Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Romney screwed in CA?

I cant find back where, but earlier on I noted already that the California system, which awards an equal number of delegates to every district, is likely to disadvantage Romney.

It does, but I hadnt quite grasped how seriously the system screws Mitt:

Quote:

To fully understand the perversity of this system, realize that some California congressional districts have almost no Republican voters. Diane Watson's (D) 33rd District cast only about 30,000 votes for George W. Bush in 2004; compare that to a strongly Republican district, Wally Herger's (R) 2nd, which gave Bush 169,000 votes. Each Republican in the 33rd District will have nearly six times' stronger a voice in this primary than a 2nd District Republican. ...

Let's say Mitt Romney wins every district with a Republican congressman and John McCain wins every district with a Democratic congressman. Romney will win the statewide vote, because those Republican districts will cast many more primary ballots than the Democratic ones. He'll take home 19 x 3 + 11 = 68 delegates. But John McCain will take 34 x 3 = 102 delegates.

Of course, it's a big assumption that the wins will break down this way. However, after we classify the state's congressional districts by likely winner, I reach essentially the same conclusion.

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Interesting...

FYI, my internet connection is totally crappy today. It's been disconnecting every few minutes and then is molasses when it's there. Probably because of the rain. At any rate it only seems to be getting worse plus it's frustrating so I probably won't be around much today. And especially, it might go from frustrating to hopeless (that's happened before) where I can't get a connection at all. So wanted to say something in case I'm inexplicably absent. ("Obama won New York!!!!! Where's soz??" ;-))

At least I'll have TV if no internet tho!

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ALABAMA - REPUBLICANS

Alabama is the smallest state for which there have already been 10 polls this month, and it's easy to see why. Not just are Obama and Hillary battling over who gets the narrow lead that will probably decide the Democratic primary here, but it's no less tight in the Republican primary.

Early this month, it was Huckabee who had the lead here, close to his home turf. But he was stuck at a quarter to a third of the vote, and was soon overtaken by McCain when "Mac" started surging.

But has McCain reached a plateau too, in these final days? All the polls in the last week have him around 40%, with if anything a slight drop-off in the final days, though that could just be statistical noise - he lost 3 points in the SUSA poll of 2/2-3 compared to the one of 1/31. And now it's Huckabee who is catching up.

At about a quarter of the vote two weeks ago, Huckabee has now gone back up to over a third of the vote in two of the most recent polls, picking up 5 points in three days in the last Survey USA poll. Both that one and a new InsiderAdvantage poll now have him at just two points from McCain:

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/1488/alpollsrzy8.png

The crosstabs according to Survey USA: "Among Conservatives, Huckabee leads by 7. Among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee leads by 10. Among voters under age 50, Huckabee leads by 9. But: among Moderates, McCain leads by 37 points. Among voters age 50+, McCain leads by 11. In Southern Alabama, McCain had led by 18, now by 8. In Northern AL, the two have do-si-doed, but remain effectively tied."

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sozobe wrote:

FYI, my internet connection is totally crappy today. It's been disconnecting every few minutes and then is molasses when it's there. Probably because of the rain. At any rate it only seems to be getting worse plus it's frustrating so I probably won't be around much today. And especially, it might go from frustrating to hopeless (that's happened before) where I can't get a connection at all.

Oh no!!

We cant do without you here, Soz. Go call someone to come fix it :wink:

No, seriously, that sucks...

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ARIZONA - REPUBLICANS

Just one recent poll out, from Rasmussen, conducted on 1/31.

It has McCain at 43%, which is comparable to where he was in two polls done a week or two previously. But it has Romney catching up quickly, at 34% - compared to around 20% in the previous polls.

I dont see McCain losing in his own state, but with support from the local anti-immigration activists Romney is getting a bigger chunk than could be comfortable. Rasmussen comments:

Among conservatives in his home state, McCain trails 44% to 36%. However, he holds a forty-three point lead among political moderates in the state. McCain leads among voters who consider the economy and the War in Iraq as the top issue. However, among voters who see immigration as the highest priority, Romney leads 47% to 31%.
OKLAHOMA - REPUBLICANS

Oklahoma is perhaps close to Alabama than Arizona, politically: here it is Huckabee again who is John McCain's main challenger. In polls from December and mid-January, Huckabee was the frontrunner here, but he has since fallen back; the only questions are, by how much, and is he clawing back some at the last moment?

