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The Classic Example of Barstool Economics

 
 
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 08:27 am
woiyo - I know very well how the estate tax works, but I did not know its history. Thanks for the link! Very Happy
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 08:28 am
dyslexia wrote:
DrewDad wrote:
Zeno was an idiot, but I take your point.
My response was just exactly that the logic of Zeno was idiotic and yet is constantly redressed and sold as reason. (Perhaps we can put the blame on Plato and Aristotle, I know I do)
Zeno's arguments are perhaps the first examples of a method of proof called reductio ad absurdum, also known as proof by contradiction. They are also credited as a source of the dialectic method used by Socrates.

I missed your point, then.... I thought you were referring to "plurality vs. unity" and saying that everything depends on everything else.....
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 08:44 am
Phoenix32890 wrote:
woiyo - I know very well how the estate tax works, but I did not know its history. Thanks for the link! Very Happy


Good, then tell us what is the exemption for next year? If that exemption enough or should it be different?
0 Replies
 
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 08:55 am
woiyo-Two million this year, 3.5 in 2009, repealed in 2010. If the repeal is not permanent, it goes back to 1 million in 2011.

I feel very sorry for rich older folks who are ill in 2010. Think that they will make it 'til Jan. 1, 2011?

Personally, I would want it all repealed. As a second choice, I think that 5 million would not be unreasonable. There are many middle class people who have acquired a few million dollars over their lifetime. A million bucks is not what it used to be!
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 09:26 am
Re: The Classic Example of Barstool Economics
Phoenix32890 wrote:
Saw this in the paper yesterday. Simplistic, of course. But like all good parables, it illustrates an important point.


Quote:

Suppose that every day, 10 men go out for beer and the bill for all 10 comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.

The fifth would pay $1.

The sixth would pay $3.

The seventh would pay $7.

The eighth would pay $12.

The ninth would pay $18.

The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do.

The 10 men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.

"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20."

Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share?"

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100 percent savings).

The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33 percent savings).

The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28 percent savings).

The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25 percent savings).

The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22 percent savings).

The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16 percent savings).

Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

"I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, "but he got $10!"

"'Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man. "I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got 10 times more than I!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man. "Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison. "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, ladies and gentlemen, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.

For those who understand, no explanation is needed. For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible.




Link


It's a very poor comparison for several reasons Pheonix.
1. Taxes are not collected by an owner.
2. The schedule laid out for beer purchases doesn't come close to relating to the tax system in the US. Even after the Bush tax cuts the bottom 20% pay 1% of the total Federal taxes. The bottom 40% pay 6% of the taxes. Your example has the top 20% paying 77% of the taxes which they do not.
3. A reduction in taxes doesn't reduce the cost of the services being provided. If we run a deficit. That deficit will still have to be paid unlike a reduction in prices at a bar.
4. Unlike your bar scenario, the people in this country get a benefit other than just drinking from paying their taxes. The poor buy goods and services provided by the rich so the rich get money from the poor not included in this simplistic analogy. Perhaps your scenario should have included a $5 cover charge that 100 people pay to get in the bar that the top 2 guys split 80/20. Suddenly it seems they aren't getting screwed if we just make that single adjustment.
5. The way that reductions are figured in taxes are not based on this simple process.
6. The rich have not been beaten up by the poor (yet.)
7. The rich can't "not show up" in the country just because they don't like the tax system.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 09:44 am
Phoenix32890 wrote:
woiyo-Two million this year, 3.5 in 2009, repealed in 2010. If the repeal is not permanent, it goes back to 1 million in 2011.

I feel very sorry for rich older folks who are ill in 2010. Think that they will make it 'til Jan. 1, 2011?

Personally, I would want it all repealed. As a second choice, I think that 5 million would not be unreasonable. There are many middle class people who have acquired a few million dollars over their lifetime. A million bucks is not what it used to be!

According to the Wealth Report of 2007 there are only 3.2 million households with a net worth of a million or more. That is less than 1% of the US. I wouldn't consider 1% to be "many" in any scenario.

Plus you have to remember that the $1million estate tax is the exemption. Someone with $1,000,001 in estate would owe exactly 50 cents on a 50% estate tax. Someone with $2 million in their estate would owe $500,000 with a 50% estate tax or only 25% of their estate.

The tax isn't nearly as onerous on the middle class as you want to make it out to be.
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:12 am
Phoenix32890 wrote:
woiyo-Two million this year, 3.5 in 2009, repealed in 2010. If the repeal is not permanent, it goes back to 1 million in 2011.

I feel very sorry for rich older folks who are ill in 2010. Think that they will make it 'til Jan. 1, 2011?

Personally, I would want it all repealed. As a second choice, I think that 5 million would not be unreasonable. There are many middle class people who have acquired a few million dollars over their lifetime. A million bucks is not what it used to be!


Many do not realize the in 2010 or in a FULL REPEAL, there will still be a "settlement cost" and every politician will never tell you what it is. I will.

