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Is winning the Iowa Caucus really a good thing?

 
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 07:05 am
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 08:39 am
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 09:46 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.



This question was directed at Butrflynet, so why don't you let her answer it?

BTW: Zogby put out a tracking poll yesterday (half the results were gathered since Obama won Iowa), but it still gives Hillary a 1 point lead in New Hampshire.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 08:35 pm
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.



This question was directed at Butrflynet, so why don't you let her answer it?

BTW: Zogby put out a tracking poll yesterday (half the results were gathered since Obama won Iowa), but it still gives Hillary a 1 point lead in New Hampshire.


You really need to stop mucking up this forum with falsehoods. Start getting your facts straight or don't bother.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 09:09 pm
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.



This question was directed at Butrflynet, so why don't you let her answer it?

BTW: Zogby put out a tracking poll yesterday (half the results were gathered since Obama won Iowa), but it still gives Hillary a 1 point lead in New Hampshire.


Sorry, I thought you might be interested in broadening your information sources. My mistake.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 09:17 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.



This question was directed at Butrflynet, so why don't you let her answer it?

BTW: Zogby put out a tracking poll yesterday (half the results were gathered since Obama won Iowa), but it still gives Hillary a 1 point lead in New Hampshire.


Sorry, I thought you might be interested in broadening your information sources. My mistake.


flaja, please post a link to the Zogby poll you cite.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 09:28 pm
http://www.zogby.com/news/index.cfm

He's right. Yesterday's info looked that way, mostly because it included data from before the Iowa caucus.

Yesterday's released poll info:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1415


But, oh what a difference a day makes:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1416

Quote:
Democrat Barack Obama's dramatic post-Iowa momentum has come to full bloom in the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby New Hampshire daily tracking poll, rocketing to a 10-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton and a 20-point over Edwards. In New Hampshire's Republican primary race, the survey shows Arizona's John McCain had a very good day at the same time that Massachusetts's Mitt Romney lost ground, resulting in a five-point lead for McCain.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 09:30 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
flaja wrote:
Butrflynet wrote:
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:


Why?


So you won't continue making a fool of yourself.



This question was directed at Butrflynet, so why don't you let her answer it?

BTW: Zogby put out a tracking poll yesterday (half the results were gathered since Obama won Iowa), but it still gives Hillary a 1 point lead in New Hampshire.


Sorry, I thought you might be interested in broadening your information sources. My mistake.


flaja, please post a link to the Zogby poll you cite.


http://bbsnews.net/article.php/20080106202803678

I found this site this morning doing a Google search on "tracking poll'" and New Hampshire with the results limited to sites that had been updated in the last 24 hours.

A link on this page goes to poll results from Saturday in which Clinton had a 2 point lead over Obama in NH.

http://bbsnews.net/article.php/20080107155629924
This page has today's results, which reflect Obama's wide lead that the TV news has been talking about since last night. But note that Obama's gain doesn't seem to be coming very much from Hillary. She's only lost 3 points. Obama has gained 13 points but this is greater than the combined amount that the other Democrats have lost so a good bit of his support is coming from non-Democrats. This likely won't bode well in later elections where only Democrats can vote in the Democrat elections. Hillary still seems to be the choice of a plurality of Democrats even if Obama is more popular among the general electorate.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jan, 2008 11:46 pm
BTW Romney NOT winning Iowa was definitely a BAD THING. He is losing in NH now too except to McCain. It should be clear to anyone with a scintilla of political acumen that winning or not winning in Iowa this year made a BIG difference.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 06:59 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
BTW Romney NOT winning Iowa was definitely a BAD THING. He is losing in NH now too except to McCain. It should be clear to anyone with a scintilla of political acumen that winning or not winning in Iowa this year made a BIG difference.


No. Romney wasn't going anywhere to begin with. No governor of Massachusetts is ever going to win the South and without the South you cannot win either a nomination or general election.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 08:24 am
flaja wrote:
No. Romney wasn't going anywhere to begin with. No governor of Massachusetts is ever going to win the South and without the South you cannot win either a nomination or general election.

So who do you think is electable in the Republican race? Which of the Republican candidates does have the nationwide appeal to both partisan Republicans and Independents?
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:26 am
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
BTW Romney NOT winning Iowa was definitely a BAD THING. He is losing in NH now too except to McCain. It should be clear to anyone with a scintilla of political acumen that winning or not winning in Iowa this year made a BIG difference.


No. Romney wasn't going anywhere to begin with. No governor of Massachusetts is ever going to win the South and without the South you cannot win either a nomination or general election.


New Hampshire is in The South now? Why don't you just admit you are wrong?

Pat Buchanan says that Huckabee "is alive and well in S. Carolina" because of the Iowa result.

