Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

And even after tomorrow.......you still have the super-delegates to deal with.

sozobe wrote:

That little birdie so got my hopes up re: an Edwards endorsement!!!

Hope he's right about this though.

I do remember Kos changing his mind (he'd been planning to vote for Hillary) and doing his CA absentee vote for Obama in like mid-January.

Different Birdie!!!!

From California Progress Report:

Quote:

Cycloptichorn

CALIFORNIA, VOTING MACHINES & SUPER TUESDAY...California is the treasure trove of delegates--441--and with proportional allocation, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama should pick up large numbers. But with 1 to 2 million absentee ballots, we may not know the final results until Wednesday morning.

According to the California State Association of Counties (CSAC), the delay is connected to Secretary of State Debra Bowen's decertification of many counties' electronic voting systems just six months ago. Like her pro-democracy colleagues--Minnesota's Secretary of State Mark Ritchie and Ohio's Jennifer Brunner--Bowen wants hackable and unreliable Diebold machines out of the voting process. Instead, she supports switching from touch screen to optical scan machines which provide a voter-verified paper trail.

One result of kicking Diebold out: election officials have been scrambling to change election day procedures for counting votes. Reports suggest that even with the sizeable number of additional volunteers who will work in precints throughout the state, the process will take significantly longer this year.

It may be a long night.

On TNR, also reviews the post-Super Tuesday schedule and concludes it's good news for Obama; but he adds the caveat that

"If Obama wins 45 percent of Tuesday's delegates, he'll be facing about a 200-delegate deficit. He probably needs to keep it closer to 100, which would mean winning about 47.5 percent of delegates."

-----------------------------------------------------
February 4, 2008
To: Interested Parties
From: David Plouffe
RE: Putting Tomorrow into Perspective

Two weeks ago, a Clinton campaign adviser told CBS News that they believed they could ?wrap up? the nomination on February 5th. As the ?inevitable? national frontrunner, tomorrow should be the day when she sews up the nomination or builds a formidable delegate lead. But because of Obama?s growing momentum across the country, the Clinton campaign is now unlikely to reach their stated goals of wrapping up the nomination tomorrow.

Senator Clinton is certainly the favorite on February 5, given the huge leads she has held in many of these contests throughout the course of the campaign and the political, historical and geographic advantages she enjoys in many of these states.

For example, California, which Clinton led by 25 points in October and 12 points two weeks ago, was once seen as the Clinton campaign?s firewall and where they planned to run up an insurmountable lead in delegates. Former Governor Gray Davis, a Clinton supporter, said on MSNBC last week, ?I am pleased to be for Hillary Clinton and I expect her to do very well in Super Tuesday. I expect her to win California by a sizable amount, at least double digits, do well in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut.?

Based on her huge head start, Hillary Clinton should still win California, but is unlikely to achieve her goal of getting a sizeable share of the delegates.

Our path to the nomination never factored in a big day for us on February 5. Rather, we always planned to stay close enough in the delegate count so that we could proceed to individually focus on the states in the next set of contests.

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

A performance that exceeds those benchmarks, while unlikely, would put is in a surprisingly strong position heading into the rest of the February contests.

While the Clinton campaign is furiously trying to spin the expectations game, it is important to look at where they were in some of the key states just a few weeks ago.

ALABAMA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Alabama By 15 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 15 points, 43% to 28%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

ARIZONA
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Arizona Obama By 21 Points. According to a poll done for the Arizona Republic that was released on January 23, Clinton led Obama 45% to 24%. [Arizona Republic, 1/23/08]

CONNECTICUT
Hartford Courant: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Connecticut By 14 Points. According to polling done for the Hartford Courant released on January 20, Clinton led Obama by 14 points, 41% to 27%. [Hartford Courant, 1/20/08]

DELAWARE
October 2007 Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 24 Points. According to polling done by Farleigh Dickinson that was released on October 10, Clinton led Obama by 24 points, 41% to 17%. [Fairleigh Dickinson, 10/10/07]

GEORGIA
In December 2007, Clinton Led Georgia By 7 Points. According to polling done by Strategic Vision released on December 12, Clinton led Obama by 7 points, 34% to 27%. [Strategic Vision, 1/22/07]

MASSACHUSETTS
Survey USA: Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Massachusetts By 37 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 24, Clinton led Obama by 37 points, 59% to 22%. [Survey USA, 1/24/08]

MINNESOTA
October Poll Found Clinton Leading Obama By 25 Points In Minnesota. According to polling done by Mason Dixon released on October 2, Clinton led Obama 47%-33%. [Star Tribune, 10/2/07]

MISSOURI
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Missouri By 19 Points. According to polling done by Rasmussen released on January 25, Clinton led Obama by 19 points, 43% to 24%. [Rasmussen, 1/25/08]

NEW YORK
Before February 5th, Clinton Led New York By 28 Points. According to polling done by USA Today and Gallup released on January 28, Clinton led Obama by 28 points, 56% to 28%. [Gallup, 1/28/08]

