Cycloptichorn wrote:Doesn't it have to be? I mean, it showed her 12-15% higher then Obama in something like 7 different states. Contra to many other polls.
Flawed questioning, is what that screams to me.
Yeah, but it's weird, normally the SUSA polls are pretty good. It's just this one set somehow..
...or else this one set is right. (Yes, I'm still fretting up a storm.)
Some good news, though -- evidently Obama has won Jakarta! Jakarta? Yep, American expats there voted for Obama 75% to 25%:
Quote:In Jakarta, where Obama spent part of his youth living and going to school in Menteng, a suburb of decaying colonial grandeur, Democrats handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first result announced, party officials said.
Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hQu1TtWgI7PbLPKagwp7SQztY7Cw
Brand X wrote:Wow, surprising Obama isn't way out front in Ala.
It's race.
The four polls on Alabama that came out in the last two weeks that broke down the numbers by race showed a pretty stark contrast:
Whites
9-29% Obama
51-66% Clinton
Blacks
60-72% Obama
16-30% Clinton
See for similar examples in the South
here
From the Corner, our first leaked exit polls of the night!!
Quote:My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.
Cycloptichorn
Anyone checked on O'Bill's Numbers folks and what the odds are? I have no idea where to even begin looking for that.
Hmm...
Do we trust leaked exit polls?
"Dead heat" in Mass. would be nice.
CNN is reporting that 6 states have "voting irregularities" -- voting machines down, that sort of thing.
Heh, Virginia voters turning out enthusiastically... even though their primary is NEXT Tuesday!
I don't intend to make too many bets, but I do see Missouri going to Obama by 5%. Ny rationale is that Missouri is a relatively diverse state made up of small communities. Even St Louis is made up, as I understand it, is made up of tight-knit communities. I see that playing out well for Obama who also happens to be from a neighboring state.
I saw reference somewhere (an Atlantic blog or Kevin Drum I think) to the numbers people deciding that Obama is more electable in a general election, but not who they think will do better today.
There's a numbers guy! ;-) RJB's been a wiz with predictions thus far.
sozobe wrote:
Heh, Virginia voters turning out enthusiastically... even though their primary is NEXT Tuesday!
We ain't too smart but we are enthusiastic here in VA.
OK, so with Butrflynet's info in hand I tried to explain Anastasia about where Edwards delegates go, cause she was the one asking, and then about superdelegates and about how in California, Independents can vote in the Dem primary but not in the Rep one, and then she asked about the Maine caucuses, and when Ohio votes and why the process lasts for months and that some states are winner-takes-all and others proportional except that proportional can be by district or state-wide or a combination and that any state's system can change from one election to the next like their dates and oh Christ...
She's all, it's like one of those gaming communities where there's a million arcane rules that you have to learn by heart .. its worse than Dungeons & Dragons!
(Friend of hers on chat adds: but at least the D&D rules are consistent..)
Butrflynet wrote:Anyone checked on O'Bill's Numbers folks and what the odds are? I have no idea where to even begin looking for that.
That was updated some time today.. dunno when.
Heh, that's how a lot of us feel about the presidential election process and politics in general.
It's just one example of why our election/political system needs some major reforms.
Heh, totally!
(Ohio votes March 4th though!)
OK, so
right now they have Obama at 52.9, and Hillary at 48.0
->
http://www.intrade.com/
But yeah, I mean, remember New Hampshire - Obama shot up to 70 in the course of the day, only to dump back down to 40 when the results were in.
Sure is looking like a brokered convention ala Chicago 1968 is in our future.
I've had CNN on, haven't been totally watching, just glanced at it, a little "polls close" countdown clock in the corner, it says 39 minutes...
39 minutes!!!!
Holy crap.
I understand that's just the first of them and this is going to go on for quite a while but...
things are about to start happening!
New Mexico (btw you don't really need a visa) is not exactly in the running as a meaningful state for delegates however our polls close at 7 p.m. I would expect results sometime on friday as we have actual written-in ballots. I could be wrong as there are some here who can speak and write in english. Not many I admit but there are some; they have lived here for 300-400 years and some even seek citizenship but usually fail the skin-colour test.
dyslexia wrote:New Mexico: ... there are some here who can speak and write in english. Not many I admit but there are some; they have lived here for 300-400 years and some even seek citizenship but usually fail the skin-colour test.
I think I would fail the still to be alive test at 300-400 years old.
Kerplunkaching.
nimh wrote:
OK, so
right now they have Obama at 52.9, and Hillary at 48.0
->
http://www.intrade.com/
But yeah, I mean, remember New Hampshire - Obama shot up to 70 in the course of the day, only to dump back down to 40 when the results were in.
More interesting is what's happened with California:
That's a complete turn around from just a few days ago!
