GEORGIA - DEMOCRATS
A new
Rasmussen poll in Georgia (conducted 2/2) pretty much agrees with PPP and InsiderAdvantage polls conducted last Wednesday: in all three, Obama is at 51-52%, and Rasmussen puts Hillary at 37%, compared with 36% in the IA poll and 41% in the PPP poll.
A
Mason-Dixon poll conducted 1/30-2/2 disagrees somewhat. It, too, puts Obama in the lead, but at 47% it has Obama's numbers 4-5 points lower than the three other polls do, and at 41%, it has Hillary's numbers where PPP has them too, but 4-5 points higher than what either IA and Rasmussen are saying. Still, all those polls are roughly in the same ballpark.
It's different with two successive editions of a Zogby daily tracking poll on behalf of Reuters and C-Span (conducted 1/31-2/2 and 2/1-3). Both have Obama at 48%, but Hillary's numbers cratering at a mere 28% and 31%, respectively, with a huge number of undecideds (24% and 21%). And this take is echoed in a Strategic Vision poll conducted 2/1-3, which has Obama at 49% and Hillary at a mere 27%, with a huge 24% undecided.
All in all, we are looking at an Obama lead at 6% (Mason-Dixon), 10% (PPP), 15-17% (Rasmussen, Insider Advantage, and the last Zogby poll), or 20-22% (Strategic Vision and the first Zogby poll).
The role of race in the race
This is also where race comes in. Obama continues to do relatively better among whites in Georgia than in Tennessee or Alabama, getting 31% of them in the Mason-Dxon poll (vs 54% for Hillary) and 30% in the Zogby poll (against 43% for Clinton). Meanwhile, he gets 68% of blacks in the Mason-Dixon poll (vs 23% for Clinton), and 67% in the Zogby poll (vs 18% for Clinton).
But the race question raises, perhaps for one last time, the notorious Bradley/Wilder effect - at least for those Zogby and Strategic Vision polls. Note that the Bradley/Wilder effect is not about overstating the support for the black candidate, but about understating the support for the white candidate. Note that the Zogby and SV polls are in line with the others on the level of Obama's support, but have Hillary close to 10 points lower than the other polls. And note that Zogby's numbers about the voting preferences among
blacks line up neatly with those of other polls, but that it has Hillary's support among
whites some 10 points lower than the other polls. I have no idea why only one or two pollsters out of several would encounter a Bradley/Wilder effect, but if Hillary gets over 35% tomorrow, Zogby might want to look into this.
Obama might lead, but Hillary is deemed equally likeable and electable
Other crosstabs are interesting too. Again, in contrast to the mood on forums and blogs, the rank and file Democratic primary voters in Georgia equally like Obama and Hillary, and see no difference between them when it comes to electability, according to the Rasmussen poll. The catch: while Hillary's favourable ratings are equal across constituencies at 78%, Obama's favourables are up at 96% among blacks and down at 66% among whites:
"Obama is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Primary Voters while Clinton earns favorably reviews from 77%. Among African-American voters, Obama is viewed favorably by 96%, Clinton by 78%. Among White Voters, Clinton is viewed favorably by 78%, Obama by 66%."
"Seventy-seven percent (77%) believe Obama is at least somewhat likely to win the election if nominated. Seventy-six percent (76%) say the same about Clinton."
In the Mason-Dixon poll, Clinton and Obama both have unfavourable ratings of 16-17% among likely Democratic primary voters, but Obama's favourable rating is somewhat higher: 66% vs 60%.
A modest gender gap; instead, it's location and priorities that count
According to Mason-Dixon, Obama leads among men by 12, among women by 2; Zogby, too, says Obama leads among women here (and by a lot, too). A relatively modest gender gap here, then, but that is in line with other states with significant black populations (there isnt much of a gender gap among African-American primary voters).
The Mason-Dixon poll also shows Obama leading by 22 among those aged 49 and younger, but trailing by 5 among those aged 50 and older; leading by just 1 among self-defined Democrats but by 22 among others; leading by 15 in the Atlanta metropolitan area, but trailing by 5 in rural Georgia.
Obama leads among those citing Iraq as prime concern by a whopping 32, but trails among those listing health care by 10; and the latter make up a quarter of the voters while the former constitute just a tenth. Obama romps home among those primarily seeking a candidate who "represents change and a new approach" (by 73% to 14%) and who "is honest and trustworthy" (by 61% to 24%), but trails not just among those seeking someone with "the right experience" (by 6% to 79%) but also those who want a candidate who "cares about the issues I care about" (by 31% to 54%).
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