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Is winning the Iowa Caucus really a good thing?

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 08:20 am
flaja wrote:
I guess you don't understand arithmetic. It was either CNN or Fox that reported that 41% of 1st time caucus goers voted for Obama. 100 - 41 means that 59% of the 1st time caucus goers did not vote for Obama. He may have won a plurality of 1st time votes, but he won substantially less than a majority this vote.

Tell High Seas about the plurality/majority thing.. :wink:
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 08:20 am
Just to give a virtual impression ...

http://i1.tinypic.com/87a1eg7.jpg

http://i12.tinypic.com/7wpwz95.jpg

http://i13.tinypic.com/8fl9lcn.jpg

http://i4.tinypic.com/6sc0riw.jpg

source: 2008 Primary Results Exit Polls - Iowa Democrats
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 08:20 am
http://i4.tinypic.com/72swahv.jpg

http://i12.tinypic.com/6jva8ae.jpg

http://i7.tinypic.com/6k6e87m.jpg

Source: 2008 Primary Results Exit Polls Iowa Republicans
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 08:22 am
nimh wrote:
flaja wrote:
I guess you don't understand arithmetic. It was either CNN or Fox that reported that 41% of 1st time caucus goers voted for Obama. 100 - 41 means that 59% of the 1st time caucus goers did not vote for Obama. He may have won a plurality of 1st time votes, but he won substantially less than a majority this vote.

Tell High Seas about the plurality/majority thing.. :wink:



THAT would be fun ...
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 09:39 am
flaja wrote:
Roxxxanne wrote:
14% more women voters than Hillary[/url]


This page isn't there, but how do you turn 5 percentage points into 14? If 100 women voted, and Hillary got 30 votes and Obama got 35, then Obama got over 16% more women votes than Hillary got (5/30 = 1/6 = 16.67%), but Obama still only got 35% of the total women vote and 65% of the women who voted did not want Obama because they voted for someone else. You keep confusing a very slim plurality with overwhelming majority support.


I never said "overwhelming majoriity" The fact is that Clinton was counting on the female vote and Obama got 16% more than Clinton, that's a big margin. But even ONE SINGLE VOTE would have made my statement true.


You need to start thinking and fact checking before posting, you have zero credibility here.

I posted that Obama had gotten the youth vote out and flatulence responded:

flatulence wrote:
The polls I heard said the number of first-time caucus goers as a percentage of total caucus goers was only slightly higher this year than it had been in 2004 and that 59% of first-time Democrat Caucus goers this year voted for someone other than Obama.


Take a look at Walter's post above. 17-24 Obama 57% Clinton 10%
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 10:32 am
flaja wrote:
The polls I heard said the number of first-time caucus goers as a percentage of total caucus goers was only slightly higher this year than it had been in 2004 and that 59% of first-time Democrat Caucus goers this year voted for someone other than Obama.

The share of caucus goers under age 30 has increased from 9 percent of participants in 2000 to 17 percent in 2004 and 22 percent this year.

Slightly higher.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 10:48 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
flaja wrote:
The polls I heard said the number of first-time caucus goers as a percentage of total caucus goers was only slightly higher this year than it had been in 2004 and that 59% of first-time Democrat Caucus goers this year voted for someone other than Obama.

The share of caucus goers under age 30 has increased from 9 percent of participants in 2000 to 17 percent in 2004 and 22 percent this year.

Slightly higher.


23% increase roughly, that's a lot.

At any rate, anyone arguing that winning the 2008 Iowa caucus is not a good thing is clueless. Juxtapose Obama's current number in NH now compared to pre-Iowa.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:11 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
I never said "overwhelming majoriity" The fact is that Clinton was counting on the female vote and Obama got 16% more than Clinton, that's a big margin.


This margin you are talking about doesn't matter. What matters is the 5 percentage point margin in the split of the actual female vote. Obama got 35% of this vote; Hillary got 30%. That's roughly an even split. The women's vote will not give Obama the nomination.

Quote:
I posted that Obama had gotten the youth vote out and flatulence responded:


Obama did receive 57% of the vote from people younger than 30 and 42% of the vote from 30 to 44 year olds. But people younger than 45 accounted for only 41% of the total electorate. He only got 18% of the vote from people over 65 and people over 65 comprise the largest demographic group in the country. In the country as a whole the old will out-vote the young so Obama's support from the young will get him no where in the long run.

Quote:
Take a look at Walter's post above. 17-24 Obama 57% Clinton 10%


People aged 17 to 24 are not automatically 1st time caucus goers.

Take a look at the next to last table for the Democrats. Like I said Obama got only 41% of the 1st time caucus-goers' votes. The "young' and "first time caucus-goers" are not the same demographic. 59% of the people who had never before participated in the Iowa Democratic Caucus did not vote for Obama so if Obama brought these newcomers into the process, he help his opponents as much as he helped himself.

