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Handicapping The Pulitzers
Handicapping The Pulitzers: Walter Reed? Virginia Tech? China? And Likely Some Surprises
By Joe Strupp, E & P
Published: February 26, 2008

As Pulitzer Prize jurors prepare to gather next week in New York to sift through hundreds of submissions and find three finalists in each of the 14 journalism categories to nominate for the full board to consider in a month, speculation is mounting over which entries have the best chance.

On March 3, 4, and 5, the juries will peruse entries from the largest major dailies to small town community papers, with both print and Web elements in the running.

Some news events, such as the Virginia Tech massacre and the Minnesota bridge collapse, give a clear breaking news advantage to papers near those stories. A handful of investigative and in-depth projects, including several China-related probes, are also top contenders, based on interviews with a few jurors and a look at the other major awards already announced.

"Anyone could have predicted Katrina would be big [two years ago], and Virginia Tech will come up," says Cate Barron, managing editor of the Patriot-News in Harrisburg, Pa., who will serve her second stint as a juror next week. "But I come in with an open mind and I think everyone comes in without outside influence."

Kate Marymont, executive editor of The News-Press in Fort Myers, Fla., who served on the 2007 local reporting jury, says this year's crop has more outright contenders. "Last year was a more level playing field entering into it, not a lot of obvious standouts," she contends. Marymont adds that some clear favorites emerge this year: "The Walter Reed work, the bridge collapse are in that small circle."

Trying to handicap the awards, which are affected by a range of things -- from societal impact of a story or series to the quality of writing -- is something of a crapshoot. The increased use of online elements in the submissions has also changed the way the awards are handled, and entries reviewed.

"I think we can all identify the [favored] stories, but until you see the coverage, you don't know," says Ken Paulson, USA Today editor and a juror during the past two years. "I've always felt that the judges come in with an absolute open mind."

With all of that to consider, E&P attempts again to identify the cream of the newspaper crop.

A review of some of the preliminary awards, which often foretell Pulitzer success, as well as interviews with editors and current and former jurors, indicates some frontrunners have emerged.

-- Among the non-breaking news categories, two Washington Post submissions are clear favorites, both for their impact and award-winning track record thus far.

The Post's Dana Priest, already a Pulitzer winner two years ago for her revelations of secret prisons overseas, teamed with Anne Hull for the bombshell Walter Reed Army Medical Center expose that revealed widespread care and management problems at the military health care facility.

Priest and Hull sparked numerous inquiries and the eventual departure of a number of high-ranking Army officials, including Army Secretary Francis J. Harvey.

On Monday, the pair won the Selden Ring Prize for Investigative Reporting from the USC Annenberg School of Communications. The duo has also taken a finalist spot for the Shorenstein Center Goldsmith Prize for investigative reporting and won an American Society of Newspaper Editors (ASNE) distinguished writing award.

Priest and Hull have to be the frontrunners for either a public service, national reporting or investigative nod. "Everyone you talk to will mention Walter Reed," Paulson said.

-- Another Post notable is the in-depth series on Vice President Dick Cheney by Barton D. Gellman and Jo Becker, which won a George Polk Award and a Goldsmith Prize finalist notice.

-- Several New York Times projects have received nods and are likely contenders in the national, investigative or explanatory categories. Walt Bogdanich and Jake Hooker are Goldsmith Prize and Selden Ring finalists for "A Toxic Pipeline," their report on diethylene glycol, a toxin imported from China for use in anti-freeze that is found to be suspected of killing hundreds around the Globe.

David Gonzalez, meanwhile, took home an ASNE award for a three-part series on Pentecostalism, while fellow Times scribe Charles A. Duhigg garnered a recent Polk Award for an in-depth look at unethical practices by nursing homes and related institutions.

-- Also re:China was Shai Oster of The Wall Street Journal's reporting on China's Three Gorges Dam construction, a Polk award winner that could see success as a Pulitzer foreign news winner, explanatory contender or investigative honoree. Oster looked at the impact of the project on local environmental issues.

