Craven - Need Your Prediction

I have a thesis about reality TV's role there -- the idea of more cynical, less gullible viewers -- hasn't marinated long enough yet though.



I really don't think you're correct, there. Many problems, including but not limited to:

- The problems of Hillary as a candidate -- same reasons she lost. Includes high negatives out of the gate, the concern about what President Clinton would do in the White House, nascent scandals, drama galore, etc.

- The ways in which Hillary steps on Obama's message. "Change, featuring a former two-term first lady." "A new way of doing politics, featuring the Democratic establishment." Drama galore in "no-drama Obama"'s campaign. Etc.

- Two inexperienced firsts at once. People who are inspired by the idea of electing a "first" will be inspired to do so whether it's one of them or two of them. People who are wary of that whole aspect will be less likely to bite the bullet if there are two of them rather than one of them. And for all of her vaunted "experience," Hillary is still the junior senator from New York with relatively little elected office experience. Obama + Hillary (vs. McCain + anyone) will be more vulnerable to "not ready, not experienced enough, just a feel-good ticket with no substance" than Obama + experienced old white guy. (Maybe Biden.)

- Hillary doesn't seem to be necessary to instill unity in the Dems. Happening already. (Can get polls and stuff on request.)

I think Hillary on the ticket would make Obama less likely to win, not more.

Thanks for responding to this mess of a thread, Craven.

<nodding> to Craven's further response

Although Obama may win the popular vote by 3%, his eventual victory will depend upon where he gets his 3%.

Detroit?

As I indicated, I am no fan of the paring for many reasons, the main ones you've gone over.

But if Hillary wants to, I think she can ensure that he loses. After the convention I don't think that will be possible anymore and I don't think she would actually do so (because it would require political suicide) but until the convention comes and goes this is one of two big wildcards for me.

If she's willing to commit political suicide, I think Obama should cave. If not, I think he should go with "old white guy" for veep.

Oh, I see. Yeah, I agree with that. I think she could make things way ugly but I'm optimistic she won't. Her June 3rd speech sucked but her actual concession speech was gracious and seemed to clearly indicate that she wasn't going to play spoiler. That was certainly one of the best opportunities provided for her to do so, if she was going to.

I agree it's a wildcard though. Even if she had every intention of helping Obama when she made her concession speech, she may yet change her mind.

Problem is, if she starts making trouble, I don't think that Obama choosing her as VP would make the ticket stronger, anyway. The two main problems there are a) isn't the whole premise amongst the more hardcore Hillary supporters that she isn't just better than Obama, she's WAY better? Would they necessarily be convinced to vote for Obama for prez by putting her on the ticket (BPB, for example, seems to indicate "no")? And b) if Obama capitulates and puts her on the ticket, he may gain some votes but may lose some too because it looks weak.

A pre-emptive strike -- choosing her before she starts making trouble -- is possible but dangerous, for various permutations of all the reasons I've given so far (plus a few!)

We'll see...

That's the only scenario I think it could happen. She let's him know privately that she's going to try to hold her delegates and sway enough supers at the convention and he decides that it's easier to preempt the whole thing.

Once Obama actually has the nomination wrapped up I don't think attacks by her would work well enough to make him lose. But if she tries to divide the party at the convention it's going to hurt him.

In any case, I too don't think any of this will happen but will be happy to see the convention come and go without incident.

Me too!

I may be biased because I don't watch TV and do use the internet a lot but I really think the change is coming from citizen journalism online in the form of blogs combined with the new wave of social media sites like digg, reddit, propeller that are serving as aggregation points for the now even more dispersed information sources.

Blogging and self-publishing online has been around for years, but social networking is creating new aggregations of all that social media that is changing the landscape.

Right now, some of these sites are more popular than media monsters like the New York Times to give you an idea of their scale. They are also Obama and Ron Paul strongholds and have been driving a lot of the online grassroots efforts.

