Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

@nimh,

nimh wrote:

This of course would put Obama on the edge of being elected -- except that 269 Electoral Votes makes for a very tortured post-elections process.

So basically, what Obama's painless election comes down to is getting at least one of the states left undivided on this map as well.

So which of the remaining states are currently most promising?

In Florida and Indiana, both pollster.com and fivethirtyeight.com give McCain the advantage, if with a narrow advantage. In IN, McCain leads by 2,5% according to pollster and 1,7% according to fivethirtyeight. In Florida, he's given the edge by 3,3% and 0,6% respectively.

So that leaves New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Nevada. In all these states, 538 at the moment accords the advantage to Obama, but in all of them pollster.com gives the edge to McCain. On balance, McCain gets Ohio and Nevada, and Obama gets Virginia and New Hampshire.

Code:

   Fivethirtyeight   Pollster



VA     Obama +2,4   McCain +1,0

NH     Obama +1,8   McCain +1,2

NV     Obama +0,2   McCain +1,5

OH     Obama +0,3   McCain +2,9

Virginia actually looks better than NH right now. The latest two polls out of NH both have McCain with a 2-3 point lead there, and one of them is the locally respected UNH poll. The four last polls from Virginia on the other hand have split, two with Obama comfortably ahead (by 6 and 8 points) and two with McCain narrowly in front (by 2 points). The pollsters showing Obama ahead also have a little more entrenched a reputation (ABC/WaPo and Survey USA) than the two with McCain ahead (Rasmussen and ARG). But obviously, it's a coin's toss.

And of course, if the state that's Obama's best chance of getting 269+1 is down to a coin's toss, that is starting to make that other thread about the complicated consequences of a 269-269 result in the Electoral College uncomfortably topical.

1 Reply

@nimh,

Some people seem to think that Virginia will look like a wasteland if Congress doesn't do what it's told. NH as well.

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@Diest TKO,

Hey DIest, yeah that would be cool! When I started making these I thought of that too - wouldnt an animated gif be cool of that. But this happens to be the first time that instead of just selecting states on an interactive map like 270towin.com's and then saving screenshots as gifs in Photoshop, I tried using this Google Charts option. Basically the whole image is built into the URL. It's an interesting way of making charts/maps, but it took some figgering out, and I'll be buggered, after having done that, if I'm now going to make screenshots of those after all and turn 'em into gifs like I coulda done straight from the start Laughing

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I was showing Staz these Google charts, how to make 'em and stuff, explaining that the states in the map are coloured in with red or blue by assigning them "99" and "1" on a blue-to-red colour scale. She's all, ah, and then you can have all kinds of shades of colour in between the two by using "25" or "75" etc instead.

That made me think of something.

So here's the map again, but not artificially divided up between "blue" and "red" states. Instead, it shows the degrees in between that the states' voters really are -- with red on one end of the scale, blue on the other and purple in between:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,0000FF,9922EE,FF0000&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=CANVORWAIDMTWYUTCOAZNMNDSDNEKSOKTXMNIAMOARLAAKHIMSALGAFLSCNCTNKYWVVAMDWIILINMIOHPADENJNYCTRIMAVTNHME&chd=t:42.6,50.8,45.4,47.0,66.3,51.3,65.4,67.2,48.6,55.2,46.9,55.6,57.3,63.2,60.5,64.4,58.8,48.4,45.0,52.6,56.2,53.8,60.9,33.2,57.1,59.8,57.7,51.7,59.2,51.7,61.6,59.0,51.8,50.5,42.0,47.8,42.4,51.3,48.4,51.5,48.8,44.7,46.5,41.3,43.4,40.2,41.4,39.9,50.6,45.4

(I used the current polling trend point for each state on pollster.com. Took the lead of one candidate over the other, and recentred it on 50%. So if Obama lead 49% to 43%, a lead of 6, I used 53% to 47%, a lead of 6, by setting the state's colour value at 53. Anyway..)

