CNN Poll: Republicans blamed for financial crisis, Obama up

I've also noticed that these polls haven't affected the voting public; a mystery.

The WaPo/ABC poll shows the same results:


(Source: Washington Post, 24.9.08, page A1)

Economic Fears Give Obama Clear Lead Over McCain In Poll

From my view, this is good news. However, given the ups and downs of this campaign and how the week before becomes history, there is still a chance for this to change.

?? What on earth does that mean, C.I...?

(The polls are a snapshot of the voting public...)

soz, What it means simply that even though the electorate is worried about our economy (according to the polls), the polls on the election still show McCain and Obama in a dead heat. There's a disconnect what we are feeling about our economy, but the voting public still wants McCain at rates seen before this $700 billion debacle.

Um, not really. Obama is in the lead in both national polling and state polling/electoral vote numbers.

Not by a ton, but definitely in the lead; and his numbers have definitely risen in the last week and a half.

Cycloptichorn

OK, but that's what I meant. No, the polls on the election DON'T show McCain and Obama in a dead heat. That's what this thread is about. Recent polls show Obama UP.

CNN poll: Obama 51%, McCain 46%



WaPo/ ABC poll: Obama 52%, McCain 43%

soz, Thanks for that clarification, because I was going on the assumption that there was a disconnect between how Americans felt about our economy, but the conservatives still preferred McCain over Obama - and therefore the polls showed them at a dead heat. It'll be interesting to see how this lead for Obama stays at the current levels; it's still more than 40-days until election day, and much can happen between now and then.

I just hope these sentiments will last until election day.
We so desperately need a change in government. The more people realize
that McCain will be a sore continuation of "business as usual" the better off
we are.

Cyclo, Can you show us the state polls?

www.pollster.com

Cycloptichorn

That "count" doesn't seem to show much progress for Obama for the past several months. Am I wrong?

Um, yeah? I don't know how to explain it in any more depth. Obama has a lead in 'solid' states, a sizable one - 212 to 166 right now.

To get to 270, he needs 58 more EVs than his 'solid states.' He's currently leading, though not by much, in -

MI, where McCain has never had an average lead, and only 2 polls show him having ANY lead out of the last 50 - that's 17, 41 to go.

MN, where McCain has NEVER led, and only one poll out of the last 20 even had him tied - that's 10 more, 31 to go.

PA, where McCain has never had an average lead, and only1 poll has ever showed him leading there - a Zogby internet poll, which is not considered to be a highly rated poll by anyone - that's 21, only 10 to go.

CO, where McCain has never had an average lead, but some polls have shown him ahead - That's 9, only 1 to go. Actually, 269 would be enough to win.

And that's Obama's path to victory. In addition, there's:

VA - currently averaging Obama 47 McCain 48;
NC - currently averaging Obama 44 McCain 47;
FL - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 48;
NV - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 48;
OH - currently averaging Obama 44 McCain 47;
IN - currently averaging Obama 45 McCain 47.5.

If Obama wins ANY of those states, it becomes very difficult for McCain to win, without cutting into the old Kerry states. If he wins FL or OH it's over. If he wins VA, it's over.

Put it this way: Obama has multiple paths to victory at this point, where McCain has to win nearly every toss-up state in order to win. One job is much tougher than the other.

Cycloptichorn

However, as I "recall," Obama had over 200 electoral votes several months ago, and it looks the same today. As a matter of fact, those toss-up states looks a bit more favorable for McCain than Obama, a change from the same period. The trend seems to favor McCain.

"Recall" = not all that reliable.

Just saw some good news on tv; Obama is ahead on at least 5 battleground states.
If he keeps those leads, he wins, but it's still too early to celebrate.

Wednesday, September 24
Race Poll Results Spread
Colorado Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
Colorado InAdv/PollPosition Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
New Hampshire Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 49 McCain +2
National FOX News Obama 45, McCain 39 Obama +6
National Gallup Tracking Obama 47, McCain 44 Obama +3
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 48, McCain 42 Obama +6
Pennsylvania CNN/Time Obama 53, McCain 44 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Strategic Vision (R) Obama 47, McCain 46 Obama +1
Florida Strategic Vision (R) McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3
Michigan CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 46 Obama +5
Colorado CNN/Time Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Washington SurveyUSA Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
Kansas SurveyUSA McCain 53, Obama 41 McCain +12
Montana CNN/Time McCain 54, Obama 43 McCain +11
South Carolina SurveyUSA McCain 58, Obama 39 McCain +19
West Virginia CNN/Time McCain 50, Obama 46 McCain +4
National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
National ABC News/Wash Post Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
National LA Times/Bloomberg Obama 49, McCain 45 Obama +4
National Ipsos-McClatchy Obama 44, McCain 43 Obama +1
Iowa Marist Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
National Battleground Tracking Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2
Virginia NBC/Mason-Dixon McCain 47, Obama 44 McCain +3
New Hampshire Marist Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Michigan MRG of Lansing Obama 43, McCain 46 McCain +3

We're doomed.

Yes, the conservatives destroyed their party with McCain and Palin. Recovery will be difficult if not impossible. Today's polls show Obama leaping ahead so far that it's mathematically almost impossible for McCain to catch up in the weeks ahead. People have seen the light; McCain and Palin are liars and opportunists with an agenda that is geared towards winning the presidency only.

There's too much dirt out there on both of them to overcome for this election. Yes, you are doomed.