Oil Vs. Alternative Energy

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ok, so I have been seeing lots of talk about the fact that instead of drilling for new sources of oil, we should be seeking alternative sources of energy...

Like what?

Solar, wind, tidal, nuclear are all good alternative sources, but who is funding it and what time frame are we looking at? 10 years to make a dent in current energy demands? 20 years? 30 years?

People are saying that drilling for oil won't show any immediate progress either, That it would take a number of years to effect change...

So, that leaves us with 3 alternatives:

1. Wait until someone actually does find an alternative source... seems risky to me.

2. Drill for more sources now and know that change will come, even if only temporarily.

3. DO both. Start drilling while also looking for alternatives. It really doesn't need to be an either or situation. We know oil is there and we know what it can do. It's a known quantity with a known result.

Alternative sources are a great plan for the future, but the effects remain unknown and the actyual reality of it remains on the horizon.

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Re: Oil Vs. Alternative Energy

McGentrix wrote:

Solar, wind, tidal, nuclear are all good alternative sources, but who is funding it and what time frame are we looking at? 10 years to make a dent in current energy demands? 20 years? 30 years?

If the mindset to actually do it was there you could easily "make a dent" in current energy demands using solar and wind power alone in under a year.

We don't need more "programs" (i.e. rebates., tax credits, etc...) to push solar power. What we need is someone walking down the street actually telling/showing people how to do it. The average person lookiing into installing a solar system (or a small wind turbine) quickly gets overwhelmed with trying to figure out how to get all of the incentives available to them. Most of them just give up because there isn't any real way to figure out if you've found all of the possible incentives/credits. (Not to mention the technical aspects of it all...)

The reality is that a crew of 2 or 3 guys can install a complete solar system on an average house in 2 days. 5 crews could have my entire town converted in under 5 years and all of the excess electricty generated in the mean time could be sold on the open market.

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Are there companies that are producing the panels in sufficient quantity to be able to do that?

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Not currently. There isn't enough demand to justify producing that many panels right now (they'd all be stacked up in warehouses). There are companies that have enough capacity to be able to ramp up production to meet that sort of demand though. And plenty of idle factories that could be put to use in fairly short order as well.

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People are waiting for some sign from our government that they are going to do something about the price of oil. I believe the price of oil will drop as soon as something comes from Washington D.C. as I think speculators are nervous about the high price per barrel. They know it won't stay that way forever and are looking for a reason to sell while the market is high.

Should we start drilling now, perhaps build a new refinery while people like Pickens start creating large tracts of windmills and other sources of alternative energy I think the price will start to tumble back to reasonable levels.

Toyota is in progress of changing one of their truck factories over to a Prius factory. People are getting more efficient vehicles which will also lower demand for oil. The war in Iraq seems to be finally winding down and a new President is only 6 months away.

I'd like to see Washington actually do something for a change besides sit in chambers talking about what they should do.

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I think there has to be two changes in the general population attitude

1) Energy really is precious and we have to respect that. That doesn't mean you have to drive a Prius and take cold showers, but you do have to make reasonable decisions about what you drive, consume, etc. It really doesn't matter that you have the money and so to heck with everyone else.

2) We have to end this "not in my backyard" syndrone. We can drill for oil off-shore reasonably safely. We can put up wind farms even if it changes the skyline a bit. Nuclear plants are some of the best corporate neighbors you can hope for. No pollution and high paying jobs sounds good to me. Stop expecting everyone else to make the sacrifice if you can call it that.

And there needs to be a change in government attitude as well. The corporate sector is focused on yielding an IRR of 24 months or less. Corporations are not going to spend 10 years working on a program to develop alternative energy sources unless they envision a serious payback. Government needs to have a consistent, ongoing investment in technology with some of that including energy technology. The key words here are consistent and ongoing. I would like to see a percentage of the tax base, say 5%, dedicated to ongoing scientific research on issues that impact the country. This would not be related to military research.

