Poll Watching

Forums: Polls, Politics, Election, 2012
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As we head into the final two weeks, there are three sites I watch to see how the winds are blowing. The first is fivethirtyeight.com where statistician extrodinary Nate Silver attempts to roll every bit of election probability into one big pool and run a monte carlo simulation on the country. He is calling the electoral college as 288-250 Obama with a 68% chance of the President being re-elected and a one to two seat pickup in the Senate. If you favor a conservative voice, you can try Election Projection. That site is calling for Obama to win 281 to 257 and the Democrats to pick up one Senate and one House seat but lose three governors. If you prefer a liberal take, try Electoral-Vote.com. He's calling for Obama 281 - 244 with 13 toss-ups, a pick up of one Senate seat for the Democrats and one other toss-up. Despite the differences in political outlook, all three are in about the same place right now. It looks like Romney needs an Ohio surprise to pull this off. The rest of use should probably get popcorn and rent some movies on election night.

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Type: Discussion • Score: 13 • Views: 5,563 • Replies: 29

Texas attorney general says he will arrest UN poll observers if they get within a hundred feet. I figure this tidbit will fit here as well as any thread.

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@engineer,

In addition to the above the main one I look at is TPM's polltracker, a nice one-stop:

http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com

Meanwhile, here in Ohio I just sent an email to my local campaign person saying PUT ME TO WORK! There's been a lot of emphasis on calling and canvassing, both of which are a problem for me. (Calling is out, canvassing could work but I don't think saying "what was that?" every other sentence is a great way to convince anyone.) Last election there was a lot more I could do. If I don't get a response to this email I think I'll just show up at the closest office and see what I can do, if only bringing snacks for the people who are calling and canvassing.

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@edgarblythe,

Is that a Polish joke?

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@Ragman,

That are a lot of Poles in Texas, but, no, it is the truth.

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@edgarblythe,

Yeah, I've seen many polling places in the past pretty lax on the 100 ft. rule.

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Polls are a lot like gay boys they go up and down. Cool

It’s still looking good for Obama but who know what can happen in the next few days.

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@jcboy,

538 is a great site. The number refers to how many electors there are in the Electoral College.

537 is an even more important number.

It is the number of votes by which George W. Bush was declared the winner of the popular vote in Florida in the year 2000.

Joe(Get registered and GO VOTE)Nation

1 Reply

What's funny to me is to see the wide difference in polls that are accepted/averaged by different sites. One popular one - RealClearPolitics - is a GOP-leaning site, and therefore in many cases will not post polls that are not favorable to their position.

Cycloptichorn

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Ask the right questions and you can get what ever result you want. Polls suck.

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@RABEL222,

Have you ever worked on a poll? It doesn't do anybody any good to "come up with whatever result you want" especially not the ones paying for the poll.

If the question is "Do these pants make my ass look fat?" the only answer worth getting is the true answer. Otherwise, you go out wearing the pants that make your ass look fat.

Joe(Savvy?)Nation

1 Reply

@Joe Nation,

Joe Nation wrote:

Joe(Get registered and GO VOTE)Nation

i tried, apparently you need to be a citizen

bummer, i wanted to vote ross perot on a write in ballot

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Poll Watching

i tried to go pole watching once, but the naked girls at the club kept getting in the way

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Do any of you here think that Romney will win the popular vote, and Obama will win the electoral college vote?

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@Enzo,

Maybe. From fivethirtyeight.com, here are the scenario analyses

Quote:

Scenario Analysis
How often the following situations occurred during repeated simulated elections.

Electoral College tie (269 electoral votes for each candidate) 0.5%
Recount (one or more decisive states within 0.5 percentage points) 10.0% Obama wins popular vote 67.2%
Romney wins popular vote 32.8%
Obama wins popular vote but loses electoral college 1.8%
Romney wins popular vote but loses electoral college 5.6%
Obama landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.6%
Romney landslide (double-digit popular vote margin) 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2008 0.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2004 <0.1%
Obama loses at least one state he carried in 2008 99.5%
Obama wins at least one state he failed to carry in 2008 4.9%

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@Ragman,

We lived across the street from a school and our front porch was within a hundred feet of the polling place door, so no signs from us. I'm mixed re a lot of signage anyway, however odd that opinion is. Blight on the landscape, she whines.

I may be dragging out my Obama tee once again, but I'm subtle in the wearing of it, wearing it under a long sleeved shirt, it being colder here now, so people can only see maybe the middle A and a bit of the M. Unless I flash 'em, and that's so not me.

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I was reading a few minutes back that the gambling sector is favoring an Obama win.

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@sozobe,

Yer the greatest, soz. Now, if i could only change your viewpoint.

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@roger,

I think she's the greatest too, and like her viewpoint.

I just skimmed this article in slate about the deployment of the candidate by their respective forces in this short time pre election -
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/10/battleground_states_the_obama_and_romney_campaigns_must_choose_wisely_where.html

It reminds me of "meeting" a candidate once, and some mind changing that happened after his election and time in office.
My father took me to see John Kennedy come in at the LA airport sometime in the campaign in '60. There were about forty of us, or some number similar, hanging out in some hanger when he disembarked, said some words, and moved along. Forty of us, in an airport hanger. Huh, I think now. My father turned against Kennedy sometime later, but I still liked him until I changed somewhat too, stopping with any hero worship stuff.

Anyway, meeting the candidate is so different now.

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@Joe Nation,

As you said, Joe, you get what you "pay" for.

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