A Jan. 27-30 SoonerPoll by local Tulsa World and KOTV has the gap between the two in imposing double digits: 40% for McCain, 19% for Huckabee. This is quite the revert from the December SoonerPoll, when Huck led 29 to 17. Moreover, Tulsa World comments:

For Huckabee, a Baptist preacher, the bad news was that even evangelical Christians were more likely to support McCain. Only the most ardently religious -- those who attend services several times a week -- favored Huckabee.But Survey USA dissents. On Jan. 27, it had Huckabee at 9 points from McCain, 28% to 37%. On Feb. 2-3, it had Huckabee picking up 4 points and the gap closing to 5: 32% to 37%.

And to complicate matters, both polls also have Romney gaining some ground and now hovering around 20%.

Regarding the crosstabs, both polls have the state divided along political/geographical lines. From Tulsa World:

McCain was significantly weaker in the Tulsa metropolitan area than in Oklahoma City and the rest of the state, drawing just 29 percent here compared to the mid-40s everywhere else. Huckabee was at 26 percent in Tulsa, about his December level, while Romney jumped from 11 to 22 percent.From Survey USA:

In Eastern OK, McCain and Huckabee are tied. In Western OK, McCain leads by 8. Among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee leads by 12. Among Conservative voters, Huckabee leads by 8. Among those who attend religious services regularly, Huckabee leads by 6. But: Among Moderates, McCain leads by 31 points. Among Pro-Choice voters McCain leads Romney by 41 points.
UTAH - REPUBLICANS

The Deseret Morning News starts off its write-up of a first poll in three months in the state with a hearty, "All hail Mitt Romney".

"The current GOP Mormon and former Salt Lake Winter Olympic boss on Tuesday could well win the largest victory ever in a major Utah election," in the Republican primary, it comments, after a poll it commissioned with KSL-TV, conducted Jan. 30-Feb. 1, showed Romney with no less than 84% of the vote.

McCain came in second - with 4%...

"Utah Republicans stand by their man," the report continues: "Eighty-nine percent of Republican Mormon Utahns favor Romney [..]. And 53 percent of Utah Republicans believe that Romney will ultimately be their party's presidential nominee, regardless of McCain's current lead."

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In Alabama, it's Huckabee vs McCain. But elsewhere in the South, the Republican primary is very much a three-way race. Which makes for great volatility and unpredictability.

GEORGIA - REPUBLICANS

There wasnt a lot of polling of this race until the very last week of the race. In the graph below, it's only the first three bars that represent the developments before.

A Strategic Vision poll in December had Huckabee in the lead, with Giuliani in third place and in between them (not on the chart), Fred Thompson. Come mid-January and Huckabee has a clear lead over McCain and Romney in a Mason-Dixon poll, and two weeks before the elections Rasmussen confirmed that picture.

Then came the last two weeks of campaigning, and the whole picture changed. By Jan. 30, when polls finally started rolling in, Huck had lost his lead and trailed McCain by 7-15 points, with Romney in between. McCain benefited from the endorsement of Georgia's two US Senators.

But the race has tightened up again over the course of the past week. PPP saw Romney lose a few points and Huckabee win a couple, while InsiderAdvantage saw McCain losing some ground, Romney picking up 7 points and Huckabee winning a couple too.

None of the four pollsters that have conducted polls entirely within the last five days, has anything over 6 points between any of the three contenders. Though the ranking is usually 1) McCain, 2) Romney and 3) Huckabee, it's very tight. "The race remains amazingly fluid just days before voters go to the polls," writes Rasmussen: "Twelve percent of Georgia's Likely Republican Primary Voters say there's a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Another 22% say they might change their mind."

http://img61.imageshack.us/img61/7675/gapollsrfm1.png

The volatility is aided by the fact that voters view the candidates as equally favourable - and by how lukewarm that judgement is: "Romney is viewed favorably by 69% of the state's voters, Huckabee by 68%, and McCain by 66%."

Plus, both conservatives and Evangelicals have roughly equally divided loyalties. "Huckabee continues to lead among the state's Evangelical Christian voters, but by a smaller margin than earlier in the year. The former Baptist Preacher attracts 34% of the Evangelical Vote in Georgia while McCain picks up 28% and Romney 26%. Romney wins 34% of the conservative vote, Huckabee 31%, and McCain 24%."

