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Why will the G.O.P. become more, not less, extreme?

 
 
dyslexia
 
  2  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 01:35 pm
@Brandon9000,
yes brandon, I'm sure you are one of the pure as driven snow republicans, but that stills leaves you in the minority.
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 01:40 pm
@dyslexia,
Not this time.

The less than pure democrats will come up short once again.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 02:52 pm
@Debra Law,
Quote:
Speaking of history, it was noted by a pundit that the only Republican tickets to win the presidency after the Great Depression are the tickets with a Bush or a Nixon
That truly surprising bit of presidential history was initially noted by James Carville.

If the Republican party, in order to regain electoral opportunity, must move its center over to the left and again become a moderate party, then we need to imagine how this will happen. As I perceive the situation, two blocks in that community will either have to join this shift or form up as a third party; the acutely religious voters and that other portion of the talk radio audience who aren't keenly religious...but that entails a concurrent shift to moderation by the talk radio people (along with their online and print reflections). I find it difficult to imagine these people shifting because extremism is their language and their reason for being.

There are some very real problems here for the movement. Particularly if tomorrow's win is big.



Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 03:20 pm
@Debra Law,
Debra Law wrote:
Perhaps an in-depth study of changing party coalitions through the ages might help. Perhaps a review of this book might help us gain insight:

Changing Party Coalitions: The Mystery of the Red State - Blue State Alignment.

That looks interesting -- thanks!
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 05:15 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AktiswHTNs
Extreme? The Republicans?
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 05:33 pm
@edgarblythe,
you betcha.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 05:48 pm
Josh Marshall addresses the future of palin question...
Quote:
To use a different analogy I think Palin (and perhaps Joe the Plumber too) appeal to the brainstem of conservatism, where the most primitive and persistent impulses are registered, even as the areas of higher reasoning and cognition (frontal lobes and all that) are flat-lining or tracking into oblivion.

Even a week or so back a poll of Republicans found that Palin came in third behind Romney and Huckabee in their choice for a 2012 nominee.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that only the conservative 'intellectuals' have a beef with Palin. But I'm pretty sure the post-election view is going to seem very different. The chatter out of the McCain campaign only confirms what her two months on the public stage has made painfully clear. Palin wasn't simply unprepared for intense scrutiny of a national campaign. The woman is an ignoramus of almost unprecedented magnitude in the annals of national politics. It's not just that virtually every-non-Republican has a negative view of her. I just don't see a national party getting behind someone like that. And before you snark, "What about George Bush?" Sorry but there's no comparison. Whatever else I think of him, he's not a moron. And while he appears to be astoundingly incurious, there's simply no comparison to Palin.

I guess I could imagine a rump Republican party nominating Palin. It could be Palin with perhaps Mark Levin as veep to nail down the all important angry, middle-aged DC Jewish male, right-wing ravanchist vote and Joe the Plumber to run her Phalangist paramilitary. But my strong hunch is that if McCain loses tomorrow that will be the end of Sarah Palin's national political career even if there are some persistent twitches and jerks over the coming months.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/

It is possible that, post election, things might look and sort out differently than things appear at the present. We'll see. But I suspect Josh over-estimates the rationalism of too many in the movement. And underestimates their developed power.

From a week or two ago...
Quote:
The former Reagan economic adviser Bruce Bartlett predicts, indeed, that the Republican primaries will turn into a Palin/Gingrich steel-cage death match (from his lips to God’s ears, I say).
http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/51406/index1.html
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:02 pm
@dyslexia,
I thought Hank Jr was a tad smarter than that.
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:05 pm
@edgarblythe,
edgarblythe wrote:

I thought Hank Jr was a tad smarter than that.
rumour has it Hank Jr is not his father's son.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:09 pm
@blatham,
Mr. Mountie wrote:
I find it difficult to imagine these people [i.e., talk radio demagogues] shifting because extremism is their language and their reason for being.


I disagree with this--talk radio hosts are selling a product, just like any other commercial, capitalist venture. When Limbaugh goes on tee-vee, he has bookcases full of his latest book on display behind him.

Extremism is the product they sell, because they know it sells. If it begins to pall on a conservative electorate disillusioned by loosing Congress, and possibly here in a few days loosing the White House, then they'll find a different message which will sell.