Clearly, winning in Iowa is a good thing, it doesn't guarantee anything of course.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 02:07 pm
Here is a dose of reality concerning Iowa
2008 Barack Obama gathered tremendous momentum and won New Hampshire and went on to win the party's nomination. (Unless he self-destructs)
2004 - John Kerry* (38%) won the party' s nomination.
2000 - Al Gore* (63%) won the party's nomination

1996 - Bill Clinton* (unopposed)

1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) Clinton took a pass and did not campaign in Iowa

1988 - Dick Gephardt (31%) won due to regional appeal

1984 - Walter Mondale* (49%) won the party's nomination
1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%) won the party's nomination
1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) Jimmy Carter* (28%) won the party's nomination despite his disastrous presidency.

1972 - Edmund Muskie (36%) self-destructed when he made the goofy I was drugged claim

Republicans:

2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)

2000- George W. Bush* (41%) "won" the presidency
1996- Bob Dole* (26%) won the party's nomination
1992- George H. W. Bush* (unopposed)

1988- Bob Dole (37%) lost the party's nomination to GHW Bush
1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) Ronald Reagan* (30%) virtually a dead heat, Regan went on to win the presidency.

1976-
Republicans paid comparatively little heed to the caucuses in 1976, although a straw poll was conducted at 62 sites, involving less than 600 participants. Gerald Ford was a narrow choice over Ronald Reagan, 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 05:24 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
New Hampshire is in The South now?


How have I said that NH is in the South? I merely said that the South isn't going to support a governor of Massachusetts. Romney won't get enough support in the South to win the nomination.

Pleas pay attention to what I actually say so you won't look like such a fool.

Quote:
Pat Buchanan says that Huckabee "is alive and well in S. Carolina" because of the Iowa result.


You accept bigots like Buchanan as an authority on politics?


BTW: Fox News this morning said that Hillary still has an 8 point lead in national polls.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 05:30 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
Here is a dose of reality concerning Iowa
2008 Barack Obama gathered tremendous momentum and won New Hampshire and went on to win the party's nomination. (Unless he self-destructs)
2004 - John Kerry* (38%) won the party' s nomination.
2000 - Al Gore* (63%) won the party's nomination

1996 - Bill Clinton* (unopposed)

1992 - Tom Harkin (76%) Clinton took a pass and did not campaign in Iowa

1988 - Dick Gephardt (31%) won due to regional appeal

1984 - Walter Mondale* (49%) won the party's nomination
1980 - Jimmy Carter (59%) won the party's nomination
1976 - "Uncommitted" (37%) Jimmy Carter* (28%) won the party's nomination despite his disastrous presidency.

1972 - Edmund Muskie (36%) self-destructed when he made the goofy I was drugged claim

Republicans:

2004- George W. Bush* (unopposed)

2000- George W. Bush* (41%) "won" the presidency
1996- Bob Dole* (26%) won the party's nomination
1992- George H. W. Bush* (unopposed)

1988- Bob Dole (37%) lost the party's nomination to GHW Bush
1984- Ronald Reagan* (unopposed)

1980- George H. W. Bush (32%) Ronald Reagan* (30%) virtually a dead heat, Regan went on to win the presidency.

1976-
Republicans paid comparatively little heed to the caucuses in 1976, although a straw poll was conducted at 62 sites, involving less than 600 participants. Gerald Ford was a narrow choice over Ronald Reagan, 51.6 percent to 48.4 percent.


Take out the incumbents and Iowa supports the Democrat Party nominee only about 43% of the time and the Republican nominee only 50% of the time.

Furthermore, only 26% of the candidates who win the Iowa Caucus for their respective party make to the White House.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 05:46 pm
Just admit your are wrong, old man.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 05:48 pm
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
New Hampshire is in The South now?


How have I said that NH is in the South? I merely said that the South isn't going to support a governor of Massachusetts. Romney won't get enough support in the South to win the nomination.

Pleas pay attention to what I actually say so you won't look like such a fool.

Quote:
Pat Buchanan says that Huckabee "is alive and well in S. Carolina" because of the Iowa result.


You accept bigots like Buchanan as an authority on politics?


BTW: Fox News this morning said that Hillary still has an 8 point lead in national polls.


LOL that would matter only if we were having a national primary. And Pat Buchanan knows a lot more about politics than you or even I.

And you can play around with numbers all you want but the fact of the matter is that my contention that winning Iowa meant a lot in the case of Barack Obama which was my sole initial point is unequivocally correct.

Just admit it and stop looking like a complete moron.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 07:13 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
Just admit your are wrong, old man.


Obviously you cannot count.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 07:16 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
And you can play around with numbers all you want but the fact of the matter is that my contention that winning Iowa meant a lot in the case of Barack Obama which was my sole initial point is unequivocally correct.


If Iowa meant so much to Obama, why is he 2 points behind Hillary right now in NH's vote count? Wasn't Obama supposed to walk away with NH?
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 8 Jan, 2008 09:21 pm
Is there some reason this discussion can't take place without the ridicule and name calling?
0 Replies
 
 

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