Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

No f*ckin crocodile tears this time. Still can't believe that people fell for that stupid ****. That's why Clinton won in NH.

I haven't seen anyone predicting an Obama win in CA. Nobody. So I have a hard time seeing how it would be seen as a letdown. Everywhere I go, I read about the early voting and how it will give Clinton an edge. So it's difficult to see how a massive Obama push won't be seen as anything other then overcoming that edge.

Cycloptichorn

[shakes head]

Shrug. You're kidding yourself if you think anything else.

Cycloptichorn

Reuters:



BIG MO

Cycloptichorn

The Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls are in disagreement about the Democratic race:

My internet connection at home has gone wonky - I sure hope it'll work on Tuesday night.

Yesterday, in any case, it was out all day -- Sat night it was off a few hours, on a few hours. This morning it worked.

Anyhow, thats why no updates yesterday. I was making new country updates, but couldnt complete or post 'em.

I'll be posting a bunch of 'em after all today, but it may be that by now I'm duplicating some of the info you already posted - apologies beforehand.

Sure hope so!

I still don't know what I'm going to do Tuesday. Iowa was all over much earlier than I expected, but Tuesday is going to be a bunch of Western states. (As in, much earlier time zones.) I can't imagine turning things off before I Know What Happened, but I also can't stay up too late. Maybe I'll put sozlet to bed and sneak back down...



Looking forward to seeing it...

OKLAHOMA - DEMOCRATS

A new SoonerPoll in Oklahoma, conducted on Jan. 27-30 (so mostly before Edwards withdrew) reiterates the results from two Survey USA polls held previously this month. Compared to the SoonerPoll from mid-December, "the percentage planning to vote for Clinton increased from 34 to 41 percent. Former North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards, who suspended his campaign on the last day of polling, remained steady in the mid-20s, while U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois improved slightly, to 17 percent from just under 15."

Hillary's commandeering lead is in line with the numbers in the Survey USA polls, just like the scores for Edwards and Obama are within three points of their rating in the SurveyUSA polls. "What happens to Obama is largely dependent on where Edwards' votes go."

In the article, there's one of those Edwards Democrats who would opt for McCain over Hillary or Obama:

"At least one of those Edwards supporters said he probably will stay home on Tuesday. "I think I may save my vote until the general election," said Sam Henry of Bixby. "The Democrats aren't going to have anyone I want to vote for." "Henry said McCain now is his first choice."

Otherwise known as "tomorrow." <gulp>

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/cnn_poll_obama_leads_hillary_n.php

MISSOURI - DEMOCRATS

A Mason-Dixon poll conducted on Jan. 30-Feb. 1 is mostly in line with concurrent ones done by Survey USA and Rasmussen, and shows a different picture than that of a concurrent ARG poll.

Hillary leads by 6 points, and gets 47% (in the SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polls she had 47-48%, in the ARG poll 42%).

Obama gets 41% (compared with 38% in the Rasmussen poll and 44% in the SUSA and ARG polls).

A Zogby poll for Reuters and C-Span conducted on Jan. 31 - Feb. 2, however, had numbers more in line with the ones of ARG: here, Hillary is down at 44%, with Obama just 1 point behind at 43%.

The Zogby and ARG polls were centred a day or two after the SUSA, Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon polls, so who knows, there may really be a slight drop for Hillary at the very end, rather than just statistical noise. Aftera ll, the latter three polls had a 4-9 point Hillary lead, while the former two basically have a draw. That's a different picture.





In the Mason-Dixon poll, Hillary and Obama get almost the same favourable/unfavourable ratings among likely Democratic primary voters, with Hillary actually eeking out Obama: both have a 60% favourable rating, and they have 16% and 19% unfavourable ratings.

It also has the usual crosstabs: Hillary leads among women by 14, Obama among men by 6; Hillary leads among those over 50 by 19, Obama among those younger than 50 by 12. Obama gets 35% of the white vote (and Hillary 52%, with 13% not yet ready to vote for either), while Hillary gets just 13% of the black vote (and Obama 79%).

Hillary leads among self-described Democrats by 16, but trails among Independents/Republicans likely to vote in the Democratic primary by 27. Obama leads among the one in eight voters who thinks Iraq is the most important issue, by 16 points, but trails among the one in four who cites health care, by 22, and among the almost half of voters who list the economy and jobs, by 18.

Interesting regional difference (but it might just be a function of race); Obama leads by 10 in greater St. Louis, but Hillary leads by 5 in greater Kansas City, and by 21 in the rest of the state.

The Zogby crosstabs echo the same patterns: "Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points)."

Hi Nimh,

A little birdie told me that in the Field CA Poll, amongst those who had already voted in CA, Obama only trailed 32-31 (with 20 for Edwards/other).

IF that's so...

BIG MO can win the day for him.

Cycloptichorn

That little birdie so got my hopes up re: an Edwards endorsement!!!

Hope he's right about this though.

I do remember Kos changing his mind (he'd been planning to vote for Hillary) and doing his CA absentee vote for Obama in like mid-January.

Or it could just be that enough women and older men were put off by the brash confidence of the young bucks supporting Obama and their backers in the media to decide to throw a spanner in the works... :wink:

Seriously, Maporsche is right here. Anyone who thinks it was just, only and simply the tears that yielded Hillary that surprise win, is the one kidding himself. Thats about as rash a simplification as concluding that Hillary's strong support among women means that all those women only support her because she's got a vagina.

Different Birdie!!!!

From California Progress Report:



Cycloptichorn

Come to think of it, Obama might have an edge in early voting as it seems to me that many progressives are choosing the absentee ballot over the fear of machine irregularities. OTOH it might be that Obama would have gotten an even higher percentage of those voters now.

That said, this race isn't going to be decided in the primaries, it will be decided by the super delegates.

There's a new Gallup poll out today. If it is the third poll showing Obama with a lead...

Cycloptichorn

CBS/NY Times Clinton-Obama DEAD even 41%-41%

Hillary seen as most likely to do anything for the Presidency

Talk about an image problem.. if even your own party's voters think you are more likely to pull a dirty trick than your opposite party's candidates..

This from a Fox News poll conducted on Jan. 30-31:



But on the bright side for Hillary:



The poll also has this quirky but effective question: "Whoever is elected president will be on television constantly for at least four years. Which one of the following candidates would you MOST want to watch on television for four years?"

Answers suggest Clinton doesnt meet particularly more resistance than Obama - not among Dems, but also not among Indies (only among Republicans).

They also suggest, happily, that Independent voters would prefer to see either Dem candidate over either Republican - and that Republicans are still less satisfied with their candidates than the Democrats are with theirs.