cicerone imposter wrote:
That "count" doesn't seem to show much progress for Obama for the past several months. Am I wrong?
Um, yeah? I don't know how to explain it in any more depth. Obama has a lead in 'solid' states, a sizable one - 212 to 166 right now.
To get to 270, he needs 58 more EVs than his 'solid states.' He's currently leading, though not by much, in -
MI, where McCain has never had an average lead, and only 2 polls show him having ANY lead out of the last 50 - that's 17, 41 to go.
MN, where McCain has NEVER led, and only one poll out of the last 20 even had him tied - that's 10 more, 31 to go.
PA, where McCain has never had an average lead, and only1 poll has ever showed him leading there - a Zogby internet poll, which is not considered to be a highly rated poll by anyone - that's 21, only 10 to go.
CO, where McCain has never had an average lead, but some polls have shown him ahead - That's 9, only 1 to go. Actually, 269 would be enough to win.
And that's Obama's path to victory. In addition, there's:
VA - currently averaging Obama 47 McCain 48;
NC - currently averaging Obama 44 McCain 47;
FL - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 48;
NV - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 48;
OH - currently averaging Obama 44 McCain 47;
IN - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 47.5.
If Obama wins ANY of those states, it becomes very difficult for McCain to win, without cutting into the old Kerry states. If he wins FL or OH it's over. If he wins VA, it's over.
Put it this way: Obama has multiple paths to victory at this point, where McCain has to win nearly every toss-up state in order to win. One job is much tougher than the other.