Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

I am not, B'Fly, being argumentative or defensive about the lov turnout vs eligible voters in VA, I was suggesting that it is not unusual compared to other states.

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Looking at the numbers now, it looks like Virginia will see about the same percentage voter turnout. The larger precincts are reporting in now.

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Well, if it makes you feel better, I wasn't commenting on the low voter turnout, I was commenting on the small population count representing 50% of the precincts counted.

Now the larger precincts are reporting in and the population numbers are increasing too.

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Whatever.
With 75% of the Dem precincts in, Obama leads by 64% to 35%.
With 64% of the Repubs in, McCain leads 47% to 44%.
Looks like I may have the winners right (duh, any idiot could do that) but I am way off on the percentages.
550,000 voted in the Dem primary vs 205,000 in the Repub amonst votes counted thus far.

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Quote:

Fixing error gives Obama sweep of all state's counties
By Bob Young
Seattle Times staff reporter

It turns out Barack Obama did win every county in Washington state's Democratic caucuses on Saturday.

The state Democratic Party had initially reported that Hillary Rodham Clinton won just a single county, Douglas, in Eastern Washington by a 53-32 count of delegates.

But now party leaders say someone misreported the results. The correct tally in Douglas County, according to state party Executive Director Jaxon Ravens, is 65 delegates for Obama and 37 for Clinton, completing Obama's sweep of all 39 Washington counties.

"We had a lot of results coming in Saturday night and the person who took down the [Douglas County] results just transposed the numbers. We apologize that the information was misreported on the night of the caucus but we've corrected the error and it's not going to affect the allocation of delegates," Ravens said.

Democrats selected 33,904 delegates statewide through the caucus, Ravens said, and the Douglas County gaffe involved about one-third of 1 percent of all Washington state delegates to the legislative caucuses and county conventions.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politics/2004177635_douglasdemocrats12m.html

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Is it meaningful? I don't know, but -

watching the video of the Clinton speech right now in El Paso, the crowd is entirely female. I think I see one male and dozens and dozens of women in the screen right now.

Plus, she needs a better haircut. lol

Cycloptichorn

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She's got a new speech, though. I caught that shout out to the young folks.

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Chuck Todd just said Clinton has to win TX, OH and PA by 63% or so to catch Obama after Wisconsin and Hawaii. I'd like to see the math, but if so, that's insurmountable. She won't get those numbers.

---Kos

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Roxxxanne wrote:

Chuck Todd just said Clinton has to win TX, OH and PA by 63% or so to catch Obama after Wisconsin and Hawaii. I'd like to see the math, but if so, that's insurmountable. She won't get those numbers.

---Kos

Yup.

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HI and WI aren't slam dunks for Obama yet. There is still a bit of nervousness there.

There's still a lot of work to be done yet.

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Nah. It's all over. You can rest now.

Joking aside, all the various numbers including the demographics he is beginning to capture from Hillary and the momentum he continues to build and the enthusiasm he continues to generate makes him look pretty darned good as the likely candidate. His speech tonight, like always, was electrifying. He is, and I'm quoting Karl Rove speaking tonight on Fox, an extraordinary talent and a historic figure.

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Per MSNBC, huge numbers of Republicans cross over to vote as Dems.

Cycloptichorn

Most of the votes in in VA, 64% for Obama vs 35% for Clinton 816,000 votes cast in the Dem primary.

Over on the Repub side 50% for McCain vs 41% for Huckabee. 317,000 players there and much closer than I thought.

Which brings me to Cyclop's post above. Why, if MSNBC is correct, would a lot of folks defect from, I assume, McCain, in order to play in the Dem sandbox today? And if they in fact did, they appear not to have surged in great numbers for either Obama or Clinton.

What is going on in the Repub party?

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realjohnboy wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Per MSNBC, huge numbers of Republicans cross over to vote as Dems.

Cycloptichorn

Most of the votes in in VA, 64% for Obama vs 35% for Clinton 816,000 votes cast in the Dem primary.

Over on the Repub side 50% for McCain vs 41% for Huckabee. 317,000 players there and much closer than I thought.

Which brings me to Cyclop's post above. Why, if MSNBC is correct, would a lot of folks defect from, I assume, McCain, in order to play in the Dem sandbox today? And if they in fact did, they appear not to have surged in great numbers for either Obama or Clinton.

What is going on in the Repub party?

Er, from CNN -

Quote:

Voters who described themselves as independents made up 22 percent of those who cast a ballot in Virginia's Democratic primary and 13 percent in Maryland, according to the polling. Those voters favored Obama by a margin of 66 percent to 33 percent in Virginia and 68 to 24 in Maryland.

Seems to be a lot of independents favoring Obama over Clinton, and 'specially over McCain!

Quote:

But there was a slight uptick in what the Illinois senator has dubbed "Obamacans" on Tuesday. Seven percent of voters in the Virginia primary described themselves as Republicans -- and 70 percent of those polled voted for Obama.

Seems that Obama took the lion's share of Republican crossovers, and independents.

8/10 in the three states today said they would be satisfied with Obama as the nominee.

Only 2/3 in the three states today said they would be satisfied with Clinton as the nominee.

