fishin wrote:I mentioned this in the "Obama '08" thread last night but I think it bears repeating - Primary results carry very little, if any, weight as far as extrapolating how any general election results might turn out (other than the obvious of determining who the party's nominee will be).
Hhmmmm...
In the other thread, I echoed your sentiment. I think it's foolish to, as Finn was doing, extrapolate from one candidate winning the primaries to that candidate having the better chance in the general elections. After all, the same things that endear you to a majority of your party's stalwarts, may turn off the floating voters you need in the general elections.
However, it is another thing to examine what independent voters do. They're not party stalwarts. They constitute a sizable chunk of the people you also need to win over in general elections.
If independent voters in Virginia were twice as likely to be motivated to vote by one of the Democratic candidates than by one of the Republican candidates, that is a good sign.
It's nothing much more than that - it doesnt guarantee anything. A lot of factors could be at work -- for example, people thinking that McCain already had it in the bag, so didnt need their vote anymore; better to vote in the (close) Democratic race where your vote still counts for something. But 2:1 is a huge difference, and it is a difference that has emerged time after time, if not quite to this degree, in previous primaries too. Even when the Republican race was still close, it wasnt attracting close to as many independent voters as the Democratic primary did.
There is no guarantee that the indys who decided to vote in the Dem race rather than the Rep one in all of these past primaries will also pull the Dem lever in the GE, of course, no. But it does show an enthusiasm gap of sorts - if many more usually floating/undecided voters take the trouble to go vote for you than for a candidate in the other party, there's evidently more excitement/enthusiasm about your race. That is a good sign, regardless.