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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
revel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 07:16 am
I am pretty ignorant about internet advertising so the advertising may be different for different individuals, but I was reading in Rasmussen today and I just happened to notice the advertising. One is a positive advertising of McCain/Palin and the other is a negative cartoon video of Obama.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

In any event, it appears for today at least Obama is leading McCain by 1 point with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points.
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 08:44 am
RCP has Obama by 2 points.

The highest being +5points for Obama (CBS/NY Times) followed by +4points by Gallup and Quinnipiac.

T
K
O

0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 01:21 pm
In the daily tracking polls, Obama's rebound seems to be levelling off at a renewed four-point lead or so. That's still a couple of points short of his post-Democratic Convention high, but better than where he was at just before the Convention.


http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/7231/dailytrackingpolls4mq7.png


Oh, in the legend, ignore the line that says "AVERAGE Obama-McCain". It's invisible.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 01:29 pm
Those are the national data from the tracking polls. Meanwhile, pollster.com's Charles Franklin looks at the aggregate of state polling that has come out, and his findings are even more encouraging for Obama.

Basically, he is back up where he was at the top of his Democratic Convention bounce, meaning that all of the Palin + Republican Convention bounce for McCain has been undone.

Quote:
Obama Recovery Across Red, Yellow and Blue States


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/NationalTrend0922-thumb-600x450.png


Obama has now recovered his lead in national polling, rising at or above his post-DNC, pre-RNC level. This sharp turnaround erases the very sharp pro-McCain/Palin convention bounce we saw in early September.

But the Obama recovery is not concentrated in Democratic states. As with the McCain advantage, this turn is visible in all three types of states-- Red, Yellow and Blue.


http://www.pollster.com/blogs/BluesRedsPostRNC0922-thumb-600x450.png


The biggest recovery is actually in the Red states, where McCain enjoyed his biggest bounce. Those states are now back where they started, or even a shade less pro-McCain, but they are a far ways from being "close".

The states we have classified as tossup or leans (what I'm calling yellow here, though on the map leans are light red or blue) have also seen a significant Obama recovery. The range of movement is rather modest, but the roughly three point McCain gain has now been balanced by a 3+ point Obama recovery in these most contested states, putting Obama up by just over a point.

Dem states showed a small move to McCain and have now seen an Obama recovery, though with a one point fall off most recently.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 05:04 pm
There was an interesting bi-partisan poll out today and reported on by NPR. It shows Mr McCain leading amongst rural voters by 10 points. Mr Bush, in 2004, carried 20% of rural voters. If McCain does not improve, he might have a difficult time overcoming Mr Obama's lead in urban areas. The key phrase there is "If McCain does not improve..." At this point in the 2004 race, Bush had a 13 point lead but clearly was able to improve upon that as the race wore on. Part of that was Kerry's inept campaign.

By the way, nimh, I am curious whether you have run across this in polling:
(Q) Would you consider not voting for Obama because he is black?
(A) I am not racist. It makes no difference that he is black.
(Q) Do you know people (family, neighbors co-workers) who would vote against Obama because he is black?
(A) Oh, yes.
revel
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 06:26 am
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Quote:
3. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the 2008 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats) and (John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans), for whom would you vote?

9/22/08 Obama 52 McCain43


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_092308.html
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 01:13 pm
@realjohnboy,
realjohnboy wrote:

By the way, nimh, I am curious whether you have run across this in polling:
(Q) Would you consider not voting for Obama because he is black?
(A) I am not racist. It makes no difference that he is black.
(Q) Do you know people (family, neighbors co-workers) who would vote against Obama because he is black?
(A) Oh, yes.

Yep Cool

From what I understand it's a way for pollsters to get round any social desirability bias (or whatever the official term for that is) in the responses they get.

Even when talking anonymously to a pollster on the phone, people tend to adjust their answers somewhat toward what they consider the more socially desirable answer. The bigger the taboo, the more people will fudge about their real feelings about it, basically, and instead answer something more like what they think other people would want them to answer.

Eg, if a polling person calls you on the phone and asks, have you ever fantasised about raping goats, or something, you are quite likely to answer "no" even if you have - and even though you know you're talking anonymously.

(An interesting question is whether pollsters like Survey USA who use automated calling (i.e., you dont talk to a live person but to a computer) get around that somewhat, by taking out the human factor from the equation.)

Anyway, admitting that you wont vote for a black person is by now rather taboo in most parts of the country. So the pollster is less likely to get an honest answer on questions like, "would you be prepared to vote for a black candidate". Something they use to get around that and get a more honest assessment of how widespread such reluctance is, is to ask the respondent, "do you know anyone who would not vote for a black person", or something of the sort.
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 01:36 pm
RCP: Obama by 3.7%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#chart

cool interactive chart too.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  3  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 01:48 pm
OK, so both pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com not only keep track of all the polls that come out for every state, but also compute a trendline or projection on the basis of those polls.

I wanted to draw the current electoral map on the basis of the data on those two sites. Specifically, to draw the map according to different thresholds for what to consider a toss-up state.

