Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

I did.

Butrflynet wrote:

I did.

What?

maporsche wrote:

Butrflynet wrote:

I did.

What?

1. As soon as Gore made it abundantly clear that he was not going to run, Obama's polling numbers sharply increased.

2. That as soon as Edwards withdrew from the race, Obama's numbers sharply increased again.

3. That the Clinton and Obama lines on the graph were mirror images of each other up until the point of Bill's "mistake" in SC and they have taken off from there and not stopped.

4. That Obama's overall polling popularity is not affected by the outcomes of elections in various states while Clinton's has nearly flat-lined.

5. That a factual display of the overall polling popularity of the Obama candidacy irritates his opponents into making rude posts nearly as much as an emotional display of his popularity by his supporters.

Number 2 can indicate that Edwards supporters kept the initial surge going, and added a little to Hillary as they reappropriated themselves.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Number 2 can indicate that Edwards supporters kept the initial surge going, and added a little to Hillary as they reappropriated themselves.

Cycloptichorn

That's a better wording than "2. That as soon as Edwards withdrew from the race, Obama's numbers sharply increased again".

fbaezer wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Number 2 can indicate that Edwards supporters kept the initial surge going, and added a little to Hillary as they reappropriated themselves.

Cycloptichorn

That's a better wording than "2. That as soon as Edwards withdrew from the race, Obama's numbers sharply increased again".

It's only accurate in terms of raw numbers, not in terms of momentum.

Oh, and it was a compliment.
On my odd years I've worked as a pollster-advisor. :wink:

Actually, I left the guy I worked for with a 27 point lead against his opponents in the primaries for Mexico's conservative party. But he was the typical bird-brain who took polls like they were popularity ratings... and understood little of their richness. He decided the race was won (not even one primary had passed!) and, since one of his "weaknesses" was that he was seen as a newcomer in the party, decided to work only with party members.
He finished second place in all but a couple of primaries.

Thank God about that. He would certainly have lost against the populist candidate and we'd have now a Chavez clone in the Presidency.

Damnit! I hate when others do that...

sorry

Cycloptichorn

ps it is BIG mo tho, takes a big graph hehehe

It helps us see the race as it should be seen: as moving tendencies.

Too often, near the wake of Supertuesday, just about every poll on this thread has been received as if this was some sort of a popularity contest. Cheers, booing, and head-breaking comments on how things can supposedly change on a day.
THAT'S NOT THE WAY TO READ POLLS.

Things hardly ever change on a day. The big chunk of day-to-day changes in tracking polls are due to different samples (it's polls, not panels what we've been studying), often made by different pollsters who have different house effects. So it's plain silly to go: "Yeah!", "Ohhh!" at a moment's shift.

Tendencies are a different thing. Cyclo's graph helps us to do it. Interpreting the tendencies [..] is the art of the pollster-advisor.

Obama Campaign Projects Deadlocked Race After Primaries Finish

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama's campaign is forecasting that the Democratic presidential race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding primaries ahead of the schedule set out by the party. Clinton, who won uncontested primaries in both states, is vowing a fight to have those delegates -- slated to be 366 in total -- seated at the nominating convention.

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said, adding that the release of the information was unintended.

Another issue is the so-called super delegates, 796 Democratic officials and officeholders who aren't bound by the results of primaries and caucuses. Obama's campaign projects about half will be pledged to either the Illinois senator or Clinton, and the rest could swing the nomination.

A Draw

After a year of campaigning and 26 contested primaries and caucuses since January, Obama and Clinton have essentially battled to a draw. After yesterday's Super Tuesday voting in 22 states across the country, the two candidates are separated by less than 30 delegates in the nomination race.

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

Before being penalized, Florida had a total of 210 convention delegates and Michigan had 156.

Clinton, 60, won half the popular vote in Florida's Jan. 29 primary, though none of the candidates publicly campaigned in the state. While she got 55 percent of the vote in Michigan, Obama withdrew his name from the ballot and the next highest vote went to uncommitted.

The campaign document shows Obama, 46, prevailing in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia in next week's primaries. Wins are also forecast in Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington.

Democratic Party rules call for dividing delegates proportionally based on the popular vote, and Obama's campaign anticipates a close race in most states to the end.

Interesting:

IMAGE: Active pollsters report card through 020608

From SUSA's site, of course (given that they're at the top of the list).