9
   

FOLLOW THE MONEY - ELECTION 2008

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 07:53 am
@FreeDuck,
This years deficit just went from $400 billion to $1.1 trillion.

I'm surprised no one has really mentioned that in the press yet. Sure we might recover some of that money in the future but it is all getting paid out now.
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:00 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

It depends on how smart those handling the bailout out are. If we leave it to the experts, at least those I have been listening to, it is possible that the taxpayer will actually profit. The government has the clout and ability to know when the debtors have the money to repay and can go after it and/or know when the property appreciates to its former value, etc. so it can be sold without a loss and the loan repaid. With careful management, what are bad loans can be transformed into good ones, resold, and put things back into solvency.

And the Iraq war will pay for itself. I am sorry but I just don't believe it. (We might want to check the money trail for the experts we are listening to, while we are at it.)

Quote:
Hopefully this process will include better laws to prevent such speculation in the future, and our more benevolent law makers can be convinced that it really is important that people demonstrate a reasonable expectation of ability to repay a loan before a bank is required or encouraged to make one. And the speculators should be required to make good on their debts.

Do you really think those poor forsaken banks (we are actually mostly talking about non-banks in this crisis) were required or encouraged to make these loans by anything other than the prospect of gigantic profits? These loans have been profitable for the institutions making and selling them. Now that they are not any longer, we are asked by these institutions to assume their bad debt.

Quote:
Nobody's hands are clean on this one. But the country is strong and we do have a few smart folks at the helm. I am convinced we'll get through this. I only hope that we emerge much wiser.

I hope you are right. I fear there is more to come.
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:04 am
Again it depends on one's perspective. A deficit is created when more money is spent than is expected to be taken in. If this 'bailout' results in as much or more money taken in than is paid out, then it isn't a true deficit but is rather an unprecedented enormous government owned accounts receivable account. Even though you don't have the money in the bank yet, an accounts receivable is considered an asset, not a debt.

Or, its like taking out a home mortgage that is far larger than what money you have in the bank. Hopefully the value of the house is more than the money owed against it and should appreciate above the down payment and the mortgage and it therefore is considered an investment rather than a debt. (It was violating THAT principle that got us into this mess, however.)

But the chickens have come home to roost. I believe the government is in the process of closing the door to the chicken coop and we have plenty of room to be optimistic.
revel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:06 am
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
we do have a few smart folks at the helm.


Wonder where those smart folks have been hiding themselves at the helm. Where ever they are I wish they would please stand up and come out of hiding.

On the one hand I can see why we have no choice but bail out wall street if we want to keep our retirement, 401k's and whatnot (if what they say is true, not really up my alley to understand), on the other I hope they don't rush into everything without making sure there are some rules in place to keep this from happening again of which btw- McCain was instrumental in helping along and even bragged about not too long ago as well wanting to model our health care along the same lines. Now he is going on about the very same deregulation policies he and Phil Graham was instrumental in putting in place.

Quote:
Opening up the health insurance market to more vigorous nationwide competition, as we have done over the last decade in banking, would provide more choices of innovative products less burdened by the worst excesses of state-based regulation…

You should be able to buy your insurance from any willing provider " the state bureaucracies are no better than national ones. Nationwide insurance markets that ensure broad and vigorous competition will wring out excess costs, overhead, and bloated executive compensation.


http://loomisnews.wordpress.com/2008/09/19/mccain-deregulation-for-health-care-it-worked-for-the-financial-markets/

Quote:
A decade ago, Sen. John McCain embraced legislation to broadly deregulate the banking and insurance industries, helping to sweep aside a thicket of rules established over decades in favor of a less restricted financial marketplace that proponents said would result in greater economic growth.

Now, as the Bush administration scrambles to prevent the collapse of the American International Group (AIG), the nation's largest insurance company, and stabilize a tumultuous Wall Street, the Republican presidential nominee is scrambling to recast himself as a champion of regulation to end "reckless conduct, corruption and unbridled greed" on Wall Street.

"Government has a clear responsibility to act in defense of the public interest, and that's exactly what I intend to do," a fiery McCain said at a rally in Tampa yesterday. "In my administration, we're going to hold people on Wall Street responsible. And we're going to enact and enforce reforms to make sure that these outrages never happen in the first place."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/16/AR2008091603732_pf.html

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:10 am
@FreeDuck,
I do share your lack of confidence that the government is competent to manage much of anything. But I also believe our 'experts' probably know that too and will try to get the commodities acquired through this unprecedented bailout back into the hands of the private sector as quickly as possible.
revel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:16 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfrye, if these so called "experts" are so expert why are having this wall street crises which has been in the hands of private sectors all this time? It is not as though we have operating under a highly regulated financial system and we must do the opposite to change it.

I would think people would want to get to bottom of this crises to see what went wrong to make sure we don't throw more good money after bad first.

Furthemore, I am curious, where is this money coming from?
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:24 am
There is no bottom to get to Revel. They know what happened, why it happened, who is to blame (which is just about everybody), and have done what they felt they had to do to try to fix it. Now we can just hope the numbnuts will put country ahead of politics and fix the system so it doesn't happen again. The rest of us can help by doing less indignant finger pointing and doing what we can to move the process forward.
FreeDuck
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:28 am
@Foxfyre,
I don't agree that they know the what and the how. They are in the emergency room right now trying to stop the bleeding and stabilize the patient. I doubt there has been any analysis or long term decisions made. I doubt they have done much more than scratch the surface.
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:36 am
@FreeDuck,
I disagree. I think they are doing what they believe they need to do. And I think they are not operating in a vacuum, they are consulting people who know what they're doing, and will come up with a plan that will work. There is even less bickering in Congress and our lawmakers actually appear to be trying to cooperate to help instead of hinder for a change. There is still volatility in the market with some nervousness and profit taking this morning, but no panic evident. The big gun corporations with mega investments in the market are acting prudently to help as they can.

