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What is the Optimum Tax Rate?

 
 
kuvasz
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 10:47 am
if the impetus for tax rebates is to kick-start the economy then the best solution for rebates is to send the money to people who have to spend it to stay alive. there is no reason to rebate a millionaire a single dollar if he is going to bank it or stuff it under his pillow. that doesn't cause the money to circulate in the economy and it sure as hell won't prevent a recession.

however, the rebates passed in congress do just the latter. surprize!
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 11:02 am
hanno wrote:
6% on each and all transactions. Split evenly betwixt county state and fed. Should cover defense, state militia, public works, international interests, criminal law, common law, business law, research grants etc. If it doesn't we're doing something wrong to begin with, so why fuel the fire?

In a $13 trillion economy 6% ($780billion) wouldn't cover military spending($571million)and interest on the debt ($239billion).



If you want an insight into the US budget, then check out the historical tables which are part of every budget. It's a large PDF but full of information.

http://origin.www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget/fy08/pdf/hist.pdf
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 11:47 am
Govt deficit spending does more to spur the economy than lower tax rates.

I think the key to deficit spending is to do it so you actually have something to show for it. Infrastructure is the most obvious choice since it has a return over the years. Giving people money to spend is a one time shot. As soon as they spend the money you are left with only residual effects.
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engineer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 12:25 pm
And if they spend it on imported goods, the impact to the US is minimum while the debt is still there. But you can't deficit spend forever, can you? It has to be paid back eventually or the currency has to devalue. I agree that infrastructure has the best payback. Soft infrastructure like higher education would also work. Reviving the GI bill would be a plus.
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Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 02:07 pm
Republicans contend that deficit spending (supply-side economics) will spur the economy so much that government revenue will increase, and the deficits will be eliminated. They even contend that the debt will be decreased. This has proven to be totally false since Reagan installed supply side.

It is really criminal that no one is concerned about the effect of the debt on our children and grandchildren. The debt has more than doubled during the last seven years of Bush.

We should be scared that the dollar, which is fiat money, will plummet drastically.
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cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 02:10 pm
kuvasz wrote:
if the impetus for tax rebates is to kick-start the economy then the best solution for rebates is to send the money to people who have to spend it to stay alive. there is no reason to rebate a millionaire a single dollar if he is going to bank it or stuff it under his pillow. that doesn't cause the money to circulate in the economy and it sure as hell won't prevent a recession.

however, the rebates passed in congress do just the latter. surprize!


Yep, nothing stimulates the economy like booze, tobacco, and Flamin' Hot Cheetos sales.
0 Replies
 
hanno
 
  1  
Reply Wed 30 Jan, 2008 09:48 pm
cjhsa wrote:
hanno wrote:
6% on each and all transactions. Split evenly betwixt county state and fed. Should cover defense, state militia, public works, international interests, criminal law, common law, business law, research grants etc. If it doesn't we're doing something wrong to begin with, so why fuel the fire?


Michigan has a 6% sales tax and the state is broke. There are few transactions that aren't subjected to the tax. Are you suggesting that food be taxed? That is a tough row to hoe.


What's tough about it? You work a week, get the check, spend it on food and whether the food's taxed or not the G has already got 20% of it. If you don't pay income tax then you must be the working poor or unemployed, either you don't want a good job or it's not profitable to employ you, which, since this was once the land of opportunity would invariably be due to government restrictions. Accordingly, Michigan is broke because they don't make cars anymore, which in turn is because the EPA is a terrorist organization.

The problem with taxation the way we do it is that for any given flow of cash it hits or misses. Tax breaks get handed out if you whine, or declare bankruptcy, move your business somewhere, or are a corrupt politico. Or you work or hit the lotto or inherit and you get nicked hard. Regardless of what public works we get from it it has the effect of depressing the economy. The only buck they don't give or take a piece of is the one you don't earn or spend.

I say 6% off the top of all cash flow because it would be maybe a quarter of what we pay now when everything's going right, and if you count two hits on every buck of the GDP it should make half of the 3-trillion we need to run the joint. Give me a modest increase in economic activity, equal only to consumer level savings, and a more purpose-built government and we're off to the races. Take 13% and you can run better social works than Canada's got off the existing GDP and we'd still have more cash in our pockets, but I think that's well past the point of diminishing returns by percent.
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 07:45 am
Hanno's coming in high with spikes flying! Laughing
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parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 08:55 am
Quote:
I say 6% off the top of all cash flow because it would be maybe a quarter of what we pay now when everything's going right, and if you count two hits on every buck of the GDP it should make half of the 3-trillion we need to run the joint.

