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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 11:10 am
@nimh,
I was just going to post this link.
LOL, you beat me by seconds.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 11:10 am
@nimh,
nimh wrote:

okie wrote:
The other factor, election fraud, who really knows, and the lawyers are lining up. The election process has been really corrupted [..]. No shame on the part of some people.

You're right about that. I was just reading about how pro-McCain people are calling people in Democratic-leaning areas to warn them about how long the lines for voting will be, and telling them that they can vote telephonically by pressing a number on their phone instead.


Apparently, flyers are being distributed in Pennsylvania and Virginia telling people to vote on Wednesday... I dont think we need much guessing to figure out which side they're coming from.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 4 Nov, 2008 01:42 pm
Sorry for the cross-post, but this might be useful for any geeks among you - I just posted it on Observationalism:

Election night toolkit: data and resources

An overview of some fine election night resources and what you can find there. Overviews of key races and counties, but also resources with demographical data and historical election results.
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Nov, 2008 06:36 pm
Hey Nimh!

Have you checked the NYC maps starting here?:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html

Studying the voter shifts usually proves more interesting than studying the vote itself.

If you notice, map number 2 (which colors only those counties where McCain 2004 got more votes than Bush2004), besides barely "pinking" Arizona, delineates, almost exactly, a map of the Ozarks + the deepest south.

Map number 3 tells you about the democratic growth: the West was bluer almost unanimously -even in Idaho and Utah-, but most noticeably in Indiana, the Western shore of the Great Lakes ans the Southern border.

Then come the exit-polls:
The biggest shift towards the democrats came, by far, from the Hispanics.
Hispanics are the main demographic group responsible, also, of the Obama wins in New Mexico and Florida (and Colorado and Nevada, may I add). The so-called McCubans were less than the Cubobamas.
Then come the other key states, where the white vote shift was important. It's real interesting to notice than in some states (Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina) the Obama shift was mainly among the urban voters, but was across the board in Virginia.

In any case, it proves that the 50-State strategy was correct.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Nov, 2008 06:49 pm
@fbaezer,
fbaezer wrote:
The biggest shift towards the democrats came, by far, from the Hispanics.
Hispanics are the main demographic group responsible, also, of the Obama wins in New Mexico and Florida (and Colorado and Nevada, may I add). The so-called McCubans were less than the Cubobamas.


One note I made last night -- the Latino/ Hispanic vote in Arizona went 61/36 for Obama.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Wed 5 Nov, 2008 07:16 pm
@fbaezer,


Muchas gracias
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 09:57 am
Thought you would enjoy this in light of your previous discussions about regional trends in the US.

NY Times shows voting shifts
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/gadgets/slideshows/621/slide_621_12707_large.jpg
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 10:00 am
@FreeDuck,
Whoa! Seriously cool graphic! Cool find.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Thu 6 Nov, 2008 12:08 pm
@FreeDuck,
So Obama's share only shrunk in places the Banjo's duel. Cool.
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Nov, 2008 11:26 am
@nimh,
Does anyone know if there will be/is a breakdown of how active military personnel voted?
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 7 Nov, 2008 12:43 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
Yep. The Deliverance demographic, in technical terminology.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 08:47 am
Here's something I did not know...
Quote:
Friday, Nov. 7, 2008 16:27 EST
Record turnout? Only for Democrats
Leading up to the presidential election, there was a lot of discussion about possible record turnout at the polls.

But according to Curtis Gans, an election expert at American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate, that didn't happen. Gans released a report Friday that estimates that between 126.5 million and 128.5 million ballots were cast this year. That would mean that roughly 60.7 percent of the electorate voted -- nearly the same number who voted in 2004.

But that's not the whole story. Gans also found that the number of Republican voters dropped by 1.3 percent, while the number of Democratic voters rose by 2.6 percent, marking the seventh straight increase for the Democratic share of the presidential vote since 1980. So in fact, there was record turnout this year; it just didn't spread across the electorate.
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 07:11 pm
@blatham,
That could be due to Dems having a greater tendency, within the usual margins of error, to believe that their vote represents them as determining all our destinies.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 07:25 pm
@ehBeth,
I havent seen one. The exit polls only ask the respondents whether they "have ever served in the US military".

I did come across an article about the subject of how the military votes a week or two before the elections though:

Private opinions
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 07:28 pm
Posted this on Observationalism yesterday:

Quote:
How did North Carolina end up the ultimate toss-up state? Reviewing county data

Observationalism
November 7, 2008

AP and NBC yesterday belatedly called North Carolina for Obama, making the state’s result the second last to come in. Only Missouri hadn’t been called yet. So how did it become so close? Facing South has a good summary up of the main strategical and political reasons. But I would like to look more specifically at the geography and demographics of the race.

For Obama to win the state required a 12.4% swing (that being the margin by which Bush was elected in 2004). He got a 12.6% swing. Which parts of the state pushed Obama over the line? Where did his efforts of persuasion fall short? What demographics were at play? An in-depth look.

Continue Reading »
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 09:58 pm
@nimh,
Thanks! that is a very interesting start.

I'd really started thinking about this when the Virginia results were coming in - and then discovered that I couldn't find a way to easily tease out the effect of the large military community on the vote.
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 10:23 pm
@ehBeth,
Yes, that's difficult.. I suppose you could look at what counties have military bases, and see if the vote there differs notably from surrounding counties.. but you'd always have to keep in mind that there might well be other demographic differences between those counties too (eg race).

I guess the election results and exit poll data just don't provide a good way to isolate this, and you have to rely on other polling and research.

I had a related thread up during the primary season: The military vote: GI's give most to Obama (and Ron Paul)
I remember seeing similar numbers during the general election campaign (GI's surprisingly donating more to Obama than to McCain), but I dont think I made a note of it anywhere..
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 8 Nov, 2008 10:27 pm
@blatham,
The map is sure mega-cool; the NYT outdid everyone else, again, in their election results maps.

However, here's an exit poll factoid to keep in mind:

  • Poor/working class whites voted more often for Obama than middle/upper class whites.

    Whites with an income of under $50,000 went for McCain by 51% to 47%; but whites with an income over $50,000 went for McCain by 56% to 43%.
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 9 Nov, 2008 08:47 am
@nimh,
Nimh

That's interesting. I'll betcha there's a generational difference underlying that one.
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Sun 9 Nov, 2008 04:34 pm
@blatham,
Doesn't Bernie make a song and dance about the obvious?
0 Replies
 
 

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