There's two groups that have a more pronounced preference: moderates go for McCain, and those focused on immigration for Romney: "Among the smaller number of politically moderate voters, it's McCain 41%, Huckabee 21%, and Romney 20%. Eighteen percent (18%) say immigration is the highest priority. McCain really struggles among those who are focused on immigration. Romney gets 40% of the immigration voters, Huckabee 37%, and McCain 18%."

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the crosstabs of the PPP poll suggest that Romney does better among men. Like many polls in many states, it also shows Huckabee doing well among the young, and McCain among the old. While McCain scores among those who think the war in Iraq, education or health care is the most pressing issue, Huckabee does well among those citing "moral and family values", and in the PPP poll it's immigration that's the big winner for Romney.

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TENNESSEE - REPUBLICANS

In a previous update just last Sunday, I called this race "something of a crap shoot," as McCain was leading Huckabee with a stable 8-9 points, but different polls had Romney at 3% and 15% behind him.

With two new polls in conducted on Feb. 2, it's slightly less of a crap shoot, as Romney fades into third place (with 22% in both polls). It's Huckabee vs McCain here, and while McCain has the edge, Huckabee has been closing in somewhat, much like in Alabama, in the last few days.

InsiderAdvantage has McCain at 32% and Huckabee at 30%, making for a statistical tie. PPP has the gap somewhat larger with 34% for McCain and 28% for Huckabee.

http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/1032/tnpollsrjo7.png

PPP has Romney doing better among men, McCain among women, Huckabee leading among voters aged up till 45, while McCain leads among those over 45. McCain rules among those citing the war in Iraq, the economy and jobs, or education as main concern; Huckabee gets the moral and family values voters, and Romney rules on immigration.

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This thread needs lightening up a little.

Thorstein Veblen, undoubtedly one of America's foremost intellectuals, wrote, regarding predatory cultures-

Quote:

In such a community the standards of merit and propriety rest
on an invidious distinction between those who are capable
fighters and those who are not. Infirmity, that is to say
incapacity for exploit, is looked down upon. One of the early
consequences of this deprecation of infirmity is a tabu on women
and on women's employments. In the apprehension of the archaic,
animistic barbarian, infirmity is infectious. The infection may
work its mischievous effect both by sympathetic influence and by
transfusion. Therefore it is well for the able-bodied man who is
mindful of his virility to shun all undue contact and
conversation with the weaker sex and to avoid all contamination
with the employments that are characteristic of the sex. Even the
habitual food of women should not be eaten by men, lest their
force be thereby impaired. The injunction against womanly
employments and foods and against intercourse with women applies
with especial rigor during the season of preparation for any work
of manly exploit, such as a great hunt or a warlike raid, or
induction into some manly dignity or society or mystery.
Illustrations of this seasonal tabu abound in the early history
of all peoples that have had a warlike or barbarian past. The
women, their occupations, their food and clothing, their habitual
place in the house or village, and in extreme cases even their
speech, become ceremonially unclean to the men. This imputation
of ceremonial uncleanness on the ground of their infirmity has
lasted on in the later culture as a sense of the unworthiness or
levitical inadequacy of women; so that even now we feel the
impropriety of women taking rank with men, or representing the
community in any relation that calls for dignity and ritual
competency,. as for instance, in priestly or diplomatic offices,
or even in representative civil offices, and likewise, and for a
like reason, in such offices of domestic and body servants as are
of a seriously ceremonial character - footmen, butlers, etc.

Hi girls!!

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MISSOURI - REPUBLICANS

In Missouri, polling from before the last week is as rare as in Tennessee. But two polls from Jan. 24 together showed a picture of McCain edging out Huckabee narrowly, and Romney substantively behind.

What has happened since, according to the spate of polls that has been conducted between Jan. 30 and Feb. 3? With Rudy out of the race and the number of undecideds shrinking, all three frontrunners have picked up some points, but it's Romney who's made the most advances, followed by McCain.

The net result is good news for McCain. As his two main rivals start splitting the votes that he cant get more and more evenly among them, his lead increases.