Cycloptichorn

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Butrflynet wrote:

HI and WI aren't slam dunks for Obama yet. There is still a bit of nervousness there.

There's still a lot of work to be done yet.

Well, unfortunately, I am not working on this campaign, so I am just going to enjoy watching the inevitable take place. Howard Fineman just confirmed the best Clinton can do against Obama will to fall 20 short in committed delegates. Then Hillary would hope the Super Delegates would come through for her. That ain't gonna happen. Obama has it in the bag now.

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Bedtime for johnboy. They give us a green pill and a red one and we, hopefully, will wake up tomorrow.

So 22% of voters described themselves as Indys and they split 3-1 for Obama. Fine. I can accept that, I guess.
But then, 7% of Repubs crossed over and voted in the Dem primary. And MSNBC describes that as huge? They went to Obama by 7-3, but how huge is huge?

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realjohnboy wrote:

But then, 7% of Repubs crossed over and voted in the Dem primary. And MSNBC describes that as huge? They went to Obama by 7-3, but how huge is huge?

But your summary is wrong. It's not that "7% of Repubs crossed over and voted in the Dem primary", it's that 7% of voters in the Dem primary were Republicans.

With a turnout in the Democratic primary of 973,000, that makes for some 68,000 Republicans voting in the Dem primary.

Meanwhile, Republicans made up 76% of voters in the Republican primary - but turnout in the Republican primary was much lower. Meaning that this 76% made up about 361,000 voters.

So, of a total of 429,000 Republican voters in these primaries, 68,000 voted in the Democratic primaries. That's 16%, or one in six -- that's pretty huge. And of those 68,000, almost three-quarters went to vote for Obama (72%, according to the current update of the exit polls).

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realjohnboy wrote:

So 22% of voters described themselves as Indys and they split 3-1 for Obama. Fine. I can accept that, I guess.

The Indy vote is interesting too.

22% of voters in the Dem primaries were independents. And according to the latest update, they split 7-3 for Obama.

Independents also made up 21% of the voters in the Republican primaries. But we're talking about a much smaller number of people, because turnout in that primary was much lower.

In all, then, there were about 100,000 Indys voting in the Republican race, while about 214,000 of the Indys (or 68%) voted in the Democratic race.

Surprisingly, flying in the face of the pattern in all previous primaries I've seen, McCain actually did worse among Indys in the Republican primary than among self-described Republicans, with 40% of the Indys going for Huckabee and 38% for McCain.

Splitting up the total Indy vote by candidate, this is what we get:

How did Virginia Independents vote?

148,000 - Obama (69% of 214k)
64,000 - Clinton (30% of 214k)
40,000 - Huckabee (40% of 100k)
38,000 - McCain (38% of 100k)
18,000 - Ron Paul (18% of 100k)
6,000 - Others (4% of 100k + 1% of 214k)

314,000 - Total

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I love it when you spout numbers like that, nimh. Kidding -- just wanted to drop back in for a sec and reiterate that you've done a fabulous job with this thread. Thank you.

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JPB wrote:

I love it when you spout numbers like that, nimh.

Hmm.. and just imagine what it would feel like if I would whisper them into your ear, while caressing your neck with my fingertips...

Seriously, thank you very much! That was very kind Smile

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nimh wrote:

realjohnboy wrote:
So 22% of voters described themselves as Indys and they split 3-1 for Obama. Fine. I can accept that, I guess.

The Indy vote is interesting too.

22% of voters in the Dem primaries were independents. And according to the latest update, they split 7-3 for Obama.

Independents also made up 21% of the voters in the Republican primaries. But we're talking about a much smaller number of people, because turnout in that primary was much lower.

In all, then, there were about 100,000 Indys voting in the Republican race, while about 214,000 of the Indys (or 68%) voted in the Democratic race.

Surprisingly, flying in the face of the pattern in all previous primaries I've seen, McCain actually did worse among Indys in the Republican primary than among self-described Republicans, with 40% of the Indys going for Huckabee and 38% for McCain.

Splitting up the total Indy vote by candidate, this is what we get:

How did Virginia Independents vote?

148,000 - Obama (69% of 214k)
64,000 - Clinton (30% of 214k)
40,000 - Huckabee (40% of 100k)
38,000 - McCain (38% of 100k)
18,000 - Ron Paul (18% of 100k)
6,000 - Others (4% of 100k + 1% of 214k)

314,000 - Total

I mentioned this in the "Obama '08" thread last night but I think it bears repeating - Primary results carry very little, if any, weight as far as extrapolating how any general election results might turn out (other than the obvious of determining who the party's nominee will be).

I've seen comments from several people on blogs and in Editorial Letters where people try to use the primary numbers as some sort of crystal ball into how the general election will turn out but the logic used doesn't hold up to any basic level of scrutiny.

How Independents (or Republicans for that matter) voted in the Dem Primaries only tells us who they prefer is that race. It doesn't tell us WHY they voted the way they did. Did the 148,000 (using nimh's numbers) Independents that voted for Obama in the VA primary vote for him because they really want to see him as President? Was it because they are anti-Clinton? Anti-McCain?

While it is tempting to think that independents will break in the same ways in the general election, that may not be the case at all.

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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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