1) For Federal Purposes, the "system" changes in 2010 or under full repeal, to a CARRY OVER BASIS system with 1M as the exemption. So it is the HEIRS who will pay the tax , not the Decedents Estate.

2) Many States have already increased their ESTATE TAX EXEMPTION in anticipation of higher federal exemptions, lower federal rates and / or repeal.

Even under a "FULL REPEAL" as advertised by those liars in Washington who are "against the dreaded death tax", be assured that the rates would still be about 35%.
0 Replies
 
DrewDad
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:18 am
woiyo wrote:
1) For Federal Purposes, the "system" changes in 2010 or under full repeal, to a CARRY OVER BASIS system with 1M as the exemption. So it is the HEIRS who will pay the tax , not the Decedents Estate.

Yup. With the attendant record keeping, paper work, and tax audits....
0 Replies
 
ebrown p
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:21 am
Ebrown wonders how much Phoenix thinks Paris Hilton should pay for a beer.
0 Replies
 
woiyo
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:29 am
DrewDad wrote:
woiyo wrote:
1) For Federal Purposes, the "system" changes in 2010 or under full repeal, to a CARRY OVER BASIS system with 1M as the exemption. So it is the HEIRS who will pay the tax , not the Decedents Estate.

Yup. With the attendant record keeping, paper work, and tax audits....


You mean you have not kept track of the basis of your multi million dollar home? :wink:
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:36 am
BBB
Actually, our tax system is designed along the French model described by marie antoinette's "Let them eat cake." Toss just enough crumbs to the non-rich to keep them quiet so they will leave the rich alone. Didn't turn out too good for the aristocrats and they lost their heads.

Be warned!

BBB
0 Replies
 
Phoenix32890
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:49 am
BBB- But the poor do not pay a lot of taxes, some nothing at all. The rich do pay the majority of taxes.

The difference between the aristocrats in France, and the rich in America, is that here we have no "caste" system. A person living in the US is not locked into the conditions to which he was born. A poor bright kid, with a good idea, can still make a fortune. Ask the folks from Google, for instance.
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 10:56 am
Phoenix32890 wrote:
BBB- But the poor do not pay a lot of taxes, some nothing at all. The rich do pay the majority of taxes.

The difference between the aristocrats in France, and the rich in America, is that here we have no "caste" system. A person living in the US is not locked into the conditions to which he was born. A poor bright kid, with a good idea, can still make a fortune. Ask the folks from Google, for instance.


We are losing our lack of "caste" system. The attack on the labor movement is creating a caste system. The middle class was created largely by the success of the labor movement until Ronald Reagan came on the scene.

BBB
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 01:44 pm
Re: The Classic Example of Barstool Economics
parados wrote:
Phoenix32890 wrote:
Saw this in the paper yesterday. Simplistic, of course. But like all good parables, it illustrates an important point.
Quote:

Suppose that every day, 10 men go out for beer and the bill for all 10 comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
...


It's a very poor comparison for several reasons Pheonix.
1. Taxes are not collected by an owner.
2. The schedule laid out for beer purchases doesn't come close to relating to the tax system in the US. Even after the Bush tax cuts the bottom 20% pay 1% of the total Federal taxes. The bottom 40% pay 6% of the taxes. Your example has the top 20% paying 77% of the taxes which they do not.
3. A reduction in taxes doesn't reduce the cost of the services being provided. If we run a deficit. That deficit will still have to be paid unlike a reduction in prices at a bar.
4. Unlike your bar scenario, the people in this country get a benefit other than just drinking from paying their taxes. The poor buy goods and services provided by the rich so the rich get money from the poor not included in this simplistic analogy. Perhaps your scenario should have included a $5 cover charge that 100 people pay to get in the bar that the top 2 guys split 80/20. Suddenly it seems they aren't getting screwed if we just make that single adjustment.
5. The way that reductions are figured in taxes are not based on this simple process.
6. The rich have not been beaten up by the poor (yet.)
7. The rich can't "not show up" in the country just because they don't like the tax system.

I think this is a poor analogy for a different reason. When the 10 men go into the bar:

The first only gets to smell the beer.
The second gets a small taste. The third and fourth get slightly bigger sips
The fifth gets several swallows while the sixth gets a cup full.
The seventh gets a cup+, while the eighth gets a pint.
The ninth gets two pints.
The tenth gets a keg.

While I haven't worked out the exact percentages, this is a lot more accurate than saying that the bar gives each the same. We know that is not true. The initial premise is in error.
0 Replies
 
OGIONIK
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 01:59 pm
the 10th man outsourced the jobs of the 4 poor men, good game you got owned.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 02:06 pm
OGIONIK wrote:
the 10th man outsourced the jobs of the 4 poor men, good game you got owned.

And then offered to buy them a beer.
0 Replies
 
BumbleBeeBoogie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 19 Feb, 2008 02:08 pm
BBB
And no one noticed that the scumbag bartender watered down the beer, cheating all of them.

BBB
0 Replies
 
 

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