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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:17 pm
nimh wrote-

Quote:
but men only made up 43% of the voters, women 57%.


That sounds like the end of the line to me.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:20 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
nimh wrote:
FreeDuck wrote:
They'll adjust those GA polls to the actual results. The exit polls in SC had Obama at 70%.


Not really. I jotted down the data from the South Carolina exit polls here just half an hour after the polls closed, and he had 55%. I dont think it was ever anywhere near 70%.


I don't know if it's the same poll, but what they were showing on CNN when they called it (before the votes were even actually counted) was 70% for Obama. That number came down as the votes rolled in. I think something similar will happen with GA, and in fact has already. They're at 56-40 now.


With what percentage of the vote in?

Smaller and more rural precincts go first...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:20 pm
nimh wrote:
Massachusetts is very, very close apparently, in the Dem race:

Exit poll preliminary data: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21225986

Have Clinton leading among women 56% to 41%, and Obama leading among men 58% to 37% -- but men only made up 43% of the voters, women 57%.


That calculates into... 48,3% for Obama and 47,8% for Clinton. For now.

Compare that to what the polls had been saying. Clinton is getting what she was polled for, but Obama is outdoing all the polling numbers..
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:22 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
FreeDuck wrote:
nimh wrote:
FreeDuck wrote:
They'll adjust those GA polls to the actual results. The exit polls in SC had Obama at 70%.


Not really. I jotted down the data from the South Carolina exit polls here just half an hour after the polls closed, and he had 55%. I dont think it was ever anywhere near 70%.


I don't know if it's the same poll, but what they were showing on CNN when they called it (before the votes were even actually counted) was 70% for Obama. That number came down as the votes rolled in. I think something similar will happen with GA, and in fact has already. They're at 56-40 now.


With what percentage of the vote in?

Smaller and more rural precincts go first...

Cycloptichorn


With zero percent of the vote in. CNN called SC for Obama based on the exit polls.

Of course, it's entirely possible that my memory does me in.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:22 pm
Soz, it is the bewitching hour for you.... I'm 10 minutes late in pushing you. :::ducks:::



Nimh, found a link for you and Anastasia... It's the charter for the DNC and has just about any rule you could ever hope to read about the convention.

http://www.democrats.org/a/2006/01/dnc_charter_and.php
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:22 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
FreeDuck wrote:
I don't know if it's the same poll, but what they were showing on CNN when they called it (before the votes were even actually counted) was 70% for Obama. That number came down as the votes rolled in. I think something similar will happen with GA, and in fact has already. They're at 56-40 now.


With what percentage of the vote in?

Smaller and more rural precincts go first...

Yeah, sounds like those were not the exit poll numbers then, but the running total of the counted votes, which would have been starting out with the results from some smaller precincts..
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:24 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Soz, it is the bewitching hour for you.... I'm 10 minutes late in pushing you. :::ducks:::


No, I said 9:30 EST! I still have another hour aaaand... 6 minutes.

Shove me then though!
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:24 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
With zero percent of the vote in. CNN called SC for Obama based on the exit polls.

Of course, it's entirely possible that my memory does me in.

No no, thats true - they called it for Obama with 0% of the vote in. But 70% in the exit polls cant have been. ANyway, no matter, not important.

CNN is saying Obama is leading in Connecticut - dunno if thats exit polls or preliminary count..
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:24 pm
Do you guys want to see these posts with actual results continue or are the exit poll predictions sufficient?



Georgia
Last Updated Tuesday, February 05, 2008 8:21:07 PM


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

President of the United States
Republican
10% of precincts reporting Votes Percentage

Rudy Giuliani 572 0.7%
Mike Huckabee 29,149 36.0%
Duncan Hunter 76 0.1%
Alan Keyes 114 0.1%
John McCain 26,304 32.5%
Ron Paul 2,057 2.5%
Mitt Romney 22,313 27.6%
Tom Tancredo 29 0.0%
Fred Thompson 319 0.4%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

President of the United States
Democratic
10% of precincts reporting Votes Percentage

Joe Biden 228 0.4%
Hillary Clinton 25,543 39.6%
Chris Dodd 87 0.1%
John Edwards 1,870 2.9%
Mike Gravel 79 0.1%
Dennis J. Kucinich 162 0.3%
Barack Obama 36,295 56.3%
Bill Richardson 193 0.3%
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:26 pm
According to Chris Bowers..

Quote:

Update 3: First Exit Poll Estimates: These are bound to change, but the exit polls for the 8 p.m. states are

AL: O 54-41 C

CT: O 53--46 C

DE: O 49-44 C

MA: O 49-48 C

MO: C 47-45 O

NJ: C 49-49 O

OK: C 58--33 O

TN: C 51-40 0

more as I figure them out...


Not too shabby so far...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:26 pm
You're probably right, nimh. I just remember them showing that pie chart with Obama at 70% but zero percent precincts reporting and making the assumption that they were showing polling data. Of course, I do have a terrible memory and I might have blurred the images.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:27 pm
nimh wrote:
FreeDuck wrote:
With zero percent of the vote in. CNN called SC for Obama based on the exit polls.

Of course, it's entirely possible that my memory does me in.

No no, thats true - they called it for Obama with 0% of the vote in. But 70% in the exit polls cant have been. ANyway, no matter, not important.

CNN is saying Obama is leading in Connecticut - dunno if thats exit polls or preliminary count..


Seems to be preliminary count (the precincts that have reported so far).

Or maybe both -- MSNBC numbers were 50/47 Obama.

Butrflynet, MSNBC is pretty good at providing numbers so no need for you to from my perspective -- not sure if others are getting their own numbers or not though.

As a general concept I'm very interested in the actual returns vs. projections, yes!! (E.G. just asked for an update and I said that things look good... a bit too good. Don't trust the numbers yet.)
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:29 pm
MSNBC reports that nationally Obama wins every age group up to the age of 50.

Wow

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:29 pm
Just browsing through the exit poll pages and the data as listed on there right now, for the moment.. oooh my good..

Alabama - Obama 54, Clinton 41

Connecticut - Obama 50, Clinton 46

HUGE gender gaps..
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:31 pm
Men must have rocked back then.

Arkansas called for Clinton.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:32 pm
NPR has a comprehensive chart going with all the primaries by state and shows projections and delegate count:

http://www.npr.org/?pageDepth=2
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:33 pm
Arkansas for Hillary and Huckabee (obviously)
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:34 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
According to Chris Bowers..

Quote:

Update 3: First Exit Poll Estimates: These are bound to change, but the exit polls for the 8 p.m. states are

AL: O 54-41 C

CT: O 53--46 C

DE: O 49-44 C

MA: O 49-48 C

MO: C 47-45 O

NJ: C 49-49 O

OK: C 58--33 O

TN: C 51-40 0

more as I figure them out...


Not too shabby so far...

Cycloptichorn
Shocked NJ 49-49 That's better than not too shabby...
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:35 pm
Delaware for McCain.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 07:36 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
NPR has a comprehensive chart going with all the primaries by state and shows projections and delegate count:

http://www.npr.org/?pageDepth=2

Cool table there on the front page! And they've listed Alabama as called for Obama Smile
0 Replies
 
 

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