Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

fbaezer wrote:

With 45% reporting, McCain's ball going...

Looks that way. Question, who has the likely advantage in Florida panhandle?

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46% in.
McCain 35%
Romney 32%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 13%

I am looking pretty smart right now. Notice the turnout amongst male Repubs vs female Repubs. I wonder if that means something.

You still awake, Nimh?

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Two things:

1) I love that Clinton is stomping Obama. I love it because none of the Super Tuesday states are going to get near as much individual attention as the first 4 primary states did, so the results will be somewhat similar to this FL vote where democrats did not campaign at all. Plus she will get the bump moving in to Feb 4th.

2) I am very happy to see Rudy's "wait until Florida" plan FAIL.

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maporsche wrote:

Two things:

1) I love that Clinton is stomping Obama. I love it because none of the Super Tuesday states are going to get near as much individual attention as the first 4 primary states did, so the results will be somewhat similar to this FL vote where democrats did not campaign at all. Plus she will get the bump moving in to Feb 4th.

2) I am very happy to see Rudy's "wait until Florida" plan FAIL.

I think you are completely and totally wrong about this. Just not a lot of evidence to support your position.

The cable networks and pundits have already written this win off - to the point where they didn't even show her victory speech. To the general public, that's akin to it not even happening at all.

I also don't understand why you seem to think that Obama will do just as bad in states where is has actually campaigned, as ones where he didn't - but Bill did and Hillary went on for a few weeks about how she was going to push to change the rules in the middle of the game.

Well, we will see.

Cycloptichorn

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MSNBC is reporting heavy communications between Giuliani camps and McCain camps. It seems likely that Giuliani will throw his support to McCain - maybe tonight, how crazy would that be?

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

Well, we will see.

'

We sure will....and if I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. And if Obama wins, I'll throw all my support towards him (unless McCain wins the GOP contest, that will be tough).

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maporsche wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
Well, we will see.

'

We sure will....and if I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. And if Obama wins, I'll throw all my support towards him (unless McCain wins the GOP contest, that will be tough).

McCain is going to win the candidacy for the Republicans, so you'd better be ready for that possibility.

Cycloptichorn

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

maporsche wrote:
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Well, we will see.

'

We sure will....and if I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. And if Obama wins, I'll throw all my support towards him (unless McCain wins the GOP contest, that will be tough).

McCain is going to win the candidacy for the Republicans, so you'd better be ready for that possibility.

Cycloptichorn

It will come down to who each of their VP running mates are, and how they shape their campaigns before November.

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

[
The cable networks and pundits have already written this win off - to the point where they didn't even show her victory speech. To the general public, that's akin to it not even happening at all.
Cycloptichorn

So if the networks don't report it, it didn't happen?

By the way, I tend to think maporsche will be right, Clinton probably will still win this primary. I do think also that the bitter fight and jumping ship from the Clinton bandwagon by so many Democrats will offer an opportunity for Republicans to benefit from the general unhappiness and fractured nature of the Democratic Party right now.

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okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
[
The cable networks and pundits have already written this win off - to the point where they didn't even show her victory speech. To the general public, that's akin to it not even happening at all.
Cycloptichorn

So if the networks don't report it, it didn't happen?

By the way, I tend to think maporsche will be right, Clinton probably will still win this primary. I do think also that the bitter fight and jumping ship from the Clinton bandwagon by so many Democrats will offer an opportunity for Republicans to benefit from the general unhappiness and fractured nature of the Democratic Party right now.

It's sad to say but true that to most Americans, if they didn't see it, it didn't happen.

I think that there will be few Dems who defect to Republicans this cycle. Too much of the last 8 years for that.

Cycloptichorn

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okie wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:
[
The cable networks and pundits have already written this win off - to the point where they didn't even show her victory speech. To the general public, that's akin to it not even happening at all.
Cycloptichorn

So if the networks don't report it, it didn't happen?

By the way, I tend to think maporsche will be right, Clinton probably will still win this primary. I do think also that the bitter fight and jumping ship from the Clinton bandwagon by so many Democrats will offer an opportunity for Republicans to benefit from the general unhappiness and fractured nature of the Democratic Party right now.

I think you'll see the splintered Democrats come back to Clinton.....not all, but a majority. Once you get McCain or Romney attacking her, you'll see her support build.

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McCain's ball going... going... gone!

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CNN and MSNBC both call for McCain.

Cycloptichorn

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Besides McCain winning, Florida does one other very important step, and that is it establishes the Republican race as pretty much a 2 person race now. Huckabee is still in, but he may nowl fade further now as well. He is again looking like the second tier candidate he was before the primaries began.

It all depends upon which of the two top candidates the support coalesces into on Super Tuesday.

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"splintered Democrats?" I reckon that could be if you are talking about the delegates from Michigan and Florida who can or can't play in the Democratic convention.

But McCain tonight won 57 delegates in a state that is supposed to have 114. The Repubs stripped FL of half of its delegates. How splintering will that be?

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I think those delegates will end up counting. FL is too important of a state in the general election to ignore all those voters.

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I think you are correct, map, about the delegates in MI and FL on the Dem side and in FL on the Repub side. But it is going to leave a bad taste in the mouths of many voters (particularly on the Dem side), when the party reverses itself and says "Well, next time we REALLY mean it. But not this time." Obama gets hurt badly for obeying the Dem rules.

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maporsche wrote:

I think those delegates will end up counting. FL is too important of a state in the general election to ignore all those voters.

As I just figured out and said in the Obama thread - if they do end up seating those delegates, it isn't as if Obama isn't going to get his fair share! She will end up with about 35 more delegates then he got.

So it's not as if seating these delegates would seal the deal for her or anything like that...

Cycloptichorn

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realjohnboy wrote:

Obama gets hurt badly for obeying the Dem rules.

They ALL followed the Dem rules (except for Obama's recent campaign ads being played in FL).

If he really didn't think MI mattered then he would not have told all of his supporters to vote for "uncommitted".

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Cycloptichorn wrote:

So it's not as if seating these delegates would seal the deal for her or anything like that...

Didn't say it would, but it doesn't hurt.

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