I didnt really like purple as midpoint, so here's an alternate version with white as midpoint - a question of changing just one value in the URL:

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?chs=400x220&cht=t&chtm=usa&chco=FFEEAA,0000FF,FFFFFF,FF0000&chf=bg,s,EAF7FE&chld=CANVORWAIDMTWYUTCOAZNMNDSDNEKSOKTXMNIAMOARLAAKHIMSALGAFLSCNCTNKYWVVAMDWIILINMIOHPADENJNYCTRIMAVTNHME&chd=t:42.6,50.8,45.4,47.0,66.3,51.3,65.4,67.2,48.6,55.2,46.9,55.6,57.3,63.2,60.5,64.4,58.8,48.4,45.0,52.6,56.2,53.8,60.9,33.2,57.1,59.8,57.7,51.7,59.2,51.7,61.6,59.0,51.8,50.5,42.0,47.8,42.4,51.3,48.4,51.5,48.8,44.7,46.5,41.3,43.4,40.2,41.4,39.9,50.6,45.4

It's a nice relativation to all the alarmed hype about how mortally divided the country is between two parts that will never meet - blue-state America, red-state America, the coastal liberals, the conservative heartland, fly-over country. One look at this map shows how relative all that really is. Most states are just evenly spread between Dems and Reps, or lean just a little this or that way.

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@nimh,

Nimh - can you redo the "purple map" to be a contrast from black to white? A visual index from red to blue can be deceiving because blue registers more than red with our eyes.

It doesn't have to be B/W but perhaps red to blue doesn't offer the contrast needed. That or you could just ad a key to let us see what pure red is and what pure blue is...

Thanks!
K
O

1 Reply

@Diest TKO,

Or you could just look at the next map in his post where he solves all that with a white midpoint.

1 Reply

@Robert Gentel,

Wow... I'm totally blind. I missed it completely...

T
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@nimh,

Pretty slick map, Nimh.
Have you looked at Intrade's front page lately?

http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/9682/intradere4.jpg

Looks pretty good today! Wink

1 Reply

@OCCOM BILL,

Did you see the thing from Nate Silver (538) where he talked about Intrade acting weird?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

That was from Wednesday, may be back to normal now.

I don't really draw any particular conclusions from it but I thought it was an interesting read.

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@sozobe,

sozobe wrote:

Did you see the thing from Nate Silver (538) where he talked about Intrade acting weird?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

He seemed to imply that someone was selling Obama's and buying Clinton's and McCain's and that the only reason someone would buy Clinton's is to bet on Obama not making it to election day. He even suggested the secret service check it out. Very strange.

1 Reply

Fox News, or Annals of Selective Reading:

Here's Fox News:

Quote:

McCain Campaign Suspension Affecting Poll Numbers

This is a rush transcript from "America's Election HQ," September 25, 2008. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MARTHA MACCALLUM, HOST: All right. Step with me inside the "Strategy Room" tonight. [..] John McCain is getting mixed reactions after saying yesterday that he is suspending his campaign and that he thought it might be a good idea, given what is going on in the country, to delay the debate for a few days. And it looks like this move might be working for him.

There is a tie right now in the Gallup poll taking into consideration McCain's announcement, although we should note that this would be very close to include that tomorrow in the Gallup poll. You will get a better sense of the reflection of how all this is playing out for John McCain based on that decision. But 46-46 is a move. We have seen Barack Obama ahead by about three percent in that poll in recent days.

Here's what Gallup actually wrote about that poll:

Quote:

John McCain has gained ground and is now tied with Barack Obama among registered voters in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update for Sept. 22-24, with each candidate getting 46% support.

This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain's announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis. A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position.

So Fox touts a move in Gallup's numbers towards McCain after his suspension of the campaign, which Gallup itself explicitly warned did not occur.

