Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

I have to think that most Americans, and most Democrats could give a flying f**k about what the national DNC says. I don't vote for a party, I vote for an individual and their platform. I have to think that most Americans feel the same way.

I forget. Was Obama's name on the ballot in MI?

No

So, map, wouldn't it make sense to ask his supporters to vote "uncommitted?"

Of course it would....if you thought MI meant anything.

How many delegates does MI have? Or could have, if the Dem Party authorities decide to admit them to the convention? Which they will, in the end.

156

Maporsche: I think each of us has presented a case about delegates in MI and FL on the Dem side and FL on the Repub side and how the situation might affect various candidates.
Feel free to inject a final comment if you desire, but then let us move on.

Johnboy

I think that FL is infinitely more likely to be sat then MI at this point, simply because all the Dems could agree that if FL was re-instated, everyone would get a few. But if MI was reinstated, only Hillary would receive delegates.

Look for a caucus later on in MI, or them not getting seated at all.

Cycloptichorn

Bedtime for johnboy. With 94% reporting:
1. McCain 36% by 5 over
2. Romney 31%, and
3. Giuliani 15% by 1 over
4. Huckabee 14%

Not bad!

Oh, and finally a primary that the polls werent greatly off on.

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Zogby did impressively in the final iteration of its daily tracking poll on the Republican race: it had had McCain at 35, Romney at 31, and Giuliani and Huckabee both at 13. The actual result at the moment is 36/31/15/13.

But Survey USA didnt do badly either: its last poll had said McCain 32, Romney 31, Giuliani 15, Huckabee 13.

Datamar and PPP, on the other hand, were off badly. The Datamar poll, held just days before the primary (1/25-27), had estimated Romney to be leading McCain 36% to 23%! PPP had had Romney leading 35% to 28%, and Huckabee in third place.

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In the Democratic primary, the polls did pretty well too; the only exception being that Obama did 3-5% better than almost all the polls had had him at. The poll that came closest was Quinnipiac . It had pegged Hillary at 50%, Obama at 30%, and Edwards at 12%. Actual results at the moment have Hillary at 50%, Obama at 33% and Edwards at 14%, so close enough.

Strategic Vision deserves a mention as the only pollster that actually overestimated Obama's support at 36%, with Hillary at 49% and Edwards at 11%. And Survey USA had a poll out that was arguably as good as Quinnipiac's, getting the proportions between the candidates almost exactly right - except it wasnt the last one it put out. It followed up with a newer poll that was further off.

No surprise about who the worst pollster was: once again, it was ARG. Its last poll out had had Hillary at 57% and Obama at 27% - a 30% lead for Hillary that turned out to be 17%. Rasmussen did even worse in the net sum of points it was off on the candidates, but looks a little better if you redistribute the 12% it had as undecided. A little better than ARG that is, still worse than all the others: it had assessed the race as Clinton 44%, Obama 25%, Edwards 19%.

You need to get a job with a polling company as an analyst. You are looking pretty good with that prediction.

It is my opinion that the press helped McCain alot by giving him what seemed like alot more face time the night before, which is worth alot more than paid advertising. Perhaps I missed it, but I saw McCain giving his vaunted opinion, saw lots of Democrats, and saw no other Republican candidates commenting on Bush's speech. Also, Bush's speech gave alot of time to fighting terrorists, etc., and that became the subject on peoples minds again for a day or two, perhaps enough more to also give McCain a boost, because that is where he gains support.

And Gov. Crist's endorsement... it was a really tight race, that must have helped tip it in those last couple of days..

This certainly doesn't suck if you are an Obama fan.



Cycloptichorn

If the trends continue, cyclops, I won't be surprised to see the clinton machine to roll out more dirt on Obama.

Sure doesnt!

And while national polls were close to useless in the early primary season when it was all about Iowa, or New Hampshire, or South Carolina, Super Tuesday will be as close to a national primary as you can get. So instead of the effects of lots of up close and personal campaigning and organising and retail politics taking center place, it'll be much more about overall impressions, about your nationwide stature and image, especially in the states that have primaries rather than caucuses. So this is a lot more relevant now..

It's encouraging that the slope of the line is going upwards if anything; according to Gallup, this is the three-day rolling average and Tuesday was closer, down to a few points separating them.

Okie, I don't buy this. Why wait? When are they going to dish the dirt - after Super Tuesday? It may be way too late by that point if Obama does great on that day. Not to mention the Superbowl is this weekend, which basically erases politics from the minds of many American voters. So it would need to be today or tomorrow to get the dirt out.

Cycloptichorn

Good evening to yall. Nimh, you may have commented on this, but why is ARG so far off target so often? Are they biased (in which case they aren't pollsters but hucksters) or is there something in there polling methodology that is flawed? RJB

I do think that there are enough people now very sensitive to the dirt that they have tried and might try, so they may now realize that it won't work, and they may try to salvage a very narrow victory as long as they are up a point or two, or more, nationally. If Obama actually takes the lead, then they may figure they have nothing to lose, they have no choice but to pull out all the stops. It could happen in the day or two before Super Tuesday, so that it cannot be fully examined.

If they think they can do okay on Super Tuesday, they will go with it the next few days without all the dirt, then if it still hangs in the balance, they may use the dirt later.

I don't know about you, but I still remember vividly the fraudulent hit piece on Bush a couple of days before the election. The difference now is that the press also supports Obama and is not doing the bidding of the Clinton political machine, like they did the bidding of the Democratic party machine in the past.