Intrade is reflecting a tanking confidence in McCain as well. Theoretically, this first debate was his best opportunity to gain ground... and he lost some instead. Tough to interpret the real result though, because the opinion may be reflecting disdain for his idiotic political stunt (bogus campaign suspension)(was surprised to see you defend that nonsense, despite your politics). It is possible that the stunt, not the debate, is causing his current drops. In which case the next two debates could bounce him back. I doubt it though.
I think he was only barely outperformed by Obama, but think he'll fair worse in the next two. I further think Palin is severely overmatched by Biden, think that debate will attract a huge audience... and unless she was doing a rope-a-dope with Couric; she is going to be severely, embarrassingly, exposed.
I think McCain is in trouble... but then…we don't yet know what kind of last minute non-issues will become the premier issues.