NEW JERSEY
Less Than Two Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led New Jersey By 17 Points. According to polling done by Quinnipiac released on January 22, Clinton led Obama by 17 points, 49% to 32%. [Quinnipiac, 1/23/08]

OKLAHOMA
Three Weeks Before February 5th, Clinton Led Oklahoma By 20 Points. According to polling done by Survey USA released on January 14, Clinton led Obama by 20 points, 45% to 25%. [Survey USA, 1/14/08]

TENNESSEE
Less Than One Week Before February 5th, Clinton Led Tennessee By 33 Points. According to polling done by Insider Advantage in Tennessee on January 30th, Clinton led Obama by 33 points, 59% to 26%. [Insider Advantage, 1/30/08]

OK, I found what I was looking for before, which is what the Field Poll estimates will be the percentage of mail ballots vs. precinct voting. It's 43% mail ballots, 57% precinct voting. (Bottom of page 4, here):

http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2264.pdf

And then also what Cycloptichorn already said -- that of people who have mailed in their ballots, they went 32% for Obama, 31% for Hillary, and 20% for Edwards... with 17% "undecided." (Hmm?)

If I had the willpower I'd just tune out until sometime Wednesday afternoon and then find out what happened...

I see... the Field people think that more people will send in their ballots after the poll was taken. (Is that even possible? Isn't there a cut-off for postmarks or something, to make sure it gets in on time?)

Polls are open from 7:00 a.m. to at least 8:00 p.m. Anyone in line at the time the polls close is allowed to vote.

Voters have the right to cast a provisional ballot even if their name is not listed on the voting rolls. If a voter is at the wrong polling location and has time to get to the correct polling location before polls close at 8:00 p.m., they should go to the correct one and vote with a regular ballot instead of voting with a provisional ballot at the wrong location.

If you declined to select a political party when you registered to vote, you can still vote for Barack Obama if you request a Democratic ballot from the poll worker. Make sure you mark "Democratic" in the appropriate space or the vote might not be counted.

Voters have the right to return their completed vote-by-mail ballot to any precinct in their county.

The poll found that independent voters have become more uncomfortable with the idea [of Bill back in the White House]. In October, just 35 percent of independents disliked the idea; now, 45 percent dislike it.

In a general election, however, the prospect of Mr. Clinton back in the White House would be a bigger burden for her to carry. Republicans never liked the idea. In October, 66 percent said they disliked it; now 80 percent dislike it.

nimh wrote:

"If Obama wins 45 percent of Tuesday's delegates, he'll be facing about a 200-delegate deficit. He probably needs to keep it closer to 100, which would mean winning about 47.5 percent of delegates."

IF - and this is a big if - the poll averages today accurately predict Obama's and Hillary's totals, then Obama currently has more delegates then Hillary tomorrow.

IF the polls are off by as much as +2 hillary/ -2 Obama, he will still only be down by about 45. [..]

We fully expect Senator Clinton to earn more delegates on February 5th and also to win more states. If we were to be within 100 delegates on that day and win a number of states, we will have met our threshold for success and will be best positioned to win the nomination in the coming months.

So, unless the Obama campaign has dreadfully wrong internal polls or is just incredibly stupid (the former more plausible than the latter), look for him to finish well within 100 delegates of Hillary tomorrow. Otherwise, even by Obama's own terms, he will have lost Super Tuesday.

That's interesting to me.. that the absentee vote is purported to be that high. Guess I'm an old fashioned walk over there and vote person, though I understand mailing especially if one has hardship.

On getting to vote again having voted for Edwards, I see the angst, but don't think they get to do it again.

(I'm a Debra Bowen fan, so I don't mind if California takes a while to count.)

For one thing, Barack Obama has gained millions of supporters across the country since Iowa, while Hillary Clinton has largely kept her support base in tact. [..]

CNN found that Democrats believe that Hillary Clinton would be better at handling the economy and health care problems than Obama, though both would equally as adept handling illegal immigration. A majority of Democrats believe Obama would better handle Iraq than Clinton.

The poll finds no difference among blacks and whites when asked whether Clinton understands the problems of African Americans -- 75% say yes -- but 46% of black Democrats, compared to 35% of white Democrats believe her campaign brought up race in an offensive manner.

By the way: 79% of Democrats would be very or somewhat satisfied if Clinton won the nomination, and 85% would be very to somewhat satisfied if Obama won the nomination. Among Republicans, 71% would be very to somewhat satisfied if McCain won the nomination (take that Rush!), while 62% would be very to somewhat satisfied if Romney prevailed.

A Friendly Rivalry

Here's an important observation from Mark Kleiman:

Here's a cheerful finding from the Pew poll: neither Obama's unfavorables among Clinton voters (now 30%) nor Clinton's unfavorables among Obama voters (now 31%) have been rising noticeably . So it looks as if (so far) the bitterness of the battle is largely restricted to the political junkies who read and write blogs.

This jibes with my experience of talking to not-so-political folks. It also, I think, explains a lot of the volatility in the race. You have a large number of people who like both candidates and, as a consequence, can very easily be swayed from one to the other by relatively minor turns of events.