Nevertheless, nothing is decided. The ranking these past days has consistently been 1) McCain 2) Huckabee 3) Romney, but the last SUSA poll has McCain leading Huck by just 2 and Romney by 5; nothing is decided yet.

http://img104.imageshack.us/img104/7162/mopollsrrw9.png

Regional differences

Zogby writes: "Much of Huckabee's support came from the conservative southwestern part of the state, where he got 41% support, compared to McCain's 28% and Romney's 19% support. McCain dominated in St. Louis, where he had 40% support to Huckabee's 10% and Romney's 25% support."

Survey USA writes: "In the Ozarks, Huckabee, from neighboring Arkansas, leads Romney by 25 points. [..] But: In greater St. Louis, McCain leads Romney by 16 and Huckabee by 19. In Kansas City, McCain leads Romney by 11 and Huckabee by 14."

Demographic and ideological differences

Mason-Dixon has Romney doing much better among men (29%) than women (19%). Survey USA has Huckabee doing better among the young (47%) than the old (23%), and McCain doing better among the old (40%) than the young (23%).

Survey USA writes: "Among Pro-Life voters, Huckabee leads Romney by 12. Among those who attend religious services regularly, Huckabee leads by 8."

"Among Moderates, McCain leads both challengers by 39 points. Among Conservatives, McCain and Romney effectively tie, 8 to 10 points ahead of McCain."

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Just for you, nimh. Passing along info that was given to me.

Here are links to Super Tuesday Official election results sites for each state:

Alabama primary Open http://www.sos.state.al.us/Elections/Default.aspx

Alaska caucus http://www.elections.state.ak.us/returns.php

American Samoa primary

Arizona primary Closed http://www.azsos.gov/results/2008/ppe/DEM-100.htm

Arkansas primary Open http://www.arelections.org/index.php?ac:show:contest_st...

California primary Semi-open http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_elections.htm

Colorado caucus http://www.elections.colorado.gov/DDefault.aspx ?

Connecticut primary Closed http://www.sots.ct.gov/ElectionsServices/election_resul...

Delaware primary Closed http://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/unofresl.sht...

Democrats Abroad primary

Georgia primary Open http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_...

Idaho caucus Open http://www.idsos.state.id.us/elect/eleindex.htm

Illinois primary Semi-open http://www.elections.il.gov /

Kansas caucus Open http://www.kssos.org/ent/kssos_ent.html

Massachusetts primary Open http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/eleidx.htm

Minnesota caucus Open http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us /

Missouri primary Open http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb /

New Jersey primary Semi-open http://www.nj.gov/oag/elections/njresults.html

New Mexico caucus http://www.sos.state.nm.us/displayContent.asp?id=17

New York primary Closed http://www.elections.state.ny.us/portal/page?_pageid=35...

North Dakota caucus Semi-open http://web.apps.state.nd.us/sec/emspublic/gp/electionre...

Oklahoma primary Closed http://www.ok.gov/~elections/08ppp.html

Tennessee primary Open http://www.state.tn.us/sos/election/index.htm

Utah primary Closed http://elections.utah.gov/electionresults.html

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Cool!

I don't really get the "closed"s and "semi-opens" and stuff. As in, voting has been closed already?

(Stopped raining, connection is marginally better but not much.) (Thanks for the nice comment nimh! Hope I can stick around for when things start getting interesting...)

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sozobe wrote:

Cool!

I don't really get the "closed"s and "semi-opens" and stuff. As in, voting has been closed already?

(Stopped raining, connection is marginally better but not much.) (Thanks for the nice comment nimh! Hope I can stick around for when things start getting interesting...)

CA is semi-open b/c Independents can vote Dem, but not Republican.

Cycloptichorn

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Of course, should have figured that out. Thanks.

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No worries!

Clinton campaign is demanding one debate a week between now and March - and they've already accepted one on Fox news. Does that sound like a front-runner's tactic to you?

My guess is that the Clinton's internal polls for the rest of February don't look good at all, and they are hoping that the debates will provide a better contrast between her and Obama.

Obama should refuse all the debates and tell her to piss off. And hit her hard for suggesting the Fox News one.

Cycloptichorn

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Butrflynet wrote:

Just for you, nimh. Passing along info that was given to me.

