17
   

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:24 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Doesn't it have to be? I mean, it showed her 12-15% higher then Obama in something like 7 different states. Contra to many other polls.

Flawed questioning, is what that screams to me.

Yeah, but it's weird, normally the SUSA polls are pretty good. It's just this one set somehow..
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:38 pm
...or else this one set is right. (Yes, I'm still fretting up a storm.)

Some good news, though -- evidently Obama has won Jakarta! Jakarta? Yep, American expats there voted for Obama 75% to 25%:

Quote:
In Jakarta, where Obama spent part of his youth living and going to school in Menteng, a suburb of decaying colonial grandeur, Democrats handed him a win over Hillary Clinton in the first result announced, party officials said.

Seventy-five percent of nearly 100 votes cast by expatriate Americans just past midnight (1700 GMT Monday) went to Obama and 25 percent went to Clinton, Democrats Abroad officials here said.


http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hQu1TtWgI7PbLPKagwp7SQztY7Cw
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:39 pm
Brand X wrote:
Wow, surprising Obama isn't way out front in Ala.


It's race.

The four polls on Alabama that came out in the last two weeks that broke down the numbers by race showed a pretty stark contrast:

Whites
9-29% Obama
51-66% Clinton

Blacks
60-72% Obama
16-30% Clinton

See for similar examples in the South here
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:42 pm
From the Corner, our first leaked exit polls of the night!!

Quote:
My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.


Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:45 pm
Anyone checked on O'Bill's Numbers folks and what the odds are? I have no idea where to even begin looking for that.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:46 pm
Hmm...

Do we trust leaked exit polls?

"Dead heat" in Mass. would be nice.

CNN is reporting that 6 states have "voting irregularities" -- voting machines down, that sort of thing.

Heh, Virginia voters turning out enthusiastically... even though their primary is NEXT Tuesday!
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:47 pm
I don't intend to make too many bets, but I do see Missouri going to Obama by 5%. Ny rationale is that Missouri is a relatively diverse state made up of small communities. Even St Louis is made up, as I understand it, is made up of tight-knit communities. I see that playing out well for Obama who also happens to be from a neighboring state.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:48 pm
I saw reference somewhere (an Atlantic blog or Kevin Drum I think) to the numbers people deciding that Obama is more electable in a general election, but not who they think will do better today.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:49 pm
There's a numbers guy! ;-) RJB's been a wiz with predictions thus far.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:51 pm
sozobe wrote:


Heh, Virginia voters turning out enthusiastically... even though their primary is NEXT Tuesday!


We ain't too smart but we are enthusiastic here in VA.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:52 pm
OK, so with Butrflynet's info in hand I tried to explain Anastasia about where Edwards delegates go, cause she was the one asking, and then about superdelegates and about how in California, Independents can vote in the Dem primary but not in the Rep one, and then she asked about the Maine caucuses, and when Ohio votes and why the process lasts for months and that some states are winner-takes-all and others proportional except that proportional can be by district or state-wide or a combination and that any state's system can change from one election to the next like their dates and oh Christ...

She's all, it's like one of those gaming communities where there's a million arcane rules that you have to learn by heart .. its worse than Dungeons & Dragons!

(Friend of hers on chat adds: but at least the D&D rules are consistent..)
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:58 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Anyone checked on O'Bill's Numbers folks and what the odds are? I have no idea where to even begin looking for that.


http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/250x250/DEM_nom.png

http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/250x250/REP_nom.png

That was updated some time today.. dunno when.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 04:59 pm
Heh, that's how a lot of us feel about the presidential election process and politics in general.

It's just one example of why our election/political system needs some major reforms.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:00 pm
Heh, totally!

(Ohio votes March 4th though!)
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:01 pm
nimh wrote:
http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/250x250/DEM_nom.png


OK, so right now they have Obama at 52.9, and Hillary at 48.0 Razz

-> http://www.intrade.com/

But yeah, I mean, remember New Hampshire - Obama shot up to 70 in the course of the day, only to dump back down to 40 when the results were in.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:06 pm
Sure is looking like a brokered convention ala Chicago 1968 is in our future.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:22 pm
I've had CNN on, haven't been totally watching, just glanced at it, a little "polls close" countdown clock in the corner, it says 39 minutes...

39 minutes!!!!

Holy crap.

I understand that's just the first of them and this is going to go on for quite a while but...

things are about to start happening!
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:28 pm
New Mexico (btw you don't really need a visa) is not exactly in the running as a meaningful state for delegates however our polls close at 7 p.m. I would expect results sometime on friday as we have actual written-in ballots. I could be wrong as there are some here who can speak and write in english. Not many I admit but there are some; they have lived here for 300-400 years and some even seek citizenship but usually fail the skin-colour test.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:39 pm
dyslexia wrote:
New Mexico: ... there are some here who can speak and write in english. Not many I admit but there are some; they have lived here for 300-400 years and some even seek citizenship but usually fail the skin-colour test.


I think I would fail the still to be alive test at 300-400 years old.
Kerplunkaching.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 5 Feb, 2008 05:43 pm
nimh wrote:
nimh wrote:
http://www.intrade.com/images/generated/intrade/250x250/DEM_nom.png


OK, so right now they have Obama at 52.9, and Hillary at 48.0 Razz

-> http://www.intrade.com/

But yeah, I mean, remember New Hampshire - Obama shot up to 70 in the course of the day, only to dump back down to 40 when the results were in.
More interesting is what's happened with California:

http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/6061/carf0.jpg

That's a complete turn around from just a few days ago!
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

 
Copyright © 2025 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.05 seconds on 07/10/2025 at 03:14:47