Cycloptichorn wrote:fishin wrote:
Errr... "
Webb and others say hogwash, if a guy or a gal spends three years - and we all know that amounts to at least one, or two years in the warzone today..."
Do we all know that? It isn't possible. In 2007 the military brought in 320,000 new recruits. There are what, 150,000 or so troops deployed in Iraq and Afganistan? The math doesn't quite work there unless we are to assume that there aren't any career personnel that serve in the warzone (which is patently false.)
There are 155 thousand in Iraq and 28 thousand in Afghanistan. This doesn't count naval deployments to the surrounding region. Troop levels are due to be drawn down to about 140 or so in Iraq and beefed up by 5k or so in Afghanistan.
It seems likely that, with troop and unit rotations, nearly every military recruit ends up spending some time in a war zone, and many do several tours...
Cycloptichorn
It only seems likely if you ignore basic math.
320,000 new recruits/year minus ~185,000 people deployed in Iraq and Afganistan leaves ~135,000 recruits sitting outside the warzone. Even throwing in the Naval forces sitting in the Gulf doesn't get you close.
And even those numbers would require that every military person in Iraq and Afganistan be 1st termers - and that isn't the case by a long shot. At best 1st term personnel make up somewhere between 30 and 40% of the forces. The remaining 60-70% are career military.
If 1st termers made up 40% (the high end) of those deployed then you are looking at ~74,000 1st termers in a warzone in any given year. I'll even throw in an extra 10,000 Navy 1st termers to make it 84,000.
If you bring in 320,000 people and deployed 84,000/year that gives you just short of 4 years (3.8) worth of 1st termers. While they were in the process of deploying you'd be bringing in another 960,000 of them in the subsequent years that would never deploy at all.
(My calculations are based on 1-year rotations which the original comment mentioned - some rotations are shorter and some are longer but it probably does average out to roughly 1-year rotations overall.)