farmerman wrote:Okie, My company was one of those that did recoverability research in the 1980's when the Green River reserves were only thought to be about 1.2 Trillion barrels.(with a 70% recoverability). The shales have , since been increased in their reserve estimates due to deeper drilling .
Right now, the impediment is primarily environmental and the fact that oil companies are not in any hurry to once again lower the costs for petroleum and have them lose profits. WHen oil prices are maintained high , and the demand met, why screw with that?
The oil shale information centers data sheets start with
THIS
Thanks, and my apologies for characterizing your post as uninformed, you are obviously very informed on this, but I still think unfair in terms of saying the oil companies are holding the oil shale for later simply to drive the price of oil up now. I also worked for a company that had oil shale holdings, and personally knew the engineers and people working on this back in the 70's and early 80's. How many booms have we observed with oil shale now? There is a reason this has not caught fire yet. It is called "economics." The technical problems and the associated costs have simply made it unadviseable to go ahead with this, as the cost of production has not yet competed with conventional oil. Maybe at the price it is now, but what if the price drops below $100, then oil shale is marginal at best, and by the time the projects get off the ground, the price causes shut down of the project, which is what has happened over and over again. See the following article.
http://www.vaildaily.com/article/20071103/NEWS/71102022
As conventional oil reserves tighten and become costlier to produce because of where they are being produced from, oil shale will eventually become viable. And by then, perhaps the technology of extraction can be further improved and economized.
Oil companies do not like to lose money on producing oil, and that is the primary reason so far that they have not dived headlong into producing oil shale. This could change and probably is changing as we speak, that is the ability to make money on oil shale, but it will be a gradual build up of the industry, or a phase in period, as economics allow.
Also, I think the 70% recovery is too high to hope for, as you point out in regard to in-situ, which is the likely route of production. If you mine the shallowest and richest oil shale, it could be a higher recovery, but mining carries with it a whole set of problems by itself.
Last point, environmentalists in conjunction with Democrats will oppose the production of oil shale. They won't even allow us to drill in Alaska, which is a piece of cake in terms of land needed and a few oil wells poked into the ground, with minimal impacts. That is a huge resource being ignored at this very moment. In comparison, building oil shale recovery areas is far more intrusive and complicated, so I personally thinks it makes alot more sense to first produce conventional oil in Alaska, and in offshore areas that have been so far off limits. Oil production is not at all incompatible with the environment. This, I think is a myth perpetrated onto us by the tree huggers.
It is nice to have this huge ace in our hand to be able to play when appropriate and economic, and isn't it nice that one of the largest oil shale resources in the world are right here in this country.