The table showing the percentage of 1st time caucus goers for the Democrats simply says Democrat caucus. It is possible that some of these people who voted in the Democrat Caucus for the 1st time may have voted in a Republican caucus before so they would not be not complete new comers to the process.

Perhaps if you traded some of your silicon for brains, you be able to pay attention to what people here are actually saying.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:16 am
Please stop wasting my time with your red herrings, obfuscations and logical fallacies. I have a life and I don't have time to argue with morons.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:17 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
flaja wrote:
The polls I heard said the number of first-time caucus goers as a percentage of total caucus goers was only slightly higher this year than it had been in 2004 and that 59% of first-time Democrat Caucus goers this year voted for someone other than Obama.

The share of caucus goers under age 30 has increased from 9 percent of participants in 2000 to 17 percent in 2004 and 22 percent this year.

Slightly higher.


17% to 22%, so Obama didn't really bring all that many newcomers into the process. Newcomers had about a 30% increase in terms of their proportion of the entire turnout, but a majority of their votes didn't go to the candidate that is being credited with getting them to the polls.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:21 am
I don't have time to waste arguing woth misogynist morons.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:29 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
Walter Hinteler wrote:
flaja wrote:
The polls I heard said the number of first-time caucus goers as a percentage of total caucus goers was only slightly higher this year than it had been in 2004 and that 59% of first-time Democrat Caucus goers this year voted for someone other than Obama.

The share of caucus goers under age 30 has increased from 9 percent of participants in 2000 to 17 percent in 2004 and 22 percent this year.

Slightly higher.


23% increase roughly, that's a lot.

At any rate, anyone arguing that winning the 2008 Iowa caucus is not a good thing is clueless. Juxtapose Obama's current number in NH now compared to pre-Iowa.


The 5 percentage points between 17% and 22% is 29.4% of 17 so where are you getting the 22% figure from? But this doesn't measure the increase in 1st time participants. 17% and 22% represent only the proportion of the entire turnout that is attributable to 1st time participants. You couldn't give a percent increase in 1st time participants without having the number of 1st time participants for the elections you are talking about. You'd likely be hard-pressed to find such detailed data, so we likely won't ever know what the increase in 1st timers is for this election.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 11:31 am
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 12:22 pm
flaja, you really should sell your opinions.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 03:14 pm
flaja wrote:
Obama didn't really bring all that many newcomers into the process.

57% of all participants in this year's caucuses had never attended an Iowa Democratic presidential caucus before (as per the entrance polls linked in by Walter).

Obama got 41% of those votes.

So when you want to know how many newcomers Obama brought into the process, we're talking about [41% of 57% = 23%] of all caucusgoers.

The Iowa Democratic Party does not release vote counts, but according to CNN, the Democratic caucuses drew more than 227,000 voters, almost double the Republican turnout (see Wikipedia).

23% of 227,000 voters = 52,210 voters.

About 50,000 people went to the Iowa caucuses for the first time in their life in order to vote for Barack Obama. That's not chickenshit.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 03:35 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
I don't have time to waste arguing woth misogynist morons.


That's all well and good considering that your arguments don't hold water.

If winning Iowa is so all-fired important, why isn't it doing for Huckabee what you claim it is doing for Obama? Iowa doesn't matter.
0 Replies
 
Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 06:10 pm
For Obama, winning Iowa was a BIG THING and all my points are valid. In fact, Obama is mentioning the very same points in his stump speeches.

Latest poll shows Obama ahead by 12 points in NH.

I don't give a rat's ass about Huckabee, I didn't mention anything about him. His win in Iowa was a result of support from Evangelicals. And clueless brings him up as a Red Herring. Really, this clown boggles the mind.

Some people here need to spend their time garnering info instead of spending every waking hour posting mindless drool here.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 08:36 pm
Roxxxanne wrote:
For Obama, winning Iowa was a BIG THING and all my points are valid. In fact, Obama is mentioning the very same points in his stump speeches.

Latest poll shows Obama ahead by 12 points in NH.


It's 9:30 pm EST and ABC/CNN just reported a tracking poll that has Clinton and Obama tied in NH at 33% each. What poll are you talking about?
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 09:17 pm
Flaja,

Please check out the polls at each of these links and come back and summarize what you found:

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/01/obama-up-by-13.html

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/01/06/strategic_vision_poll_obama_opens_up_lead_mccain_ahead.html

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_democratic_primary

http://suffolk.edu/26006.html

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/24287.html

http://www.yourconcord.com/primaryblog/monitor_post_iowa_poll_mccain_6_obama_1
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jan, 2008 10:08 pm
Or, to make things a little easier:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/01-06%20NH%20summary.png
0 Replies
 
 

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