I suspect it would take a while for conservatives to adjust, simply because they've been steeped in the extremism, and the hysteria and the hate for so long now. But trust to it, if the party center begins to shift, the commercial interests, such as talk radio hosts, will respond as quickly or more quickly than any other part of the group.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:11 pm
@dyslexia,
I certainly hope the rumor's true.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:16 pm
@Setanta,
I'm inclined to think that those such as Limbaugh et at will follow the same fate as Robert Welch, burying themselves in their own cesspool of idiotic blatherings. (I still have hope for america)
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:20 pm
@dyslexia,
You may be right, but i suspect that most of them, if not including Limbaugh, will trim their sails to wind that blows.
edgarblythe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:20 pm
@dyslexia,
Joe Pyne comes to mind.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 3 Nov, 2008 06:55 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:
I suspect it would take a while for conservatives to adjust, simply because they've been steeped in the extremism, and the hysteria and the hate for so long now. But trust to it, if the party center begins to shift, the commercial interests, such as talk radio hosts, will respond as quickly or more quickly than any other part of the group.


I think that is so, eventually. Perhaps where we are differing is on how long this cultural shift (assuming it continues and expands, which is my assumption) will take and what we might see in the near future.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 08:25 am
Circular firing squad tidbit # 47
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWZHTJsR4Bc&eurl=http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/

On the one hand, you've got Kristol and Barnes, regular Fox senior 'authorities' who pushed Palin into the VP spot (and continue to celebrate her now) and yet you've got Fox now pushing this story - which will not fall easily on the ears of most of that Fox audience.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 08:53 am
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
You may be right, but i suspect that most of them, if not including Limbaugh, will trim their sails to wind that blows.

No need to except Limbaugh. He's a sail-trimmer, too. The first time I heard of him, in fall 2002, I subscribed to his webcasts for a month because I wanted to know what he was all about. At the time, he had to explain to his audience why he supported George Bush's nation-building in Iraq after eight years of heaping scorn upon Clinton's nation building. Limbaugh was so embarrassing that month I almost felt pity for him.
rabel22
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 02:29 pm
@Thomas,
I dont know how anyone can listen to Limbaugh for more than 5 minutes. I listen to conseratives who make an attempt to be reasonable not a demagog like Limbaugh.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 06:59 pm
@Thomas,
The fracturing of the movement is going to cause problems for people like Limbaugh. They can (they will) trim their sails as Thomas suggests but it will not be at all clear in which direction they're better off trimming towards.

Quote:
Well, Republicans were saying before the election that if Obama/Biden won and McCain/Palin lost, things were going to get ugly:

Quote:
Jim Nuzzo, a White House aide to the first President Bush, dismissed Mrs Palin's critics as "cocktail party conservatives" who "give aid and comfort to the enemy".

He told The Sunday Telegraph: "There's going to be a bloodbath. A lot of people are going to be excommunicated. David Brooks and David Frum and Peggy Noonan are dead people in the Republican Party. The litmus test will be: where did you stand on Palin?"


Sure enough:

Quote:
RedState is pleased to announce it is engaging in a special project: Operation Leper.

We're tracking down all the people from the McCain campaign now whispering smears against Governor Palin to Carl Cameron and others. Michelle Malkin has the details.

We intend to constantly remind the base about these people, monitor who they are working for, and, when 2012 rolls around, see which candidates hire them. Naturally then, you'll see us go to war against those candidates.

It is our expressed intention to make these few people political lepers.


Robert Farley has it about right:

Quote:
I expect that the effort will make Palin more toxic to anyone who's not in the Republican base, but won't touch her position within the base. Sarah Palin is too big to fail. Bill Kristol has staked his prestige on Palin's future, and the simple fact that she thought Africa was a country isn't going to make he and his back down. He's too deeply invested in her, and everyone else in the conservative punditariat is too deeply invested in him. If she crashes, everyone goes down. I foresee two possible futures; in one, Kristol starts walking everyone back from the brink in a year or two, and Palin's future Presidential candidacy goes down the memory tube. In the other, we get Sarah! 2012, and a Goldwater style annihilation next time around. I'm guessing door #2.


Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch.
http://crooksandliars.com/
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 09:14 pm
@blatham,
blatham wrote:
The fracturing of the movement is going to cause problems for people like Limbaugh. They can (they will) trim their sails as Thomas suggests but it will not be at all clear in which direction they're better off trimming towards.

Hey, they can always play it safe by attacking whatever Obama is doing. No need to do constructive things for their own side.
 

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