If you count 2 hits on every buck for the GDP then you have doubled the GDP.

Quote:
The GDP of a country is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services produced.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_Domestic_Product

You can't just pretend that the GDP is doubled. You can't just pretend that the GDP doesn't count all the goods and services. The problem with taxation is it depends on reality.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 08:59 am
hanno wrote:
I say 6% off the top of all cash flow because it would be maybe a quarter of what we pay now when everything's going right, and if you count two hits on every buck of the GDP it should make half of the 3-trillion we need to run the joint. Give me a modest increase in economic activity, equal only to consumer level savings, and a more purpose-built government and we're off to the races. Take 13% and you can run better social works than Canada's got off the existing GDP and we'd still have more cash in our pockets, but I think that's well past the point of diminishing returns by percent.

That might cover federal spending, but most infrastructure spending occurs at a state level. You have to add more sales tax in for state and local spending. Now you are up to 20+%. You also have to watch out for a wopper black trade market. Just like people try to keep income off the books today, people would try to sell outside of the system when the sales tax is that high. Not that it isn't workable, but I think a consumer based tax faces some of the same issues that income taxes have.

But even with that system, what is the optimum rate? With another percent in consumption taxes, maybe you could build a better rail system spurring more economic growth. Perhaps another GI Bill. The WWII GI bill paid for itself almost 100 times over in economic growth by some estimates. Taking just the minimum to support basic government services probably isn't the optimum amount for economic performance.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 10:28 am
engineer, to clarify something, are you talking about income tax only, income tax plus social security and medicare, or all taxes as a percent of gdp? I do think your thread directly relates to the Laffer curve, which I have debated extensively here on various threads, but I think that needs to be considered in light of all taxation, then the decisions have to be made as to what form of taxation is the most efficient, or where in the stream of the economy do we collect the taxes, and is it more efficiently done by local and state entities to provide the services we want in return for paying taxes.
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 11:00 am
okie wrote:
engineer, to clarify something, are you talking about income tax only, income tax plus social security and medicare, or all taxes as a percent of gdp? I do think your thread directly relates to the Laffer curve, which I have debated extensively here on various threads, but I think that needs to be considered in light of all taxation, then the decisions have to be made as to what form of taxation is the most efficient, or where in the stream of the economy do we collect the taxes, and is it more efficiently done by local and state entities to provide the services we want in return for paying taxes.

I agree, I think the key number is all taxes. I think government spending is more or less as efficient in stimulating the economy as consumer spending providing it is local, so I don't buy the argument that tax rebates are necessarily beneficial. But pork government spending is only minimally beneficial and I'd rather have less taxes than pork. I'll look up some of your Laffer curve posts. But the other question I have is "how do you know where you are on the curve?" The economy is so complex and the tax structure so opaque between the various taxing authorities that I don't think you can calculate the optimum rate on a spreadsheet. But you should be able to measure outcomes to judge where you are on the curve. For example, if the capital markets are constrained by a lack of cash, you probably have too high a tax rate. If basic infrastructure is failing to keep up with what is necessary to promote the economy, your rate is probably too low. What other variables would you look at?
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 03:06 pm
engineer wrote:
okie wrote:
engineer, to clarify something, are you talking about income tax only, income tax plus social security and medicare, or all taxes as a percent of gdp? I do think your thread directly relates to the Laffer curve, which I have debated extensively here on various threads, but I think that needs to be considered in light of all taxation, then the decisions have to be made as to what form of taxation is the most efficient, or where in the stream of the economy do we collect the taxes, and is it more efficiently done by local and state entities to provide the services we want in return for paying taxes.

I agree, I think the key number is all taxes.

Its tough to identify the numbers that we need to look at this. It seems we are taxed in this country at around 28% of gdp according to one site, but does this include ss and medicare, state and local sales tax, etc.?
Quote:
I think government spending is more or less as efficient in stimulating the economy as consumer spending providing it is local, so I don't buy the argument that tax rebates are necessarily beneficial.
tax rebates stimulate a burst of spending, but probably not capital investment in business, which is what we need longer term.
Quote:
But pork government spending is only minimally beneficial and I'd rather have less taxes than pork.
Government is the least efficient player in an economy in terms of producing wealth per money spent.
Quote:
I'll look up some of your Laffer curve posts. But the other question I have is "how do you know where you are on the curve?" The economy is so complex and the tax structure so opaque between the various taxing authorities that I don't think you can calculate the optimum rate on a spreadsheet. But you should be able to measure outcomes to judge where you are on the curve. For example, if the capital markets are constrained by a lack of cash, you probably have too high a tax rate. If basic infrastructure is failing to keep up with what is necessary to promote the economy, your rate is probably too low. What other variables would you look at?