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Engineer
You are a commie. Everyone knows that the government dosent belong in business. Look at how they screwed up the space program. All that tax money spent for no return. And all that money sent to collages for things like finding a cure for polio, and cancer that gave no monetary return. Please rethink your supposition and come to earth.

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Jamie Lee Curtis is driving a hydrogen powered car.

But only 12 places in all of LA are setup to fill the tank.

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woiyo wrote:

This is 100% false. There is no actual evidence that Bush's speech dropped oil at all. Instead, a combination of other market factors led to the drop; no serious trader has mentioned Bush's speech as a reason for the drop.

Please stop spreading this bullshit meme... or produce some causal evidence...

Cycloptichorn

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What might those "other" market conditions be?

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Please post evidence that Bush's speech DID NOT cause prices to fall.

Fact is, there's a causal relationship to anything these days. If I spill a drop of gas when filling up, the price jumps a few minutes later.

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woiyo wrote:

What might those "other" market conditions be?

Quote:

Oil Falls After Report Shows Unexpected Increase in Supplies

By Mark Shenk

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures fell more than $4 a barrel in New York after a surprise increase in U.S. inventories and as a slowing U.S. economy sapped demand for energy.

Supplies rose 2.95 million barrels to 296.9 million barrels last week, an Energy Department report showed. Stockpiles were forecast to drop 2.2 million barrels, according a Bloomberg News survey. Fuel demand averaged 20.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2 percent from 2007, the department said.

``The inventory numbers are starting to reflect the bad macro-economic news,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. ``Not only did we get a surprise build in crude-oil stocks, the products were also up nicely.''

Crude oil for August delivery fell $4.40, or 3.2 percent, to $134.34 a barrel at 11:25 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are heading for the biggest two-day drop since January 2007. Oil traded at $137.53 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:35 a.m. in Washington.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a1DJoD4gxLo8&refer=home

Yaknow, ACTUAL CHANGES in the market led to the drop. Not Bush's speech. NO oil trader or speculator mentioned Bush's speech or decision as a reason for the drop.

You guys are positing a causal relationship, but you have no evidence of one whatsoever.

Cycloptichorn

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No evidence required.

Just as there is no justification for the price of oil.

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cjhsa wrote:

No evidence required.

Just as there is no justification for the price of oil.

lol

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

cjhsa wrote:
No evidence required.

Just as there is no justification for the price of oil.

lol

Cycloptichorn

Your ignorance is once again showing when you discount Bush speech.

When the producers are in collusion and dictate the supply, normal "market" trends can not be relied upon.

For example, just last week when Iran "tested" their long range missiles, Oil futures SPIKED on this perceived risk. When Israel rattles it's sword, Oil prices spike. When the US decides to begin drilling, prices for futures will go DOWN.

To say Bush's comment had no impact, shows your ignorance.

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woiyo wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
cjhsa wrote:
No evidence required.

Just as there is no justification for the price of oil.

lol

Cycloptichorn

Your ignorance is once again showing when you discount Bush speech.

When the producers are in collusion and dictate the supply, normal "market" trends can not be relied upon.

For example, just last week when Iran "tested" their long range missiles, Oil futures SPIKED on this perceived risk. When Israel rattles it's sword, Oil prices spike. When the US decides to begin drilling, prices for futures will go DOWN.

To say Bush's comment had no impact, shows your ignorance.

These are all assertions on your part. You have no actual evidence that Bush's comments did anything.

When Iran tried out their missiles (which was fake, btw), oil traders gave that as a specific reason their prices went up: worries about stability in the middle east. After Bush gave his comments, no traders have been quoted as saying that was a reason for decline. Instead, several other factors - some of which I listed above - were given as the reason.

You guys can assert whatever you want, but it doesn't make it true! Your failure to provide any actual evidence is destroying your case. It's just wishing on your part that anyone gives a damn about Bush in any way...