-- Another China angle came from the Chicago Tribune, with its revelations about injuries and death resulting from unregulated products imported from China, ranging from dangerous cribs to lead-tainted toys. That series already has won a Polk Award and gotten Selden Ring finalist consideration, as well as sparking a nationwide review of the problem.

-- In a related story, the Salt Lake Tribune has been given a Shorenstein finalist spot for its coverage of the dangers in Chinese factories of carcinogens used in making many of the recalled products.

-- Several other investigative projects that could be found as Pulitzer contenders in a number of categories include: The Palm Beach Post, a Shorenstein finalist for its investigation into a Palm Beach County corruption scandal; Jerry Mitchell of The Clarion-Ledger in Jackson, Miss., for revealing poor reporting of disease outbreaks and infant mortality by Mississippi state officials; and the Charlotte (N.C.) Observer's expose of local housing foreclosure problems.

Mitchell, a Pulitzer finalist in 2006, and the Observer's staff, have both already won Polk Awards for their work on these subjects.

-- Few major Iraq-related stories or series are jumping to the head of the Pulitzer lists, although McClatchy Newspapers long-respected Baghdad bureau got recognition with a Polk Award for Leila Fadel, McClatchy's latest in a string of worthy Baghdad bureau chiefs.

-- The classic breaking news award story could be the Virginia Tech massacre, last April's deadly shooting that left 33 people dead on the college campus. The local Roanoke (Va.) Times brought attention for its blog-type initial approach and, later, emphasis on emotional and local impact. The Washington Post and Richmond (Va.) Times-Dispatch also covered the incident and its aftermath heavily, with the Post utilizing numerous inside sources.

The Virginia Tech paper, the Collegiate Times, meanwhile, has been noted as being Pulitzer-worthy for its expanded coverage, both online and print, which broke several stories, including first lists of the dead and other inside details. The paper also succeeded in giving campus faculty and students deep daily information on everything from grief counseling to scheduling updates.

-- Another breaking news contender is the August bridge collapse in Minnesota's Twin Cities. Both The Star Tribune of Minneapolis and the St. Paul Pioneer Press drew accolades for going all out on the story, with Web coverage and follow-ups in print and online. Both papers, as well as numerous national outlets, also focused on the lengthy list of bridges and structures nationwide later found to have been deemed unsafe or deficient.

-- A dark horse breaking news contender might be The Post & Courier in Charleston, S.C., which recently won the ASNE prize for deadline reporting on the June sofa store fire that killed nine firefighters. The Omaha (Neb.) World-Herald, meanwhile, won a finalist award from ASNE for its coverage of the December mall shooting that resulted in eight deaths.

-- Several southern California papers may receive attention for the most recent wildfires there, particularly near San Diego. The top local dailies utilized web options to keep readers up to date and to post some riveting photos that are likely to be up for the two Pulitzer photo categories.

CARTOONING: Look for Mike Thompson of the Detroit Free Press and Copley News Service to have an excellent chance. He was a finalist the past two years and as E&P recently noted in a print story, he began doing breaking-news animations in 2007.

Also of note in the cartoon category is John Sherffius of The Boulder (Col.) Camera, who won the $10,000 Herblock Prize last week. He's one of the most visually striking cartoonists out there and often conveys his points in memorably symbolic ways without using too many words. Then there is Ann Telnaes of Cartoonists & Writers Syndicate, who won a Pulitzer in 2001, but has one of the most interesting drawing styles of any cartoonist. She is also doing Web animation, which Pulitzer judges have shown makes a difference.

COMMENTARY: This category, which has always remained wide open, has a few slight favorites. Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post, who has written a syndicated column for only a few years, has emerged as a contender due to his in-depth reporting and clear style.

Leonard Pitts Jr. of The Miami Herald and Tribune Media Services and Connie Schultz of The Plain Dealer in Cleveland and Creators Syndicate, both won recently, in 2004 and 2005, respectively. But each has gotten accolades for 2007 work, with Pitts winning the ASNE commentary prize and Schultz taking a finalist award in that competition.

Paul Krugman of The New York Times also had a much-noted 2007 and could symbolize the kind of anti-Bush liberal view many columnists have waged. Joe Nocera, a Times business columnist, was a finalist last year and continues to gain support as financial-related news expands.