Here are links to Super Tuesday Official election results sites for each state

Thank you very much! Smile

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ALABAMA + GEORGIA - REPUBLICANS

InsiderAdvantage signals a last-minute Huckabee surge

Write-up:

"Mike Huckabee is making a furious charge in some Deep South states, and his efforts are showing up late in our polls. [..] Our Monday InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research polls show Huckabee pulling even with John McCain in Georgia, and surging into the lead in Alabama."FWIW, the numbers are indeed striking. Look at these jiu-jutsi moves in Alabama: Romney is picking off McCain votes - helping Huckabee to win! Shocked

What a mess :-D

ALABAMA
InsiderAdvantage

2/4, compared with 1/31:

38% (+3) Huckabee
29% (-8) McCain
20% (+6) Romney

Nothing as complicated in Georgia, just a straightforward last-day Huckabee surge:

GEORGIA

InsiderAdvantage

2/4, compared with 2/3, and 1/31:

32% (/0) (-3) McCain
32% (+6) (+8) Huckabee
29% (-2) (+5) Romney

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DAILY TRACKING POLLS

On the Democratic side:

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/300/galluprasmusdems4es5.png

http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/9281/galluprasmusdemslead4xb9.png

Gallup comments: "Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remain fairly closely matched in national Democratic voters' nomination preferences, although Clinton appears to have stopped Obama's momentum over the past two days."

Looking at both tracking polls, it seems like the movement basically stagnated five days ago, and we're back now where we were back then. Back then we were looking at tracking polls over Jan. 28-30 (Gallup) or Jan. 27-30 (Rasmussen).

So perhaps the double item of the Florida primaries (Jan. 29) and the debate (Jan. 31?) were enough to at least stem the flow. From then on Hillary and Obama have been going up in parallel, both picking up about 4 more percentage points as the number of undecideds dwindled. (Which also suggests that Edwards voters actually might have split up pretty evenly between the two.)

There's a warning sign in the Gallup write-up still as well though: "Clinton has led Obama in Gallup's daily interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday. This suggests that her position may be stronger in Super Tuesday voting than some have anticipated given Obama's rapid closing of the 20-percentage point gap with Clinton that existed two weeks ago."

Considering that a lot of states are close, any shift towards one or the other candidate of just two or three percentage points could make a disproportional difference in the number of states each wins - and thus the media narrative of "who won".

On the Republican side:

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/020508DailyUpdateGraph1.gif

McCain is still the run-away frontrunner, a position he cemented between Jan. 29, the day of the Florida primary, and Feb. 1. But there's some signs of an unexpected Huckabee comeback in the last few days, complicating Romney's war plan no end. Huck went up 5 points in 3 days, the kind of gains he hadnt seen in weeks. Rasmussen doesnt see it tho.

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By heck-- you people seem very knowledgeable.

I presume you all have your money on because it's the first rule of betting that if you know what's going on you get your money on before you tell anybody else because if you do and they get their money on before you do their money will have reduced the odds and, if you really are a very knowledgeable person with a proven track record for political nonce, by a significant amount and thus you would be getting your money on at the lowest odds which would prove, in Darwinian terms, that you are a selected out dead duck.

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nimh wrote:

Considering that a lot of states are close, any shift towards one or the other candidate of just two or three percentage points could make a disproportional difference in the number of states each wins - and thus the media narrative of "who won".

Eek.

I'm definitely concerned.

I'm watching stuff about West Virginia on CNN, interesting. It's a convention, not a primary or a caucus. All 18 delegates go to Huckabee. (!) First round, Romney was ahead, then Huckabee not far behind, then McCain a distant third. Evidently McCain called his supporters and told them to go for Huckabee in the next round, just to stymie Romney. It worked. (Huckabee by 52%, Romney by 47%, McCain by 1% (!) -- and winner takes all.)

Further details here:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/?scp=1-spot&sq=caucus&st=nyt

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Cool!

On the one hand I'm hoping Huckabee will have a good night.. for one, because I am kind of rooting for those evangelical conservatives, who have basically been used as footsoldiers for decades by the Republican party while the country-club and neocon cliques decide policy, to be heard loudly saying, "f*ck that!". Just as an underdog kinda thing. And also because a three-man fight is more interesting than a two-man one.

On the other hand, Huckabee is splitting the conservative vote, and making it all but impossible for Romney to still stop the McCain express. And I'd take Romney over McCain as Republican opponent any day.

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