There is plenty of room for optimism. This isn't the worst thing that happened to this country and we'll get through it.

FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:40 am
@Foxfyre,
It is clear that we are in deep **** but that is about all that is clear. I am at a loss as to how any conservative can support this bailout.
Foxfyre
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:49 am
@FreeDuck,
I can support it because our life savings are invested in the market and in the bank and we're leaving them there because to withdraw them would make things worse. That's literally putting our money where our mouth is, a conservative principle by the way.

I can support it because the fact that a whole lot of people, Republicans and Democrats in Congress and the White House, over the last two or three decades made some very bad decisions and, because many people acted irresponsibly or unconscionably, are now realizing the consequences. We can't undo those decisions or the results, so we have to do what we have to do to fix what is broken and do it better. To act rather than sit back and do nothing other than assign blame is also a conservative principle.

I can support it because I have run a business and pulled it out of what appeared to be hopeless financial insolvency. So long as assets outnumber liabilities, it is never hopeless and sometimes thinking outside the box and willingness to make educated gambles is the prudent thing to do. The USA has tremendous assets both in material wealth and in the ability and vision of its people. Recognition of that is also a conservative principle.





Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:57 am
What a crock. Let's bail out the banks and trading houses, who got into trouble through a program of lax oversight... by handing a bunch of taxpayer money over to the guy who just a month ago was insisting everything was fine, and give Congress no oversight whatsoever for him?

And we're bailing out foreign banks?

And we're leaving the posh bonuses for those who run the companies in question?

Yeah, right. I do not predict success for this bill this week in Congress. Republicans will vote against it to give them space from Bush, Dems will propose a bill which either includes punishment for the corporations involved OR some housing relief for main street, and the whole works will bog down.

Conservatives don't believe in 'no oversight' situations.

Cycloptichorn
Thomas
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:04 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:
The dirty little secret in campaign financing, however, is that 'reform' limited how much any particular entity or person can give to a candidate. It does not limit how much any particular entity can give in the name of its employees. That is how big unions, big corporations, etc. have and continue to effect influence on the process. It appears that the money is coming from the grass roots when it isn't.

This may very well be true. But even then, the reverse conclusion does not follow. Just because contributions appear to come in small donations from individual donors, it doesn't follow that what we're really seeing is an astroturf campaign by some large organization. Which is what you appear to assume in this case, without supporting evidence.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:30 am
@Thomas,
Perhaps if you used my whole quote, including the disclaimer, Thomas, you wouldn't assume what I assume withouy supporting evidence for your assumption
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 09:34 am
@Cycloptichorn,
http://able2know.org/topic/122904-1
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 10:36 am
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

Again it depends on one's perspective. A deficit is created when more money is spent than is expected to be taken in. If this 'bailout' results in as much or more money taken in than is paid out, then it isn't a true deficit but is rather an unprecedented enormous government owned accounts receivable account. Even though you don't have the money in the bank yet, an accounts receivable is considered an asset, not a debt.
What the heck are you blathering about? Deficit only compares money coming in to money going out in a given year. If they spend $700 billion this year without a revenue source to offset it, it adds to the deficit for the year. Buying an asset doesn't mean they didn't spend the money. It might help reduce future deficits if the future sale of those assets create revenue but it adds to the deficit when purchased, simply because they don't have the cash on hand.

Quote:
I believe the government is in the process of closing the door to the chicken coop and we have plenty of room to be optimistic.
I guess if you don't know the difference between deficit and debt, then sure, you can be optimistic while wearing your rose colored glasses.
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:15 am
@parados,
With the unknown length of time this $700 will begin to really recoup the expenditure, you can bet your bottom dollar that inflation has been put on it's head. If we thought 3% inflation was bad, we ain't seen nut'n yet.

All that "extra" money into our economy without the products and services to back it up has only one way to go, and it ain't gonna be pretty.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  3  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:24 am
@parados,
Most and possibly ALL of the debt you cite is actually an Accounts Receivable account however, which is a whole different thing than spending more than what you take in which creates a true deficit. Accounts Receivable is an asset, not a debt, and the money invested in creating the accounts receivable is a liability, yes, but not a deficit. It will be a deficit only if the money cannot be recouped. There is every reason to believe that much of it, if not all of it, can be recouped.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:28 am
@Foxfyre,
Quote:
There is every reason to believe that much of it, if not all of it, can be recouped.


Laughing

That all depends on the price you buy the assets at. Right now, they are hyper-inflated in price; that's why nobody will touch 'em and the companies are scared to just write them off.

If we buy them at pennies on the dollar - what they are truly worth - we will make some profit in the long run but it will be devastating to the market in general.

If we buy them for anything more then that, we are buying an asset which is almost guaranteed to drop in price from this point forward, and that negative value will sit on our books for years. That's a deficit.

Another factor; the money we're spending to bail out these banks, not just buying their assets, but to keep them afloat - when will these billions get paid back? We're tightening the rules that allowed them to make such obscene profits off of nothing, and their traditional business models don't allow for billions in profits to be given to the US gov't every year. Where are the banks going to get the money to pay us back? Answer, they won't.

The whole thing is a boondoggle, another executive-branch power grab by the same team that brought you Iraq, and it should be opposed. Let the chips fall where they may.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 11:28 am
@Foxfyre,
Fox, You really don't know what you are talking about; accounts receivable is identified as an "asset," but that's what got the banks and finance companies in trouble, because what they called accounts receivable did not have "full value."

They are now finding that most of their accounts receivable is worth about 50% or less of what they show as book value. Swooosh, it just disappeared into thin air.
0 Replies
 
 

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