Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

@blatham,

Probably. But maybe working class whites were also just not quite as caught up in the racism and cultural conservatism as pundits (both red and blue) make them out to be. There's a long tradition of the Democratic candidate getting a bigger share of the vote the less money people make, after all.

It's a pity that the exit polls of 2000 and 2004 didn't pr0vide a similar breakdown of income groups by race, so we don't have the data for a direct comparison.

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@nimh,

Quote:

There's a long tradition of the Democratic candidate getting a bigger share of the vote the less money people make, after all.

Understood.

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Just posted a new item on Observationalism, check it out if you're interested:

Selected exit poll comparisons, 2000-2004-2008

A side-by-side comparison of how the exit polls break down the presidential vote by demographic group this year with the numbers from 2004 and 2000 - in simple pie charts. Among which groups has Obama done better or worse, and by how much, than Kerry and Gore did? Data on gender, race, age, income, education and party ID.

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@nimh,

Quote:

simple pie charts

From now on, sweet potato pie charts... http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22059

...a delightful essay from Mark Danner

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@nimh,

This was predictable, of course:

More exit poll comparisons, 2000-2004-2008

More side-by-side comparisons of how the exit polls break down the presidential vote by demographic group this year with the numbers from 2004 and 2000 - in simple pie charts. Among which groups has Obama done better, by how much, than Kerry and Gore did? Data on first-time voters, religious groups, married versus unmarried voters, union households and gun-owning households, urban, suburban and rural voters, and voters from the different regions of the country.

Go check out whether you agree with my takes...

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Quote:

It seemed like 2004 was a high water mark for evangelical influence. They loved President Bush and helped sweep him into victory.

Well guess what: evangelicals made up an even bigger part of the McCain vote than the Bush vote.

Born again Christians or evangelicals made up 36% of Bush vote and, by my count, 38.% of the McCain vote.

Some of that results from non-evangelicals - Catholics in particular -- abandoning the Republicans while evangelicals mostly stayed put. But the Republican ticket actually drew two million more evangelicals in raw numbers than George Bush did, presumably because of excitement about Sarah Palin and extreme fear of Barack Obama.
Whatever the reason, some four million more evangelicals turned out this time than last, some going to Obama but most to McCain.

http://blog.beliefnet.com/stevenwaldman/2008/11/evangelicals-made-up-a-bigger.html

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@blatham,

Thanks for that Bernie.

A British government minister said last week that blogs are undermining democracy and contributing to the climate of despair.

Why do you think we want to read blogs of your choosing?

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By the way, when the hell are they going to call Missouri?

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@fbaezer,

fbaezer wrote:

By the way, when the hell are they going to call Missouri?

If you want my opinion, I think they don't want to. Missouri prides itself on being the state that calls the election right every year. A tradition may be broken.

Whats interesting to me is how many votes Nader and Barr got in MO.

T
K
O

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@Diest TKO,

What's surprising me is that it may NOT be broken. I thought Missouri was definitely going to McCain (and yes, have been wondering what's taking so long!!) but I read somewhere today (538 maybe?) that there's still a chance of it turning out to go for Obama.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

What's surprising me is that it may NOT be broken. I thought Missouri was definitely going to McCain (and yes, have been wondering what's taking so long!!) but I read somewhere today (538 maybe?) that there's still a chance of it turning out to go for Obama.

Dinner conversation tonight with my sister revealed that they haven't actually started to count the provisional ballots yet. But I guess this is kind of low priority... lol.

T
K
O

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I didn't think I'd be revisiting the election now that it's finally over! But, I liked these maps (sorry they're BIG). First is the election by population, second by electoral votes, last by county.
http://www.sciam.com/slideshow.cfm?id=electoral-results-maps&thumbs=horizontal&photo_id=889F2CDE-FE3A-1797-5C84D607130E6E68

http://www.sciam.com/media/gallery/885972CB-A460-9AA4-65A3B9625A9346D4_2.jpg

http://www.sciam.com/media/gallery/885972CB-A460-9AA4-65A3B9625A9346D4_3.jpg

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@littlek,

Wow! You're on the same medication as me! What are the chances?

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@littlek,

At last. Something real.

It's odd how in the third map the blue looks like reservations and the red looks like a fairly coherent whole.

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nimh

Thought you might have a use for this site and data...

Quote:

The following statistics reflect those individuals who do not have photo identification:

11% or as many as 21 million Americans
36% of voters in Georgia over the age of 75
18% of Americans over 65 (6 million)
25% of African Americans
10% of 40 million people with disabilities
15% of low income voters

http://www.lwv.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=11254

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Quote:

Southern Whites for McCain
Doug Henwood on the share of white vote for McCain:

Alabama 88%
Mississippi 88%
Louisiana 84%
Georgia 76%
South Carolina 73%
Texas 73%
Oklahoma 71%
Arkansas 68%
North Carolina 64%
Tennessee 63%
Kentucky 63%
Virginia 60%
West Virginia 57%
Florida 56%
California 46%
Connecticut 46%
Minnesota 46%
New York 46%
Vermont 44%
Massachusetts 42%
Vermont 31%

Outside the "south"--which for these purposes includes Texas, Oklahoma and Florida--McCain lost the white vote.

http://delong.typepad.com/

1 Reply

@blatham,

Oooooh good, you just saved me a lotta work.

Before the elections, I wrote this blog post about "the red and blue states of white America" - I'd made a map of how white voters had voted in 2004. Interestingly different from the overall map. I wanted to do a new one now about these elections, but I didnt savour the prospect of browsing through the exit polls for each of the 50 states. Now you spared me the effort.

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@nimh,

Oh wait, it's an incomplete list. Still, that's twenty-odd exit polls I dont have to scroll through.

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nimh

You may or may not want this data but I thought I'd pass it on. I hadn't expected the correlation to be so strong.

Quote:

Money Wins Presidency and 9 of 10 Congressional Races in Priciest U.S. Election Ever
Published by Communications on November 5, 2008 3:19 PM | Permalink
WASHINGTON -- The historic election of 2008 re-confirmed one truism about American democracy: Money wins elections.

Quote:

http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/11/money-wins-white-house-and.html

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@blatham,

They used to buy commissions in the military. Generally with the family money. Which is a foundational race manifestation. Any money raised by Mr Obamo and any votes he got based on him being black was racist.

He is essentially a white man.

I have no argument with those who claim that Mrs Obama's dress at the victory rally was militantly racist.

If he positively discriminates for blacks in choosing his team then that would be racist too.

1 Reply

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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