Youtube makes it much, much harder for politicians to lie. There's just too much easily accessed video of them saying the opposite of what they are currently saying. It's a death-knell for McCain this cycle, and the sad part is that he doesn't even know what it is...

Cycloptichorn

Re: Craven - Need Your Prediction


now if everyone would just head this direction

Hawai'i pushes popular vote for presidential election

Oh yes, how the hell did I forget YouTube in the social media mix. It's by far the largest of all social media and is both a source and aggregation point in many ways.

Often YouTube is mixed with the community journalism sites and sites like digg were behind a lot of McCain's YouTube problems.

Agreed that YouTube is huge. Bill Clinton also didn't really get it, to his (and Hillary's) detriment.

I think reality TV has a role but it isn't necessarily a central role. It has to do with the general population's (as opposed to more plugged-in blog-reader types) sensitivity to puppet strings.

Thanks for elaborating, Craven. Good to see you as always. As you might guess; my take is a little different...

Ultimately, McCain needs to get out the bigot vote, in order to offset the wealth of new voters that will show up for Obama. His positions are every bit as much of an anchor as Obama's color, so Obama will continue to gain the legitimately earned ground all the way through November. Were Obama white; he'd be looking forward to a landslide in the 60%+ range. Thing is; the more McCain's attack dogs cater to the bigot; the more fired up the young new voters will become. If the primary season is any indication at all; turnout should be extraordinary… which will favor Obama regardless of who he runs with. McCain simply isn't going to inspire a lot of new voters.

I would agree with Craven that Hillary could put a major dent in his polling at the convention (but with considerably less permanent damage); though I don't believe the Hill-people are loyal enough to her, in great enough numbers, to sway the election McCain's way. I believe the months between the convention and the election would be ample for him to recover. I further believe the Hill-people numbers would shrink fast if she chose to come back to deliberately harm the party. The quitting in between thing has given ample opportunity for most to realize she was beaten fair and square. Again, I think the new voters would bulge sufficiently to erase whatever damage she succeeded in inflicting through the I'll-happily-cut-off-my-nose-to-spite-my-face crowd.

The true Pro-Hillary Democrats will be behind Barack Obama, with or without her on the ticket. The Anti-Obama Democrats (mostly closet bigots, imo) aren't really all that likely to care if she's added to the ticket. Independents like JPB and myself; are far more likely to move to McCain if Hillary is added. Bottom line: I think Soz had it right the first time around. Hillary on the ticket is a net loss. Since most of her following are the most adamant of the anti-bush people; most will come to their senses and vote against the man who will by then be known as McSame. It is the Independents that pushed Obama past Hillary in the primaries; and we are WAY more likely to shift to McCain than the hard-core Hill-people.

Prediction wise; I'm going with a 6 point margin for Obama.

Again, I think residual, deniable racism is the only thing keeping Obama from a landslide. No, that's not quite right. I have to give McCain his due: The other Republican contenders this cycle would have lost in a landslide even to a black man. Even I was kicking the tires on Hillary when the Republicans were looking at Romney.

so mccain people are all bigots? It's amazing how, in this campaign where the game is to be raised and bigotry is to be eliminated... the mega sensitivity to any negative remark becomes a sign of exactly that. Or racism... or ignorance.

The nation is easily as polarized as it had been in the bush years granted around different issues........ and no one's even been elected yet. This gets more entertaining every day.

Um, did you actually read what Bill wrote? B/c he didn't write what you seem to be suggesting he did.

Cycloptichorn

O'Bill......

Ultimately, McCain needs to get out the bigot vote, in order to offset the wealth of new voters that will show up for Obama.


That's a damn clear line of demarcation.... yeah, I read it.

This...



does not equal this...



at all.

Proving once again that reading and comprehending have different meanings.

I'd say McCain voters are mostly, simply, Republicans. He needs to "get out the bigot vote"; because I imagine this is a deep well, populated by the kind of ignorant fool who collectively doesn't vote all that regularly. Hence; they can boost his numbers considerably.