I don't think you understand much about the oil market at all; you just make up whatever explanation for events you like, or in this case read a blog post by Kudlow which is repeated around the right-wing net over and over, and then decide that is reality. It is not.

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

woiyo wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
cjhsa wrote:
No evidence required.

Just as there is no justification for the price of oil.

lol

Cycloptichorn

Your ignorance is once again showing when you discount Bush speech.

When the producers are in collusion and dictate the supply, normal "market" trends can not be relied upon.

For example, just last week when Iran "tested" their long range missiles, Oil futures SPIKED on this perceived risk. When Israel rattles it's sword, Oil prices spike. When the US decides to begin drilling, prices for futures will go DOWN.

To say Bush's comment had no impact, shows your ignorance.

These are all assertions on your part. You have no actual evidence that Bush's comments did anything.

When Iran tried out their missiles (which was fake, btw), oil traders gave that as a specific reason their prices went up: worries about stability in the middle east. After Bush gave his comments, no traders have been quoted as saying that was a reason for decline. Instead, several other factors - some of which I listed above - were given as the reason.

You guys can assert whatever you want, but it doesn't make it true! Your failure to provide any actual evidence is destroying your case. It's just wishing on your part that anyone gives a damn about Bush in any way...

I don't think you understand much about the oil market at all; you just make up whatever explanation for events you like, or in this case read a blog post by Kudlow which is repeated around the right-wing net over and over, and then decide that is reality. It is not.

Cycloptichorn

I can not help you since you are deaf to any objective analysis. Stay as ignorant as you like.

"Oil prices drop by $9 a barrel

By Ken Sury | Tuesday, July 15, 2008, 11:26 AM

Oil prices plummeted today, down as much as $9.26 a barrel, as investors feared that the nation's financial woes could cut into demand, CNNMoney.com reports.

Will we see a change at the gas pump?

Light, sweet crude fell $6.35 to $138.83 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Earlier prices dipped to $135.92.

Prices began to fall after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned that high energy prices have sapped the purchasing power of U.S. households.

"It seemed to pick up steam after President Bush spoke about drilling off shore," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with Alaron Trading in Chicago."
http://www.wacotrib.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/communities/breakingnews/entries/2008/07/15/oil_prices_drop_by_9_a_barrel.html

Bush talks drill, oil prices drop
By Bob Parks Thursday, July 17, 2008

The argument was if the financial markets believed we could drill

on our land, oil prices would drop. So George Bush took the lead.

President Bush said Monday afternoon he had ordered a reversal of an executive ban on oil and natural gas drilling in offshore U.S. waters, adding it was now up to Congress to turn his decision into law. "The executive branch's restrictions have been cleared away," said Bush in a news conference, which was broadcast. "Now the ball is squarely in Congress' court."

And look what happened on Tuesday

Oil prices plummeted by the second-largest margin on record Tuesday as investors feared a further decline in U.S. demand after hearing comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Light, sweet crude fell $6.44 to settle at $138.74 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

What the CNN story didn't say was IF we can drill more oil, we'll increase supply, which will reduce "demand".

The ball is in your court, Nancy.

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/3997

Bush's comment played a PART in the lower prices. Accept it and stop acting like a stubborn child.

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I suppose pointing out that oil had already fallen more than 5 dollars a barrel by the time Bush gave his speech on the 15th at 3:30 pm ET, and actually recovered some afterwards, will mean nothing to you, as it doesn't fit your pre-packaged narrative.

The price of oil did not fall on hopes of increased domestic drilling. It fell a little due to other factors. Now, some Republicans are trying to take credit for this, and use it as proof that we should start drilling immediately, and that it will lower prices immediately if we do, even though it will take years for the supply to actually increase. There is no evidence that this position is true; it is a political position, not a fact-based one.

Cycloptichorn

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I hope they drill a big ****ing well right in the middle of Berzerkeley.

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Oil Vs. Alternative Energy

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