Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Interesting, soz, but dated.

Yeah. I think that if there were more recent ones they would be there, but I'm not sure. 1/10-13/08 seems to be the most recent.

MISSOURI - DEMOCRATS

Following up on the Survey USA poll flagged above, a Rasmussen poll conducted this week agrees that Obama is picking up much of the Edwards vote. But with another substantial share of Edwards voters still on the fence, this poll still has Obama trailing Hillary by almost 10 points:



Another data point supporting my contention that "Clinton fatigue" is mostly an elites/activists thing and is not widespread among the rank and file: "The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 76% of Likely Primary Voters while Obama earns such positive reviews from 72%."

Note also: "Just 66% of voters are "certain" they have settled on their final choice in this election and events over the final weekend of the campaign could impact the final results."

ILLINOIS - DEMOCRATS

In Illinois, little has changed at first sight in a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll: Obama still has a commanding lead over Hillary. The difference with early December is small: Obama has 55% now, compared to 50% then; Hillary has 24% now, compared to 25% then.

John Edwards had just 7% of the vote in December - do Obama's minor gains show that he picked those up? Probably not. They must have gone to Hillary since her numbers stayed stable even as the following happened:

"The most recent poll found support for Clinton among black voters dropped by 10 percentage points and her favorable rating among African-Americans fell almost 20 percentage points amid charges her campaign sought to inject race into the contest. At the same time, Obama, the first black contender with a legitimate chance of becoming a major party presidential nominee, gained 7 percentage points among black voters as well as white voters."

MISSOURI - REPUBLICANS

A new Rasmussen poll, conducted Jan. 31, confirms the data of a concurrent Survey USA pollflagged above: in this winner-takes-all state, it's a clean split between three frontrunners. Like Survey USA, Rasmussen gives McCain a narrow edge - he gets 32% - with Huck coming in at 29% and Mitt at 28%. Whose supporters will blink first?

Romney's campaign is the most eager to trigger a realignment - while McCain is just fine with a three-way race, Romney has put his fate in scaring conservative voters into its camp by portraying Super Tuesday as the last chance to stop McCain. At the moment, it's Huckabee 33%, Romney 33% and McCain 23% among conservatives, so Mitt needs Huck's voters. But an obstacle in the way of creating a sense of urgency is the way the Republican race is simply overshadowed by the Democratic one:

"The prospects for Super Tuesday turnout are even more challenging than usual to anticipate because of the partisan spending disparity. Two well-funded Democratic candidates are advertising on TV and campaigning with paid staff while the Republican candidates are getting by with far fewer resources."

But Mitt is doing the best job in catching up, that must be said, in the wake of Rudy dropping out and with undecideds making up their mind. Compared with a Rasmussen poll conducted a week earlier, Huckabee has won 2 points, McCain won 6, and Romney gained 10 points.

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TENNESSEE - REPUBLICANS

Rasmussen also has Romney closing in on McCain in Tennessee in a poll conducted on Jan. 30. In another three-way race of sorts, McCain holds the lead with 32%, but Romney is close by at 29%, while Huckabee trails with 23%.

But is that what's really happening in Tennessee? Hard to tell. Tennessee was rooting for Fred Thompson until he dropped out, and now the field is in flux. Two polls were conducted on Jan. 28-29, the day before and the day of the Florida primaries, and another two on Jan. 30, the day after.

In the former two, Huckabee led with narrow margins, ahead of McCain by 4 and 1 points, respectively, and of Romney by 8 and 6 points. In the latter two, McCain is leading, with more variable numbers, ahead of Huckabee by 8 and 9 points respectively and of Romney by 15 and 3 points respectively.

So is Romney trailing in third place or hot on the heels of Mac? With no candidate getting more than a third of preferences in any of the four polls, this is something of a crap shoot, "as 10-15% of each major candidate's supporters say there's a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Just 63% of all voters are "certain" they will stick with their current candidate."

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ALABAMA - REPUBLICANS

A new InsiderAdvantage poll, conducted on Jan. 31, largely echoes the Rasmussen poll that was done the same day. McCain is ahead, but Huckabee is still a close second, and in the InsiderAdvantage poll the difference is just 2 points (McCain gets 37, Huckabee 35). Romney is a distant third, in this poll even more distant (with 14%) than in the Rasmussen one.