I agree with that. I don't think we know exactly where the optimum point is for tax revenues, and by the way the Laffer curve concept may tell us there is an optimum point of taxing that generates the optimum tax revenue, but this still may not equal the most efficient economy, as obviously the least taxed economy is more productive.

And I think the point of the peak of the Laffer curve probably changes from time to time, depending upon other circumstances. The main thing I have argued here about the Laffer curve would be the fact that if we could just get everyone to agree that it exists, which seems intuitively obvious based on a few very simple economic and mathematical principles, then the politicians could actually become more able to deal intelligently with economic policy. Instead of arguing about the existence of the effect, we could then argue over where we are on the curve, thus helping us to generate a more nonpartisan and reasonable policy economic and tax policy, sufficient to run the government services people should get according to the constitution.

Economics is driven by mathematical principles linked with the proven tendencies of human beings, which should not have to be distorted by politicians of different political beliefs. Politicians don't argue over whether mathematical principles work, so why are they so naive as to argue over economic principles? We could debate the reasons, but unfortunately they do argue over them.

Your point of capital markets vs infrastructure is a good one.

An important point I think needs addressing is the desperate need to reform our tax systemt to enable us to better compete in the world market. We are losing businesses to offshore locations, and taxes are one area that could improve that situation if we did it right.

One last thought, I am a big believer in the fact that taxes spent and administered for services as close to the people as possible is the most efficient. This is a conservative principle, a Reagan principle, an Eisenhower principle, it goes way back. Therefore such things as sending money to Washington to improve local schools makes absolutely no sense to me, and is a total waste of money in my opinion. Much of it is lost in bureaucratic paper pushing. Incidentally, another pet peeve is Bush's prescription drug program. I have had the "privilege" of helping a person with this and the amount of paper this has generated is absolutely astounding, just in what is sent them in the mail to keep track of all of it, and it is so convoluted and confusing that to really understand it, it would take an hour or two a day just reading all the paperwork, and studying it, calling the company for clarification, etc.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 03:40 pm
okie wrote:

Its tough to identify the numbers that we need to look at this. It seems we are taxed in this country at around 28% of gdp according to one site, but does this include ss and medicare, state and local sales tax, etc.?
The ENTIRE Fed revenues, including SS and medicare, are about 17-18% of GDP these days. State and local tends to be about 1/2 of the Feds so your number would include everything.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 03:43 pm
How about state and local, plus sales tax, Parados? And where is your link showing this?
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engineer
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 03:58 pm
okie wrote:
How about state and local, plus sales tax, Parados? And where is your link showing this?

Here's one link for all in tax rate. Can't speak to the veracity.

Here's a better one showing federal and state/local over time.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 04:11 pm
okie wrote:
How about state and local, plus sales tax, Parados? And where is your link showing this?


wiki lists total US taxation as 26.8% in 2005
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_as_percentage_of_GDP


Here are totals as % of income
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=255313573617641&kw=

Here is a graph based on BEA numbers
http://carriedaway.blogs.com/carried_away/2003/10/us_government_s.html

table 3.1 here gives you total fed, state and local taxes. You can then do the comparison to GDP to get your %.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/SelectTable.asp
0 Replies
 
Advocate
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 04:28 pm
Don't you mean "optimal" rate?
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okie
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 04:35 pm
Thanks for the links cited. I don't know where all of this discussion goes now, but I think the issue is more than tax rates, but how we are taxed and where in the economic stream we are taxed. I feel the fair tax has merit and should be seriously debated. As far as the Laffer curve, I imagine we are for sure on the left side of the curve, but countries near the 50% taxation rate may be near the pinnacle or to the right of it.

I believe raising taxes must be accompanied by controlling the rate of spending increases over time. So it becomes a tug of war in terms of which comes first.
0 Replies
 
hanno
 
  1  
Reply Thu 31 Jan, 2008 08:53 pm
parados wrote:
Quote:
I say 6% off the top of all cash flow because it would be maybe a quarter of what we pay now when everything's going right, and if you count two hits on every buck of the GDP it should make half of the 3-trillion we need to run the joint.

If you count 2 hits on every buck for the GDP then you have doubled the GDP.


You got to spend money to make money.
0 Replies
 
 

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