evading the core sovereignty issues and skirting them in part through the creadion of a administrative, bureaucratic quasi state. This entails its own limitations and problems after the passage of enough time. Now both matters appear to be converging; i.e. bureaucratic sclerosis and the emergence of sovereignty issues as with the UK, and perhaps others including Hungary.
Foofie
 
  0  
Reply Sat 4 Jul, 2015 02:58 pm
@georgeob1,
It might be the right time for Greece to have a Toga Party, a la the movie Animal House (Jim Belushi).

But, on a more serious note, perhaps the EU should give Greece a discounted debt, based on European culture owing something to those Greek philosophers of yesteryear? Without Greece, where would European civilization be?

It is ironic that the descendants of the barbarians are now demanding that the descendants of Greek culture pay their bills! Somewhere in the ether Joel Gray is singing, "Money makes the world go 'round!" (from Cabaret).
 

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