OCCOM BILL wrote:Interesting choice of words, that...
Care to elaborate?
I think there are two big variables. What Hillary's supporters are going to do, and whether there will be a "swift boating" that sticks to Obama.
We'll know most of what we need to know on the first question at the Dem convention but won't know enough about the latter until late October.
I think that Hillary's supporters aren't going to be problematic enough to tip the odds in McCain's favor, and I think that swift boating will be more difficult this time around both because the internet has elevated the intellectual level of the political debate (with much more parsing, information, and analysis by voters) with record numbers getting their political information primarily from the internet and thusly reading more and relying on the TV sound byte a little less and because 9/11 is further away and there is less irrational paranoia to capitalize on with a national security Republican platform.
I think the biggest dark horse is really whether some character assault on Obama (that he's a wuss, that he's too "slick" and untrustworthy) will stick but I don't expect it to work too well and I think Obama will win, barring such factors breaking very differently.
Now as to the popular vote part of it, I've put a lot of thought into whether the popular vote could be won by Obama while not winning the election and though I think his stronghold demographics lend themselves well to that kind of scenario (especially if record numbers of blacks vote in Dem strongholds) with his urban support and suburban demographic difficulties but I think this scenario is extremely unlikely.
I see the popular vote being Obama's and think he will be the next president. I am concerned that the electoral vote will be tight if Obama doesn't improve his ability to connect with... well "hicks" for lack of a better word, but really don't think we'll be seeing
that scenario, where the Dems win the popular vote and lose the election again this quickly.
Note: While I understand anyone's reluctance to consider it and am no fan of it myself, Hillary as a running mate would erase what doubt I have about Obama's victory.