Says the Southern Political Report: "The split among hard conservative voters between Romney and Huckabee has McCain in the catbird's seat, just as in most states. The difference in Alabama is that the Huckabee-Romney split is a lot of Huckabee support, and little for Romney. In Georgia, Romney and Huckabee are tied for second behind McCain. Clearly, rural white conservatives are not identifying with the blue-blooded Romney."

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ILLINOIS - REPUBLICANS

A new poll by the Chicago Tribune and WGN-TV neatly illustrates the raging storm that has wrecked havoc in the Republican field this last month. They polled Illinois in early December, and now, a month and a half later, nothing is the same:



McCain seems instoppable here, but there is a lot of insecurity still by how much he will win: "the survey still found .. 17 percent of Republicans undecided heading into the primary [and] 36 percent of Republicans who expressed a choice for a nominee said they could yet change their mind before Tuesday. That includes 41 percent of those backing Huckabee, 38 percent supporting McCain and 31 percent for Romney.

Again, my main concern with "Clinton fatigue" is not that it HAS kicked in -- though I think it has somewhat after Bill's NH to SC stretch -- but that it could be a major liability in the general elections. Among Independents, some Democrats, and Republicans who might otherwise vote for Obama.

Appreciating the state-by-state analysis.

I'm getting (here in New Mexico) about 3-4 calls per day asking for Hillary support and have gotten 1 call in past week re Obama. I will attend our caucus on tues supporting Obama.

ALABAMA - DEMOCRATS

I already mentioned a poll commissioned by the Alabama Education Association, conducted on 1/23-29, which had Obama leading by 5, and a Survey USA poll done on Jan. 30-31 that had Clinton and Obama tied. On the other side of the ledger, now there's two polls that have Clinton leading, by 5% and 6% respectively.

An InsiderAdvantage poll conducted on Jan. 31 has Clinton leading Obama 46% to 40%. A Rasmussen poll conducted the same day has an almost identical result, with Clinton leading 46% to 41%. Since Rasmussen polled the state a week earlier too, on Jan. 23, we have an apples-to-apples comparison:



Race still plays a volatile role in Alabama, the Rasmussen numbers show:

"Clinton is viewed favorably by 82% of the state's Likely Primary Voters, Obama by 70%. Obama is viewed favorably by 89% of African-American voters but just 51% of White Voters."

Ouch

Clinton also retains a foothold among (older?) blacks:

"While Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among African-American voters in the state, Clinton still attracts 30% of this important segment of the electorate."

On a related note, the Southern Political Report observes:

"This race may hinge on whether Obama can inspire a hyper-turnout of black voters. We see evidence that the Clinton campaign is spending time and money even in states where they trail badly - such as Georgia - probably to stretch Obama's resources too thin for him to win enough marquee primaries on Tuesday to make a difference. Bill Clinton is in Atlanta this weekend, where Hillary Clinton trails Obama by double-digits."

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TENNESSEE - DEMOCRATS

What is happening in Tennessee? Lord knows, except that any which way, Hillary's looking good.

Four polls were conducted directly before and after the Florida primaries, between Jan. 28 and Jan. 30.

Obama's support ranges from 26% to 35% in those polls, with no pattern in the difference between the polls done before and after the Florida primaries.

There does seem to be such a difference in Clinton's numbers. Her support was at 36% and 43% in the two polls done before the FL primary results were in (by PPP and WSMV/CRawford Johnson), and 49% and 59% in the two polls done on the day after (by InsiderAdvantage and Rasmussen).

Clearly a bump? Keep in mind though that these are polls by four different pollsters, so there could also be so-called "house effects" at play.

All in all a double digit lead for Hillary in three of four polls, so it seems fairly certain she'll win -- but with her lead varying from 5 to 23 points, nobody can know by how much.

The write-down of the WSMV poll notes some racial volatility in the race - of the kind that I suspected already in the Illinois numbers (see above):

Among the Democrats, Senator John Edwards' support largely dissolved (and this survey was taken before Edwards' decision to withdraw). Most of his supporters - nearly all of whom were white - shifted to the Hillary Clinton camp. At the same time, a significant portion of Clinton's support among African-Americans has moved to Barack Obama's camp.

In fact, this poll has Obama's support among "Caucasians" in Tenessee at a mere 19%, against 48% for Hillary and a remnant 10% for Edwards.

