Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

nimh wrote:

MSNBC has a good scoreboard with just the delegates won in the primaries and caucuses. Better go there than to CNN, where there seems to be something screwy with the data. This MSNBC page also has a column for superdelegates, but it's still set at 0 for everyone.

It's updated to include the Nevada delegates too now.

Including Nevada, the scores are now:

37 - Hillary Clinton
37 - Barack Obama
18 - John Edwards

59 - Mitt Romney
34 - Mike Huckabee
17 - John McCain
5 - Fred Thompson
4 - Ron Paul
2 - Duncan Hunter
1 - Rudy Giuliani

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nimh wrote:

MSNBC has a good scoreboard with just the delegates won in the primaries and caucuses.

Wow, so that's 38 Obama, 36 Hillary!

I was just reading about Nevada being non-binding though, so it won't necessarily shake out that way. (I.e. the delegates can decide to go for the front-runner at the moment -- I think it's May when they have to commit -- whomever that may be.)

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nimh wrote:

37 - Hillary Clinton
37 - Barack Obama

sozobe wrote:

Wow, so that's 38 Obama, 36 Hillary!

Soz is right, its 38-36. Either my eyes were loopy or they just updated right then :wink:

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Yeah, I too thought there was something wrong with the earlier delegate report.. So off we go to SC!

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Whoa:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/19/162953/644/790/439573

(One of those things that may or may not be true, and I don't know at this point, not making a judgment. But whoa.)

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sozobe wrote:

Whoa:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/19/162953/644/790/439573

(One of those things that may or may not be true, and I don't know at this point, not making a judgment. But whoa.)

Hmm.

I gotta say, when I read the first list, the overall list with complaints from all the precinct captains, I was pretty whoa'd too -- thats not good. That cant all be misunderstandings or what not. Thats bad.

But then when the writer proceeded to explain the alleged abuses he had experienced in his own precinct.. those were not very convincing, to be honest. If the other captains' complaints break down like that when explained in detail too, there isnt perhaps all that much to them.

But thinking of all the bad blood created - just look at that comments section, damn! - that alone is enough to make one wince.

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Yeah, I know what you mean.

The 11:30 thing seems to be a common thread. But I dunno.

Meanwhile, CNN now has the same as MSNBC about 38 (Obama) 36 (Hillary) and 18 (Edwards) delegates here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/

I do NOT get that, but I need to shut off the computer so I'll wait until tomorrow for enlightenment.

It seems like there is some discrepancy between state delegates and national delegates and national ones are the ones that matter -- but then if Obama gets 13 of the ones that matter and Hillary gets 12, how does that mean Hillary won? Weird weird weird.

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Meanwhile, McCain has an early lead 13% reported

McCain 16,903 34% 0
Huckabee 14,878 30% 0
Thompson 7,408 15% 0
Romney 7,136 15% 0
Paul 1,997 4% 0
Giuliani 1,143 2% 0
Hunter 122 0% 0

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okie wrote:

I'm predicting McCain loses SC.

Looks like I missed that one. Could be bad news for Huckabee. In fact, the press has figured most of these guys were toast at one point or another, maybe its Huckabees turn again?

Is Giuliani even going to be remembered as running by the time Florida gets here? 2% in SC?

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I wouldn't be so quick to concede, okie.

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Still cruising 36% McCain to 28% Huck with 27% reported... and Romney fighting Thomson at 15% Very Happy

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interesting, I find personally that I don't like McCain and would never vote for him but I also (oh my god okie may have a stroke) McCain has a brain so I don't really dislike him. Huck, on the other hand, is a freakin' idiot.

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Fair enough...

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45% in:
McCain (33%). Huckabee (29%), Thompson (16%), Romney (15%)

I am surprised Romney is drawing that well.

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Romney is in this for the long haul. He will have the delegate lead coming out of SC. It seems to be a 4 man race in Florida, Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. and it depends if Giuliani fades, where will his support coalesce under?

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okie wrote:

if Giuliani fades, where will his support coalesce under?

I'll give you one teenywheeny hint; his name is John McCain...

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84% in.
McCain (33%), Huckabee (29%), Thompson (16%), Romney (15%).

McCain declared the winner.

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realjohnboy wrote:

I am surprised Romney is drawing that well.

This should explain that:

Romney significantly outspent his rivals in overall television advertising in South Carolina. His ads aired 5,257 times to Huckabee's 2,049 and McCain's 1,471, between February 2007 and Tuesday in the Charleston, Columbia, Greenville-Spartanburg and Myrtle Beach-Florence TV markets, according to a report by Nielsen.(Source)

His ads aired more than twice as much as Huckabee's and more than three times as much as McCain's - and he's still trailing at half their support.

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realjohnboy wrote:

84% in.
McCain (33%), Huckabee (29%), Thompson (16%), Romney (15%).

McCain declared the winner.

So I got that one wrong. Sucks.

Should give McCain a new leash of life as co-frontrunner with Romney. While Huckabee - well... if he cant win South Carolina, then yeah.. doesnt look good for him anymore. Like Okie said, his turn to be declared toast.

All bad news for the Dems - a Huckabee would have added to the confusion among the Republicans, and McCain seems by far the most challenging opponent left standing (barring a Rudy resurrection).

Oh, and I wonder whether Thompson will bow out now...

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Interesting for as close as SC was between McCain and Huckabee, 33 to 30, McCain is shown with 13 delegates vs only 3 for Huckabee. Maybe that is an incomplete tally, but should be close.

Another bit of information, Romney wins more delegates on the day than McCain, 18 to 17.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#SC
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#R

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