17
   

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 04:32 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Embarrassed What's a C.W.? Is that like the British term for a resume? Embarrassed


Conventional Wisdom

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 04:34 pm
http://www.courier-journal.com/blogs/politics/2008/01/lewsi-retires.html

KY-02, rep. Lewis to retire.

This makes 28 or so retirements for the Republicans this cycle and there will be more.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 04:58 pm
Sorry for the jargon, thanks for clearing that up Cyclo!

Whether or not Romney wins tonight, his rapid and steep ascent in the Florida polls (and the most striking graphical representation of all can be found here) is already proving this bit of punditry from a week ago right:

Quote:
Romney's Overlooked Advantage

TNR The Stump
23.01.2008

David Corn recently argued that Obama will be hurt by the shift to big multi-state primary days like February 5 since his inspirational message works best when he's directly in front of voters. Whether or not that logic is right (and Jason has argued that it isn't), I think a version of it does apply to the GOP race. Looking at some of the recent Florida numbers showing Mitt Romney climbing, I can't help but think he benefits, and John McCain and Mike Huckabee suffer, from the shift toward an "air campaign" and away from voter-to-voter contact. And tha'ts not just because he's the best-financed candidate in the field.

Romney's always struck me as an-adequate-at-best retail politician (town hall meetings, etc.). But he's good looking, has a nice resume, and an authoritative voice--the kind of things that make for effective TV ads. Huckabee and McCain on the other had, are much better at the retail game. Indeed, their respective successes in Iowa and New Hampshire were largely a function of their magnetism on the stump. The Florida campaign, to say nothing of February 5, seems to play into Romney's hands by depriving them of that advantage and minimizing his own liabilities.

--Noam Scheiber
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:01 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:

What you don't understand is that reality is biased against Bush's, and by extension, your position.

What you don't understand is that Bush was duly elected by a majority of electoral votes to be president, and he is more real than you are and what you think.

Quote:
Please tell me what Bush said of substance and that was new, in your opinion. I'd be more then happy to highlight everything he said that has been said in previous SOTU addresses. And the lies.

Cycloptichorn

I don't think we treat this thread correctly with you and I going into some detailed analysis of Bush's speech. Suffice it to say that I pointed out why the pundits were off base, and I cited valid reasons with facts. To take it any further is nothing more than wrangling over something that you will never agree with anyway. I would suggest we agree to disagree and let it go at that, for the time being.

I will say that obviously Bush said lots of things of substance, if you can't see that, then we will just disagree. Whether it was new, who cares, there were a few things new, but even if it involves wrapping up or finishing up old issues, that is just as necessary, if not moreso. I am not one to buy into this mantra of something new, or change, as I think we need to get back to the old tried and true basics. Many things new Bush proposed were shot down, like Social Security reform, and Bush is not as dumb as the pundits, he knows something new is not likely to be approved for a lame duck president, and if he proposed something bold and new like the pundits were criticizing him for not doing, they would have instead harshly criticized him for being unrealistic as a lame duck president.

Let us agree to disagree. I made my point, you disagreed, lets get back to the subject.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:06 pm
Quote:
Suffice it to say that I pointed out why the pundits were off base, and I cited valid reasons with facts


You most certainly did not do this. You did not provide any valid reason and you didn't provide any facts. I specifically dare you to link to the valid reasons and facts.

If you want to run away from the conversation, that's fine with me; not the first time. But you are lying to yourself if you think you did either of those things.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:15 pm
I'm not running away from a conversation, I am simply pointing out to you that you are beating a dead horse. No matter what Bush would have said last night, the pundits would have run it down big time, you know that. I simply point out the bias and misrepresentation of the press, which is a fact, in my opinion. I did present evidence whether you wish to acknowledge it or not, I don't care, that is your problem, not mine.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:20 pm
okie wrote:
I'm not running away from a conversation, I am simply pointing out to you that you are beating a dead horse. No matter what Bush would have said last night, the pundits would have run it down big time, you know that. I simply point out the bias and misrepresentation of the press, which is a fact, in my opinion. I did present evidence whether you wish to acknowledge it or not, I don't care, that is your problem, not mine.


Evidence that you cannot specifically name nor can you link to. Right. You've lost this conversation, so I'm moving on to more interesting stuff.

Early exit polls in FL:

McCain 33
Romney 32

Wowowoweeee! It's going to be a long and exciting evening!!!

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:24 pm
Where are you getting your numbers from tonight, Cyclo? I will be hanging out on NPR, but they won't be doing anything until 8 pm ET.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:38 pm
This was from the Corner:

corner.nationalreview.com

But I will be using Talking Points Memo and CNN.com later tonight, this first one was a rumor I guess.

Cheers

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 05:56 pm
I'm wishing for a Romney win, that would insure a dem in the whitehouse, McCain might be a little bit more difficult.
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:01 pm
Don't count your chickens before they hatch.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:10 pm
I am writing that down, okie.
Don't...count...your...chickens...until...they...have...hatched.

One hour until party time. It is one am tomorrow in Budapest, by the way.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:12 pm
dyslexia wrote:
I'm wishing for a Romney win, that would insure a dem in the whitehouse, McCain might be a little bit more difficult.

Yep.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:13 pm
It's early still Smile
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:24 pm
Wuh oh for Romneyz

Quote:

From Mark Halperin:

FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS

Senior Citizens- McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7

Veterans- McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8

Hispanics- McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5


Unless there are more veterans then Hispanics, that's big trouble.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 06:31 pm
Another WOWOWWOWEEE

Rassmussen

In CT:

Obama - 40%
HRC - 40%
Edwards 11%

Quote:
Clinton leads by four among women while Obama leads by six among men. Clinton leads among voters over 65 while Obama holds the edge among younger voters. Clinton does better among lower-income voters while Obama attracts more of those with higher incomes.

The survey was conducted January 27, the day after Obama's victory in South Carolina.


No trendlines available but Hartford Courant had him at -14...

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 07:18 pm
29% in:
McCain 34%
Romney 33%
Giuliani 15%
Huckabee 13%
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 07:45 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Wuh oh for Romneyz

Quote:

From Mark Halperin:

FOX NEWS EXIT POLL RESULTS

Senior Citizens- McCain 40, Romney 31, Giuliani 18, Huckabee 7

Veterans- McCain 37, Romney 36, Giuliani 14, Huckabee 8

Hispanics- McCain 50, Giuliani 26, Romney 16, Huckabee 5


Unless there are more veterans then Hispanics, that's big trouble.

Cycloptichorn


Romney and Huckabee together get 21% of the vote of the republican side of the Cuban-American community. That's 21% of the farthest to the right Hispanic community in the US.
I just wanted to underline that.


--

We knew it beforehand, but I would say it's safe now to say Giuliani is toast.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 07:47 pm
With 45% reporting, McCain's ball going...
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 29 Jan, 2008 07:57 pm
Yall certainly are quiet tonight.

Interesting comment, fbaezer, about the Cuban-American vote. We will re-visit that issue tomorrow. I need to think about it.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

 
Copyright © 2024 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.09 seconds on 11/17/2024 at 10:40:44