Among blacks, the poll had 54% supporting Obama, just 13% for Hillary, and an amazing 31% still undecided (between the two, I assume) just days ahead of the vote.

In the Rasmussen poll done on Jan. 30, all the usual constituency gaps emerge:

"Clinton leads by twenty-five points among women but by just a single point among men. Twenty-six percent (26%) of men are either undecided or say they will vote for some other candidate. Clinton leads 61% to 23% among white voters while Obama leads 71% to 12% among African-American voters. Clinton leads by seventeen points among those who consider the economy to be the top issue. The candidates are essentially even among those who consider the War in Iraq as the highest priority."

The write-up of the WSMV poll actually explicitly asked about the Fred voters. Interesting stuff:



Looks like the Thompson supporters in his homestate pretty much scattered across the field proportionally.

ARG:

Delaware-
Clinton: 44
Obama: 42
Undecided: 10
Someone else: 4

Missouri-
Obama: 44
Clinton: 42
Undecided: 9
Someone else: 5

If it was any other group then ARG I would feel better...

Cycloptichorn

Obama only needs to survive super Tuesday to win this thing. For one thing his momentum and support have been growing, and a strong showing/close second on Tuesday will only add to that support, especially if he strongly competes in CA.

Look at the rest of Feb:

Louisiana (February 9th)
Nebraska (February 9th)
Washington (February 9th)
Virgin Islands (February 9th)
Maine (February 10th)
District of Columbia (February 12th)
Maryland (February 12th)
Virginia (February 12th)
Hawaii (February 19th)
Wisconsin (February 19th)

With the exception of the Virgin Islands many of the states have decided Obama advantages. He could win Feb 12th completely, with ease, simply due to the AA population. Hawaii is his home state. Feb 9th is the day that he really needs to win - if so, he'd lock the thing, I'd be willing to bet. He's already running ads in those states. Isn't as if he's going to run out of money.

Cycloptichorn

Um, Nimh. It's 2 am. I thought you there in the Budapest bureau were supposed to be covering the music scene on this Saturday.

Could be daily variation like Cyclo says.. although up 4 is a big jump. I mean, it's the biggest jump upwards either candidate has had since Jan. 19, when Hilary won 4 points after she won the Nevada caucuses.

The bad news is that Rasmussen shows the same movement. In today's issue of its tracking poll, Clinton is up 2 to 45%, while Obama is stagnant at 37%.

The debate, after all?

Ha!

I went to an experimental dance performance thingie with my friend/colleague Cs - mostly to check out this guy she fancies, who was in one of the three groups appearing.

He was very young :wink:

One of the other groups, though, were these two guys - one English one Hungarian I think - and they were friggin amazing. I'm not really that big a, eh, connaisseur of modern dance <ahem..>, but even I could see that they were brilliant. From the first moment, just the two of em on the stage moving, with simple but perfectly sharp lighting, powerful use of some kind of specially composed thumping beats, and the barest of props, they drew you in and you stayed there.

But yeah I came home, and Anastasia is out in the pub across the road but I dont feel like going there. So my insomniac self is compiling tables :wink:

How's the expectations game going, though? Will Obama keep his momentum if he comes in a "close second", or will a Hillary win propel her on a momentum of her own?

Thats where winning states comes into the picture I guess. With the proportional distribution of delegates going on, you can gather a great number of delegates without even winning many states. But winning states is what gets ya the media momentum. There's 22 states at stake - if Hillary wins, say, 15 then surely she's the one running away with the momentum.

Hoping the daily tracking poll thing today is a fluke.. in the state polls the overall story is still very much that Hilllary holds on to the numbers she got but Obama rapidly catches up as the pool of Other/Dont Know dries up. And in the end it's on state level that the decisions will be made.

<antsy>

Who would have thought that the first poll showing Obama in the lead in Missouri would be an ARG poll!

ARG usually seriously overpolls Hillary support...

Me too.

I'm hoping it still does!

Cycloptichorn

From tomorrow's WaPo.

As for the expectations game, it's just hard for me to see that the pundits and public aren't going to notice the fact that 12 days ago he was down by 20 points! And he has narrowed the gap in EVERY state.

He needs to over-perform by a few percentage points in order to really seal the deal. I still say that if he comes out 55-45% then he's done well that day.

Cycloptichorn

Nimh:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/2/173620/8734/4/448495

A breakdown of the CA electoral districts, with projections.

Cycloptichorn