3
   

Lets get real. Obama is winning.

 
 
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:01 pm
With the over reliance on polls and the marked irrational exuberance of Conservatives and Republicans of late, I thought a reasoned discussion of what is really happening in the presidential race is in order.

First... If you support Obama go now and donate and/or volunteer. My confidence is based on the fact that Obama supporters are fired up, hopeful and will work hard to ensure this victory.

That being said, from now until election day, all the important factors favor Obama; a fact that puts him in a very good position to win.

1) Obama's messages are the right messages for this election. He is the candidate of Change in the minds of Americans (remember this is about strategy). He is the candidate of the middle class, and the candidate trusted to fix the economy. It will be domestic issues that win this election (although Obama's foreign policy is fine too).

2) McCain is trying to mimic Obama; when he decided to be the candidate of "Change", I knew he was sunk. McCain keeps on saying the economy is "fundamentally sound" (an argument that Americans aren't in the mood to buy). McCain does not have the support of the American public on any major issue.

3) The Palin fad will burn out quickly. Palin does solidify the Conservative Christian base, but she comes with significant minuses. The buzz and excitement she brought artificially inflated poll numbers, but the more people learn about her the lower her popularity will be. She will end up being a net negative on the McCain ticket.

4) McCain is being linked with lies and with mean attacks. This is a theme that will continue to build as the election goes on.

5) McCain's big weakness is that he has to appeal to Conservatives and to Independents at the same time-- an awkward position that will be very public very soon (unless he decides to just keep moving to the right).

I expect a lively discussion on these points... but be careful. The next several weeks will prove me right.

- Obama will start to pull ahead in the polls.
- The McCain campaign will start to show signs of desperation, not only in worse attacks... but in signs of disagreements and disorganization in his campaign.
- Republicans will complain louder and louder about the unfairness of the "liberal media".

I say this with confidence because the polls from this early point don't matter. The election has just started in earnest and the debates haven't even happened yet. The battle for the minds of independents has just begun. What matters is who can connect with issues, vision and direction.

This year, Obama has all the advantages.

So, make a donation, talk to your neighbors, and lets finish this job!
 
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:05 pm
@ebrown p,

LOL !!
Quote:
Lets get real. Obama is winning.
Laughing

0 Replies
 
LionTamerX
 
  0  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:05 pm
@ebrown p,
Shhh... Don't tell the conservatives, they'll resort to bad jokes to kill this thread.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:07 pm
@ebrown p,
[sarcasm]Just what this site needs: political hucksterism.[/sarcasm]

Buried.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:07 pm
Good post, I agree.

I see numbers like this -

Quote:

Going back to the first week of 2008, the two main parties have added the following number of voters:

Democrats +184,113
Republicans +24,614


Those are the number of new voters registered in NC. And it's a pattern which is repeating itself all around the country. If only half those new voters come out, NC is going to be damn close.

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:25 pm
@Robert Gentel,
+1 ('cause I appreciate sarcasm)...

You think that the polls at this point are valid compared to an analysis of the messages being put out by the campaigns?
Ramafuchs
 
  -4  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 04:54 pm
@ebrown p,
May I humbly ask a Q?
How many eligible voters will cross the stree( without flags and patriotic songs) and cast their votes.?
I am not quite sure but i presume at the most 51 percent of eligible voters will make use of the democractic right.
If Obama wins( after this 9 years jungle rulöe) do you think that USA will be back to the oft-repeated position of
"THE ONLY SOUP-SIPPING POWER"
I don't think so.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:12 pm
@ebrown p,
Do you whistle by graveyards too?
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  5  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:17 pm
Great - just what the Democrats need. Boastful pride about how "we're winning".

I agree with the donate-and-volunteer part. Otherwise, this thread is the last kind of thing you need. You dont need confident boasts, you need hardnosed realism and vigilance. This race is going to be close. McCain has made up a shitload of terrain over the past month and a half, and only partly thanks to Palin. Though choosing her, for all the mockery she rightly gets, tactically speaking turned out to be a genius gamble too. Bottom line: you guys better start shaping up.

This guy quoted below suffers from his own share of bloviation (inflated egos come with the territory, I guess) -- hence my occasional snips and comments between square brackets -- but he also makes some really good points about confronting the state the race is now in.

Quote:
50 Days to Go and Obama Hits Back (Softly)

By Steve Lombardo

It is noon on Monday, September 15th and things are operating so quickly in the political world that major tactical--and sometimes strategic--campaign changes are happening in minutes [..]. In accordance with the new world order here is our real-time read on what is happening:

1. Obama is hitting back, and the mere act of doing so says volumes. Voters often view the candidate through the prism of the campaign he or she is running. By this measure, the last two Obama spots--an ad that attacks McCain for being tied to lobbyists and one that says he is running a negative campaign--suggest that Obama is not going to be a Michael Dukakis; it tells voters that he will punch back. It also says that Team Obama is reading the same polling we are and believes that it has to change the dynamic or this thing is lost.

