Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Both parties have staged tight, seesawing battles for the nominations for November's presidential election. Clinton, the New York senator, and Obama split the first four Democratic contests -- Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada.

In California, the poll found Obama led Clinton by 45 percent to 41 percent, with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Clinton held statistically insignificant 1-point leads on Obama in New Jersey and Missouri, well within the margin of error of 3.4 percentage points in both surveys.

Obama leads the "most likely to vote" Democrats 53-29 percent over Clinton.

A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.

The new poll shows why Obama's campaign has been targeting decline-to-state voters, who can cast ballots in the Democratic primary. While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.

Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Sunday, February 3, 2008

Obama, Clinton Are Even In Poll
McCain Now Clearly GOP's Front-Runner After Primary Wins

By Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, February 3, 2008; Page A01

Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) are running roughly even nationally as the battle for the Democratic nomination heads into Tuesday's big round of primaries and caucuses, while Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) has jumped to a dominating lead over his remaining rivals in the Republican race, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

A startling surge of support for Barack Obama has catapulted the Illinois senator into a virtual tie with Hillary Rodham Clinton in California's Democratic presidential primary, a Field Poll released Saturday shows.

Arizona Sen. John McCain lengthened his lead in the state Republican primary, grabbing a 32 to 24 percent edge among likely voters over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was at 13 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 10 percent.

But the Democratic numbers are the shocker. Clinton, a longtime California favorite, saw her once-commanding lead slip to two percentage points, 36 to 34 percent, in the new survey. That's down from the New York senator's 12 percentage point lead in mid-January and a 25 percentage point margin over Obama in October.

But with 18 percent of Democratic voters still undecided just days before Tuesday's primary, the election is still up for grabs, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director.

"It's an unusually volatile election, with a very high number of undecided voters and so many moving parts," he said. "It could be a very, very close election."

The head-to-head matchups between the Republican and Democratic candidates highlight both Clinton's loosening hold on California voters and McCain's growing strength in the state.

USA TODAY/Gallup Poll: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%, and McCain surges

Democrat Barack Obama has erased Hillary Clinton's national lead in a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, gaining 11 points over the last two weeks to make the nomination race a statistical tie. The new state of play: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%.

Late Update: Gallup track swings in the other direction. A two point race. Clinton 46%, Obama 44%.

Late Update: Meanwhile, USAToday/Gallup has a one point race: Clinton 45%, Obama 44%. Obviously, this sounds kind of weird since it's two polls by the Gallup organization. But this is one conventional poll sponsored by USAToday. And a separate tracking poll by the Gallup organization. IN other words, this is not two different slicings and dicings of the same survey.

The Latest on Gore

According to a source close to Al Gore, multiple people in the former VP's orbit are in touch with him on a regular basis to urge an Obama endorsement. According to this source, Gore's hesitation is three-fold:

1.) The memory of the ill-fated Dean endorsement looms large for him.

2.) (Which is somewhat related to 1.) He's worried about somehow jinxing Obama.

3.) He's enjoying the contrast between himself (statesman-like, above the fray) and Bill Clinton, who's been rooting around in the mud for his wife and damaging his legacy in the process.

To that list, I can't help adding a thought of my own: If, as now seems possible, this race goes to the convention and the convention gets deadlocked, is it so crazy for Gore to imagine himself as either a.) one of the party elders who decides the outcome, or b.) a unifying, white knight candidate in his own right? And, if that's not crazy, shouldn't Gore sit tight for now?

Just askin'...

--Noam Scheiber

That's a much nicer-looking chart than yesterdays'.

I'm still antsy.

I'd be happy if something big happened tomorrow (Edwards or Gore, pretty much).

The poll found that Clinton and Obama both have the support of 41 percent of Democratic primary voters - a drastic change from early January, when Clinton led Obama by 15 percentage points. While Clinton's overall support has remained steady, Obama has made significant gains among men, particularly white men, and African Americans. White male voters are split nearly evenly between the two Democrats, and Obama holds an 12 percentage point advantage among men overall.

Obama has also seen his support among women rise by 11 percentage points, and he now trails Clinton by only 7 percentage points among that group. He trails Clinton narrowly among Democrats but leads her among independent voters by 13 percentage points.

Obama surges in California. The buzz that accompanies that surge goes too far, and raises expectations too high. He ends up finishing a close second. This should be tremendous news -- Hillary had an incredible lead for a very long time. But because of the hype, it'll be seen as a momentum-dampening disappointment. "Man, I thought he'd win this."

I hope this resembles his last surge in popularity.....you all remember what happened next...Clinton won in NH.

I hope all the Obama supporters hear about these polls too, and these gains he's making. It will make it that much easier for them not to show up at the polls on Tuesday.

Rasmussen: Obama by 1 in Cali

Multiple polls confirm Obama surge in California!

Cycloptichorn