1 Reply

@engineer,

engineer wrote:

sozobe wrote:

Did you see the thing from Nate Silver (538) where he talked about Intrade acting weird?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/intrade-betting-is-suspcious.html

He seemed to imply that someone was selling Obama's and buying Clinton's and McCain's and that the only reason someone would buy Clinton's is to bet on Obama not making it to election day. He even suggested the secret service check it out. Very strange.

It's still going on. I've been watching it. Twice a day, someone basically has been resetting the growth of Obama and holding McCain up, by buying a bunch of one and dumping a bunch of the other. It's not a coincidence, as they happen simultaneously.

It's hard to take pictures of their charts, so I'll have to do a screen cap. But the timing is no coincidence.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

Here we go. Look at noon yesterday and 8 PM yesterday.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3058/2890355202_a8bf00c8db_o.jpg

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3013/2890355194_69882ba41d_o.jpg

The market is clearly being manipulated in the way that Silver pointed out. This same pattern has been going on twice a day for at least the last 4 days.

Intrade can no longer considered to be anything even approaching accurate, when it comes to showing how people are actually predicting. Sad to see it getting gamed this way.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@nimh,

Funny how they choose Gallup and not even their own poll which has Obama by 6%.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092408_poll1.pdf

T
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@Cycloptichorn,

Weird. Why would anyone bother? It's not like Intrade is a much-used reference on the candidates' chances; I never come across news stories referencing it, as opposed to polls, which are referred to all the time. And this kind of thing can't be a cheap trick.

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@nimh,

nimh wrote:

Weird. Why would anyone bother? It's not like Intrade is a much-used reference on the candidates' chances; I never come across news stories referencing it, as opposed to polls, which are referred to all the time. And this kind of thing can't be a cheap trick.

It's not that expensive. Total market cap of the political markets at intrade isn't over a million bucks; that's chump change to rich, bored Republicans.

I think that it's a 'poll' that people with money can influence, the only one. They can make it look like the bettors haven't come around to Obama's victory yet, b/c that would be just another bad data point against McCain that people would point to. Though it isn't in many news stories, a lot of people do follow it.

It's embarrassing for Intrade to have this happen, too. They oughta look into it.

Cycloptichorn

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@Diest TKO,

Well, Gallup itself has Obama back up in a 2-point lead now too. Their analysis is cautious:

Quote:

Barack Obama has regained the edge over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Sept. 23-25, 48% to 45%.

Today's three-day rolling average includes interviewing from Tuesday through Thursday, and thus includes two days following McCain's announcement on Wednesday afternoon that he was suspending his campaign, putting his participation in the first presidential debate on hold, and staying in Washington until lawmakers reach an agreement on a financial rescue bill. Last night's interviewing could also reflect public reaction to the reported breakdown of those rescue talks late Thursday afternoon.

Cautious though Gallup's take might be, Obama's move back up looks more significant when paired with today's data from the other daily tracking polls:

Gallup: Obama goes from being tied with McCain to a 3-point lead
Rasmussen: Obama goes from a 3-point lead to a 5-point lead
Diageo/Hotline: Obama goes from a 4-point lead to a 7-point lead
R 2000/Kos: Obama's lead shrinks by a point, from 6 to 5 points.

Average: Obama lead expands from 3.3% to 5.0%. That's his best score since 4 September. It's also the biggest day-on-day change since 7 September.

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@nimh,

Wow, Obama must have had a 50%+ evening in Gallup and Diego to cause swings like that.

Cycloptichorn

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@nimh,

Doesn't this present an arbitage opportunity? I can buy a bunch of Obama's at 0.50/share on one site and a bunch of McCain's at 0.40/share on another. I make money no matter who wins.

1 Reply

@engineer,

engineer wrote:

Doesn't this present an arbitage opportunity? I can buy a bunch of Obama's at 0.50/share on one site and a bunch of McCain's at 0.40/share on another. I make money no matter who wins.

Depends on how much you sink into it, I guess; eventually you will run out of contracts to buy at that low rate. But Obama is trading above 50 now, so...

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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