2. But this Obama punch seems like a fairly weak body blow. While we think that going after McCain's strength is a good idea, we are not sure what kind of traction this lobbyist charge will get. This is, as they say, pretty "inside baseball." Also, the lobbyist attack may have a hard time sticking to McCain because it is not part of the perception package that people have of him. [..] And if you say you're going to respond to McCain's attacks with "ferocity" and that you're going to "take the gloves off," and then your first few "attack" ads are recycled messages about lobbyists and nonsense about McCain not being able to use a computer...oh boy.

3. We are in a financial meltdown (as of right now the Dow is down 250 points) and Obama is focusing on lobbyists and McCain's inability to email--this is political malpractice. There is a massive financial crisis in this country: Lehman is in bankruptcy, Merrill has been sold and AIG needs a bailout of some sort. And, to this point, we're getting nothing but "statements" from the Obama campaign. The first line of today's WSJ front page article says, "The American financial system was shaken to its core on Sunday..." Team Obama should have torn up its playbook at 5 A.M. and come out swinging with earned and paid media. One look at the results from a recent CNN poll on the most important issue facing the country, coupled with a look at the trend in consumer confidence (as reported by ABC), and an 8-year-old would be able to tell the Obama campaign where it should focus its energies.

[For graphs showing consumer confidence in the pits, and the economy being by far and away the most important issue - and being so by a rapidly increasing margin - see the original post]

4. Negative political messages must tap into a pre-existing belief. In politics, attacks only work if they ring true. It's why the McCain "Paris Hilton" ads [..] struck a nerve. We have said that the surest path to victory for Obama is to attack on the economy and the failings of the Bush administration. However, tying McCain to Bush is falling flat because it just doesn't feel right. [E]verybody knows that John McCain and George W. Bush don't much like each other and haven't seen eye-to-eye on much of anything, including the Iraq War. So tying the two together isn't working all that well. The same holds for Obama's attack on McCain as beholden to lobbyists. It just doesn't fit the frame.

[Nimh: I think the author is buying into the McCain talking points too much here: McCain is beholden to lobbyists, and he did vote with Bush most of the time and whenever it counted - especially once he had his sights on a new run again - and on Iraq he is if anything worse than Bush. But the guy's right, that's not the image people have of him. So what he says next is still true:]

If you're going to run ads that don't fit the frame, you need to launch them VERY EARLY and keep them up for months and months to try and generate some traction. So just starting with these new "hard-hitting" attacks against McCain won't work with only 50+ days left in the campaign...unless Team Obama can hit him with something that feels true.

5. The Obama campaign has been seriously off-stride. Let us count the ways:

  • 1.-3. [Nimh: snipped cause I thought they were silly]

  • 4. The McCain camp's relentless, timely and pointed attacks on Obama are having an effect. The movement to McCain is not just the result of a good convention and the Palin pick. The fact is, they have been hammering Obama senseless. Exhibit A: on Tuesday of last week Obama tries to change the course of the debate by making a major speech on education and attacking McCain on his record in that area. That afternoon, the McCain campaign releases a spot hammering Obama on education and saying that his only accomplishment on education was "legislation to teach comprehensive sex education to kindergarten students." While the veracity of the attack was derided, the spot got a lot of play and fit the perception of Obama.

  • 5. The irony of this campaign is that an Obama team that was so adept at using the Internet to harness the online community for fundraising has been outmaneuvered by the McCain campaign in using viral videos to get its message out and win news cycles.

  • 6. The early, vitriolic and often personal attacks on Palin may have inoculated her (to some extent) from the recent (and reasonable) examinations of her record. In a sense, the liberal bloggers may have done Obama more harm than good on the Palin front.

6. Obama needs to forget Palin and get back to the economy. Team Obama needs to stop going after Palin (it makes him look small, it makes him look like he's beating up on a woman, and it draws unfavorable comparisons to his own lack of experience), hammer McCain on the economy (and be very clear about what his policies will do for voters), and hammer McCain as someone who can't change a Washington culture that he's been a part of for so long (this way you're attacking McCain on his greatest strength--his "maverick-ness").

[Nimh: Bit of an inner contradiction here with point 4 -- attacking McCain as beholden to lobbyists wont fit because "it just doesn't fit the frame," but painting him as someone who's been too long part of the Washington culture will? What's the difference? Anyway, we'll cut him some slack here because of the good points he's also making.]

Current Election Environment

[Nimh: Summarising - Good news for a generic Democrat; low approval for Bush, share of people saying the country is on the wrong track is in the stratosphere. That's what the Democratic candidate should be able to capitalise on.]

LCG Regression Analysis - Vote Projectionis

As we said last week, each candidate got some bounce out of his convention. However, as our regression model shows, McCain's bounce was greater.
There are too few cases in either convention bounce period to compute a line that captures each candidate's convention swing; there just aren't enough polls for a model like that to be significant. What the below line is basically saying is this: Obama had his bounce, McCain has had his bounce, and the two bounces counterbalanced each other but momentum is on McCain's side coming out of the convention period. If this trend continues he wins by +2.3 on Election Day. [..]