If nothing else, it's a good opportunity to practice the Google Charts thing Craven presented on a more advanced scale. (I've used the web tools he linked in to make simple pie and bar charts, but want to now try out following the instructions in the Google Chart developer's guide on making maps.

OK. So coloured in on the following map are all the states where both pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com currently give one of the two parties an advantage of at least 10%. These are, like, rock-solid safe states:


http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,5599FF,FF5544&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=ALAKAZARCACTDEHIIDILIAKSKYMDMAMSNENYOKRISCSDTNTXUTVTWY&chd=t:99,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,1,1,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,99,99,1,99


That's a very red looking chart, but in fact it's 160 Electoral Votes for the Dems and 128 for the Republicans. You need 270 to win, of course.

OK let me post this one first.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 01:51 pm
@nimh,
Today's poll of note -

CO - Obama 50 McCain 41 , Insider Advantage

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 01:53 pm
@nimh,
Cool stuff nimh.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
kickycan
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:00 pm
Here's the latest "poll of polls" data.:

http://img88.imageshack.us/img88/2744/pollsxb7.jpg
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:05 pm
@nimh,
OK, let's tighten it up a notch. States that both sites have one or the other candidate ahead in by at least 7%:


http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,5599FF,FF5544&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=ALAKAZARCACTDEHIIDILIAKSKYMDMAMSNENYOKRISCSDTNTXUTVTWYORNDLAGAME&chd=t:99,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,1,1,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,1


That's 171 Electoral Votes for the Dems and 155 for the Republicans. Both still far removed from 270. But all the states not colored in now are arguably in play: what's a 7% gap? One candidate needs to convince 3,5% of the voters to switch parties.

Tighten it up another notch: states where both sites have one of the candidates ahead by at least 5%:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,5599FF,FF5544&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=ALAKAZARCACTDEHIIDILIAKSKYMDMAMSNENYOKRISCSDTNTXUTVTWYORNDLAGAMEWANJ&chd=t:99,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,1,1,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,1,1,1

That puts Washington and New Jersey in Obama's column, making for 197 Electoral Votes for the Dems and still 155 for the Republicans.
Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:07 pm
@kickycan,
The GOP usually stays out of this thread, but I would find it entertaining to watch one come in and tell us about how one poll... was say better than another for whatever reason... Wonder which one they'd choose?

Nah... What am I thinking? They don't believe in polls. He'll I'd be inclined to believe the same, but when places like RCP combines data from multiple sources using multiple methods and the results show a real trend, we call it something else...

Convergence.

T
K
O
0 Replies
 
Diest TKO
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:10 pm
@nimh,
Nimh - I have a request. Can you continue to do a progressive map image with the % spread in the bottom right? Then take the jpeg and make it an animated .gif?

T
K
O?
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:20 pm
@nimh,
Bugger, that bottom map should have had New Mexico colored in for Obama already.
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:27 pm
@nimh,
Haha, you're already doing a great job, don't sweat the small stuff!

Some new numbers for the averages, tho -

CNN Battleground Polling

Colorado: Obama 51, McCain 47
Michigan: Obama 51, McCain 46
Montana: McCain 54, Obama 43
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 44
West Virginia: McCain 50, Obama 46
Dates conducted: Sept. 21-23. Error margin: 3.5 points.

Great news for Captain O!!! CO, MI, PA all above 50 percent!!!

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:30 pm
@nimh,
Another notch to states where both sites have one of the candidates ahead by at least 3%:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,5599FF,FF5544&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=ALAKAZARCACTDEHIIDILIAKSKYMDMAMSNENYOKRISCSDTNTXUTVTWYORNDLAGAMEWANJNMMIMNWIWV&chd=t:99,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,1,1,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,99

That puts Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin in Obama's column and West-Virginia in McCain's, making for 239 Electoral Votes for the Dems and 160 for the Republicans.

Still 31 short for Obama, and 110 short for McCain.
nimh
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:49 pm
@nimh,
Are you feeling the suspense? Laughing

States where both sites have one of the candidates ahead by at least 2%:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,5599FF,FF5544&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=ALAKAZARCACTDEHIIDILIAKSKYMDMAMSNENYOKRISCSDTNTXUTVTWYORNDLAGAMEWANJNMMIMNWIWVPACOMTMONC&chd=t:99,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,1,1,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,99,99,1,99,1,99,99,99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,99,1,1,99,99,99

That puts Pennsylvania and Colorado in Obama's column and Montana, Missouri and North-Carolina in McCain's, making for 269 Electoral Votes for the Dems and 189 for the Republicans.

This of course would put Obama on the edge of being elected -- except that 269 Electoral Votes makes for a very tortured post-elections process.

So basically, what Obama's painless election comes down to is getting at least one of the states left undivided on this map as well.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 24 Sep, 2008 02:54 pm
@nimh,
Hi Nimh,

How about the one vote from Nebraska that he might get Laughing

My friends who live in that region tell me that it's very, very possible.

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
 

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