Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

Does this matter at all?

New Battleground polls
Posted: Friday, September 19, 2008 11:30 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Polls

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Marist battleground polls (among registered voters):

-- MICHIGAN: Obama 50%, McCain 41%
-- OHIO: Obama 44%, McCain 44%
-- PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45%, McCain 42%

Remember those polls I linked to earlier today that showed some interesting results for the election? Well the internals are out now and let's just say some things are indeed "interesting" about them.

Let's look at %AA voters in each poll and then the %AA population in that state.
%AA poll / %AA population (2006)
IL 10% / 15%
IA 0.9% / 2.5%
IN 4.8% / 8.9%
MI 8.4% / 14.3%
MN 1.9% / 4.5%
OH 6.7% / 12.0%
PA 5.0% / 10.7%
WI 3.2% / 6.0%

Do you think that may have an effect on the results in places like PA, WI, MN, and even IA? I do. From what I could tell, they did not weight by race. But please correct me if I'm wrong on that. I have not heard Charles Franklin (from pollster.com and one of the people who did this poll) talk about that.

It would seem that AA's were massively and systemically under-sampled in this polling... right around 50% off of the demographics in each state. Think that would make the races look a little tighter?

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

It would seem that AA's were massively and systemically under-sampled in this polling... right around 50% off of the demographics in each state. Think that would make the races look a little tighter?

Cycloptichorn

AA = Average American, right?

Poll: Obama tops McCain as football-watching buddy

Fri Sep 19, 6:46 AM ET

WASHINGTON - People would rather watch a football game with Barack Obama than with John McCain " but by barely the length of a football.

Obama was the pick over McCain by a narrow 50 percent to 47 percent, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll released Friday that generally mirrored each presidential candidate's strengths and weaknesses with voters. Women, minorities, younger and unmarried people were likelier to prefer catching a game with Obama while men, whites, older and married people would rather watch with McCain.

"I think he'd be fun to sit back with and hear his experiences, all his stories," said Kyle Ferguson, 28, a Republican from Santa Rosa, Calif., who picked McCain. But reflecting a sense some voters have of McCain based on the complaints of a few Senate colleagues, he added warily, "I bet he'd probably get pretty angry and lit up if his team was losing."

Democrat James Smith, 29, of Asheville, N.C., picked Obama because he believes he and the Democratic senator from Illinois have more in common.

"With McCain, I have such an age difference," said Smith of the Arizona senator, who is 72. But with Obama, 47, he said, "If things went well with the conversation, the football game would be forgotten. There'd be a lot of back and forth."

Such views are significant because in many elections, candidates considered more likable have an advantage.

McCain backers were a bit more intrigued by watching with Obama than the Democrat's supporters were with making McCain their football buddy. While fewer than one in 10 Obama backers wanted to watch with McCain, nearly one in five McCain supporters wanted to kick back with Obama. [..]

Obama roots for the NFL's Chicago Bears, McCain for the Arizona Cardinals.

With Obama struggling to win over former supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, the poll had worrisome news: 35 percent of them would rather watch with McCain, well above the 23 percent figure for all Democrats.

There was also a danger sign for McCain: About three in 10 voters are still undecided or say they may switch candidates. That group leans narrowly toward Obama as their football companion.

The poll of 1,740 adults was conducted Sept. 5-15 and has an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points. It was conducted over the Internet by Knowledge Networks, which initially contacted people using traditional telephone polling methods and followed with online interviews.

Obama roots for the NFL's Chicago Bears, McCain for the Arizona Cardinals.

I made a choice today to register my vote in Virginia instead of doing an absentee ballot in Missouri.

Diest TKO wrote:

I made a choice today to register my vote in Virginia instead of doing an absentee ballot in Missouri.

I am not, TKO, singling out our state of VA for criticism. But there does seem to be confusion amongst voter registrars about students, and whether they should vote in the state where they come from, where their cars are registered etc. etc. Be careful to monitor that amongst student groups you might come into contact with.
I also heard a story, but only once, that some folks in VA are receiving what appear to be absentee ballots that they did not request, urging them to mail a vote in in order to avoid waiting in line.

Diest TKO wrote:

I made a choice today to register my vote in Virginia instead of doing an absentee ballot in Missouri.

I am not, TKO, singling out our state of VA for criticism. But there does seem to be confusion amongst voter registrars about students, and whether they should vote in the state where they come from, where their cars are registered etc. etc. Be careful to monitor that amongst student groups you might come into contact with.
I also heard a story, but only once, that some folks in VA are receiving what appear to be absentee ballots that they did not request, urging them to mail a vote in in order to avoid waiting in line.