IMMIGRATION RED-HOT CAMPAIGN ISSUE

Immigration is a red-hot issue in the current presidential campaigns. Accompanying this is the issue of whether immigrants should be required to learn English. Democrats could lose out as a result of the tougher immigration stances of Republicans.


Immigration looms as presidential campaign issue
By Paul West | Washington Bureau Chief, NYT
December 16, 2007

MARSHALLTOWN, Iowa - The prairie fire ignited by immigration is turning into an inferno, with potentially explosive impact on the 2008 election.

Already, it has become the defining issue in the battle between Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee for first place in Iowa's Jan. 3 presidential caucuses. But while immigration is drawing attention as a Republican issue - driven by attack and response ads on TV - it's not solely a concern of Republican voters.

Immigration is also a worry for a significant, and possibly growing, number of Democrats and independents, too. And that could pose an especially tricky problem for the Democratic nominee, who will almost certainly have to deal with Republican attempts to use immigration as a wedge issue to split off Democratic votes in the fall election.

The other day, when Democratic candidate John Edwards came to Marshalltown, about an hour's drive through the countryside from the capital city of Des Moines, getting the immigration problem fixed was on the minds of some of those who heard his pitch.

"It has taken a lot of our jobs away," says Clyde Knoll, 74, who has lived in this town of 27,000 all his life. "What are you going to do about immigration, to stop all the erosion of our jobs and stuff that's coming into this country?"

Edwards assured the roomful of prospective caucus-goers that he was fully aware of just "how hot and divisive this issue is. I do understand that." Still, the "mess" on "our southern border" can be remedied, he says. Technology, including unmanned drones, more border patrol agents and new fences at strategic spots along the U.S.-Mexico line could help stop illegal entry into this country. The government also needs to crack down on employers who violate the law, he says.

Then he added a final point, one that, he acknowledges, is "a little more controversial - If you want to become an American citizen, you ought to learn to speak English." The nearly all-white audience burst into applause.

As they left the room, Iowa voters confronted a table arrayed with a variety of Edwards campaign literature, one of which omitted his English-before-citizenship message: A stack of full-color brochures, printed on slick magazine paper with text completely in Spanish, promoted "John Edwards para Presidente. Caucuses de Iowa - 3 de enero."

The Spanish-language fliers, aimed at Iowa's small but expanding Latino population, touted his plans to end the war in Iraq, strengthen schools for all children, toughen civil rights enforcement and gain passage in Congress of the DREAM act, which would offer a way for younger illegal immigrants to become U.S. citizens. The brochure also detailed Edwards' immigration plan: strengthen border enforcement, punish employers and devise a path to citizenship that would reunite families kept apart by immigration problems. His proposal to make proficiency in English a requirement for citizenship wasn't mentioned. (The flier did give the Internet address of Edwards' Spanish language Web site, which includes the English-language requirement.)

Once the general election campaign gets under way, it may not be so easy for Democrats to offer selective messages to different audiences on this incendiary issue. And while most of the Republican candidates seem ready, if not eager, to capitalize on anti-immigrant attitudes, the Democratic nominee will have to walk a more nuanced line.

The reason for that balancing act lies in one of the biggest advantages Democrats are thought to enjoy in the '08 election: lopsided support across the country from Hispanic voters, whose influence could be pivotal. These voters are concentrated in a number of states that President Bush carried narrowly in the last election, including New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Florida. If Hispanics vote Democratic in large enough numbers next fall, they could bring those states to the Democratic side.

The meeting with Edwards left Knoll dissatisfied with the candidate's answer to his question about immigration. The Democratic voter said that his party's politicians aren't getting nearly tough enough on the problem.

"I'm sorry to say, a lot of them even favor this immigration," Knoll says.

This heartland state might be far from the Mexican border, but the immigration issue has become inflamed in recent years. Politicians of both parties point to a variety of causes, from economic anxieties to racism to the drumbeat from conservative and populist commentators such as CNN's Lou Dobbs.

Here in Marshalltown, where anywhere from 6,000 to 8,000 Mexicans have moved in since the early 1990s, local officials have worked hard to cope with the influx. A raid by the Immigration service at a meatpacking plant last December drew national attention, but some residents say the community has turned a corner in dealing with the strains on local schools and other social problems.

Many remain troubled, though. Ken Callen, 58, retired from his job as a production controller at the Lennox Industries factory, feels that things were better before Hispanics migrated to his hometown. An independent voter who plans to caucus for Edwards, he believes the recent arrivals should have to learn English. Shown a copy of his candidate's Spanish language brochure, he shrugged.

"Well, you've got to reach the masses," he says with a smile.

He also thinks folks in other parts of the country are kidding themselves if they believe illegal immigration won't become a problem for them, too.

"This is probably a bad comparison, but it's like your neighbor has 10 or 12 cockroaches," he says. "Or mice. Or rabbits."

Recent national opinion surveys confirm a sharp swing toward the Democrats among Hispanics, who increasingly regard the Republican Party as hostile to their interests. That shift is due, at least in part, to Congress's failure to approve comprehensive immigration reform this year and a perception that Republicans were largely to blame.

Registered Latino voters favor Democrats over Republicans by a margin of 34 percentage points, up from 21 points from last year, according to a nationwide survey by the Pew Hispanic Center. But Latinos may cast less than 7 percent of the vote in next fall's election, the Pew center also reported.

Democratic gains among Hispanics could be neutralized in the selection of the next president if a tough Republican line on immigration attracts a significant number of independent and Democratic votes. That could certainly be the case in closely contested Iowa, where Democrats barely won in 2000 and Republicans prevailed by a narrow margin in 2004. Strategists will be watching other swing states as well, to see how one of the hottest issues plays out next fall.