5
   

McCain Maintains 5-Point Lead

 
 
H2O MAN
 
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 11:16 am
http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/080909DailyUpdateGraph1_h7v5a2.gif
 
gungasnake
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 11:23 am
@H2O MAN,
Polls of likely voters lately have been showing McCain leads as high as 10 points.
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:05 pm
@gungasnake,
Yep, this is much more than a bump Cool
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:18 pm
@H2O MAN,
It's a bump, as expected -- not as big as I feared, though.

Nate Silver explains:

Quote:
Did McCain Really Get the Bigger Bounce?

Obviously with a headline like that, you're probably expecting me to go all counterintuitive on you, and to some extent you'd be right.

Going into the conventions, the race was trending to Barack Obama by roughly 1 point. At the height of his convention bounce early last week, Obama had moved into a 5-6 point lead, indicating a convention bounce of 4-5 points. Now, over the past weekend, the polling appears to have transitioned into a 2-3 point McCain lead, indicating movement of 7-8 points.

But the question is where are we measuring the McCain bounce from. If you measure it from the peak of the Obama bounce, then indeed McCain has swung the polls more. If, on the other hand, you're measuring it from the pre-convention baseline, McCain's bounce is arguably slightly less -- especially since Obama's bounce was probably blunted to some extent by the Sarah Palin selection.

This is all academic, I suppose, but the point is that while the Republicans had a reasonably successful convention, the Democrats did too. Once the dust settles, I think you're going to see some movement of evangelical voters further into the McCain category, and some movement of Clinton Democrats into the Obama category. I think we can say this because even polls conducted during the peak of Obama's bounce had McCain gaining ground among evangelicals, and even polls conducted this past weekend had Obama gaining ground among Clinton Dems. Where other groups of voters will settle, however, remains to be seen.


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/did-mccain-really-get-bigger-bounce.html

And for good measure, since Rasmussen and Gallup are the main two tracking polls, Rasmussen has things all tied up at 46% each (without leaners) or 48% each (with leaners):

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:21 pm
@sozobe,
And Pollster (which includes Gallup, Rasmussen, and many others) has McCain in the lead... by .4% (4/10ths of 1 percent):

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png

0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:26 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

It's a bump, as expected -- not as big as I feared, though.


We all know Obama fears McCain and you will soon see that this is more than an expected bump.
sozobe
 
  4  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:37 pm
@H2O MAN,
I don't think so. I didn't expect Palin and of course there may well be other surprises coming. But the convention bounce has matured; Palin's still a celebrity but less so than she's been for the past week (in terms of amount of coverage); the other side of that same coin is that there will be less of a perception of siege as the coverage tapers off from fever-pitch (and I think that perception benefited her); the whole reformer thing is kind of coming apart; and I think the debates will help Obama more than McCain.

We'll see though.
Woiyo9
 
  0  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:40 pm
@sozobe,
Unless there is a scripted debate, I do not see how Obama can be effective against a seasoned vet like Sen McCain. It should be fun to see Obama stumble his way through it.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 03:03 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:


I think the debates will help Obama more than McCain.




How?
Ramafuchs
 
  0  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 03:16 pm
@H2O MAN,
he is young
Intellectual to boot with.
Can give an extempore speech.
A qualified legal luninary.
A mixed coured person.
and not the banal balabla bla bush person.
Mind you that i wish not uphold Obama but i will be happy if his counter part speeps in one of his many villa.

Throw this war monger( a banal pathetic sick person of 72 years old) out of the political spectrum.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 03:18 pm
@H2O MAN,
Well, Woiyo's reply is a start.

The conventional wisdom has become that Obama does well in scripted situations but does badly in unscripted situations. This is untrue.

But since it's the conventional wisdom, Obama merely needs to hold his own and he'll score points. I think he'll go beyond that and show a sharpness and aggressiveness that he wasn't able to show vs. Hillary. Partly that's just because of the many policy differences, partly it's because McCain isn't a woman.

But I expect Obama to score points, and possibly goad McCain into an outburst that he'll regret.
H2O MAN
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 03:58 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:



But I expect Obama to score points, and possibly goad McCain into an outburst that he'll regret.


You're saying Obama will use his well known uppity attitude to entice McCain to offer the kid an ass whupping?



I would pay money to see that "outburst", but it's not going to happen.

McCain will not fall for it... No way, No how, No Obama.
sozobe
 
  4  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 04:02 pm
@H2O MAN,
"Uppity"? Are you serious or being, like, ironic?

Irony isn't exactly your forte, is it?

Ah well. As I've said several times now, I'm looking forward to the debates.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 04:03 pm
McCain lost his temper more then once during the debates in the Republican primary. I don't see how this is much different.

It's important to remember that nobody needs to believe McCain's shtick as much as he himself does. When he got angry during earlier debates, is when he was called on his ****. Obama will do the same and McCain will be unable to effectively respond.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  3  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 04:03 pm
@sozobe,
No, he's a racist troll who likes to push people's buttons.

Cycloptichorn
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 04:05 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cyclotroll is in over his head and desperate as are most liberals that are starting to feel the heat.
0 Replies
 
H2O MAN
 
  0  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 04:06 pm
@sozobe,
sozobe wrote:

"Uppity"?


Yeah!

Look it up.
0 Replies
 
farmerman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 06:30 pm
This is what I love, were predicting a close basketball game in the first ten minutes of the game. This one will be won by
1Democrats rolling into a ball and letting opportunity like this slip away


2GOPS will be exposed as the lying sacks of **** that they are. McCain is for "change" riiiiight . Why hes gotta live with his embrace of the worst president since Harding.

Whyd they send missy home?

0 Replies
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Sep, 2008 07:04 am
Quote:
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows the race for the White House is tied once again. John McCain and Barack Obama now each attract 46% of the vote. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 48%.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

0 Replies
 
 

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