[graph in original item]
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:47 pm
@nimh,
nimh wrote:

Great - just what the Democrats need. Boastful pride about how "we're winning".


Just like they need more of BBB and other's posts about Jesus being a community organizer.

These guys really know how to turn moderates off, boastful pride and comparing Obama's resume to Jesus'.

I liked the analysis Lombardo wrote and you posted. Thanks.
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  5  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:49 pm
@nimh,
I disagree (respectfully of course). Confidence doesn't lose elections. Over-confidence does lose elections-- the difference between the two is rather you (yeah I mean you) keep donating and volunteering. As in any sport,when a confident team keeps executing because they know they can win, the confidence can be an advantage. Democrats do way too much hand-wringing, even when they are in a good position.

My point is the strategic advantages going forward.

A couple more points.

1) Obama's most powerful message is to link McCain and Bush, and he is establishing this as a theme in his campaign. This puts McCain on the defensive-- and best, it fits into the major issues from the war, to the economy. This has all the earmarks of a successful message; it is a simple negative message that people suspect. It also ties in very well with the positive messages that Obama is running on.

2) Obama has played the Palin thing quite well. The harshest attacks on Palin haven't come from the Obama campaign... in fact he constantly calls her a "skilled politician". When he has addressed her he has stayed on message saying the is "more of the same" (i.e. linking her to McCain and Bush).

The past few weeks were about Palin... first she roared into the public imagination, then the inevitable stories about Palin's weaknesses came (most not from the Obama campaign). Through the stories about the bridge to nowhere, to the Charlie Gibson interview, Obama has mainly stayed out of the way... except for giving a few gentle nudges.

3) It's the economy, stupid.This issue strongly favors Obama, and the country is only starting this discussion. As the debates become the focus combined with continued news from the finance industry, economic issues are going to be front and center in this election.

Obama supporters should be confident.

Yes we can win this thing.
H2O MAN
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:52 pm
@ebrown p,


Hope springs eternal - best of luck.

0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  2  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:57 pm
@ebrown p,
One more thing... here is the reason that I don't put much stock in the polls (and even less on the statistical analysis) at this point.

The time between the convention until the debates is best used to establish messaging and themes. Getting high poll numbers isn't that important during this time. More important is to get your framing of the issues into the public.

I will put more stock in the poll numbers starting the first week of October. At this point the first debate (the one on domestic policy) will be over(with time for the public to digest and polls to reflect and the the final frames will be established.

My confidence is based on the messages that each side brings to the table. I think that strategically, the Democrats in general, and specifically Obama, have the winning message this year.
H2O MAN
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 05:58 pm
@ebrown p,


One more thing... here are a few videos on Obama.

0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  0  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 06:00 pm
@ebrown p,
Obama
is a provincial leader with high rational views.
But still he is the same product from a rotten, dilapidated, despicable, deplorable, destestable corporate system.
But his face and behaviour is more congenial than his counterpart.
Not that i uphold Obama or decry his rival. But the world need a break from Republican's nonsense.
0 Replies
 
Thomas
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 06:07 pm
@nimh,
nimh wrote:
You dont need confident boasts, you need hardnosed realism and vigilance.

ebrown_p isn't confidently boasting. He's whistling in the dusky forrest. (I don't remember him mentioning that Obama is going to win back when it looked as if he actually was.)

Another component in ebrown_p's attitude, I suspect, is shooting the messenger. Again, I don't remember ebrown_p warning us about overreliance on polls back when Obama was way ahead.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  3  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 07:08 pm
@ebrown p,
While I'm not particularly worried about the polls, I think you are overstating the situation. The right is as energized as the left. I'm waiting for the debates. McCain has essentially lost the press, both due to his sell-out on running a clean campaign and his incessant attacks on them, but his message (what little there is to it) is still getting to his target audience.
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 07:09 pm
@ebrown p,
ebrown p wrote:
the difference between the two is rather you (yeah I mean you) keep donating and volunteering.

Me no can do. Being a furriner and all.
0 Replies
 
Ramafuchs
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Sep, 2008 07:20 pm
@engineer,
Torget audience can elect him.
"McCain has essentially lost the press"
the press can play a stenographer's job.
But the globlal people need some decency and they expect the few who use their franchaise to reflect the views of the global one and not the USA's one
0 Replies
 
Cliff Hanger
 
  2  
Reply Tue 16 Sep, 2008 07:08 am
@nimh,
I agree with nimh on this-- you're being boastful and unrealistic. Reality is, no one knows who'se winning.

Everytime I hear something from the McCain camp, which is usually a phony promise or some kind insult, it usually works in their favor, much like it did for G. Bush getting elected twice.

I think the Democrats are feeling pretty desperate at the moment, much to my chagrin.
0 Replies
 
 

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