Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

@spendius,

spendius wrote:

I follow politics Cyclo. Have you seen the gold price. I only take any notice of the ones who put their money where their mouth is. Any fool can talk. Your mind is a creation of the media you digest like your body is of your food.

I'd bet you are a budget eater.

I'm well aware of the price of gold, having more then a little of it myself. Silver too. A few years back I decided it was a better investment then our market and I'm not disappointed in my returns.

Favorability ratings matter in terms of elections. It doesn't matter to me if you don't wish to discuss this.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/wo0i6gjglukrrl2a8zdiza.gif

Safe to say that McCain's convention bump has faded.

Ras +1 McCain
Diego/Hotline +3 Obama
DKos/R2k +4 Obama

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

New state polling from CNN/Time -

Florida: Obama 48, McCain 48
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 45
North Carolina: McCain 48, Obama 47
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 47
Wisconsin: Obama 50, McCain 47

Not bad, not bad!

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Not bad at all Cool

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Today's daily tracking poll graph, now with trendline. Obama's leading again in three out of four tracking polls.

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/7/dailytrackingpolls3za6.png

1 Reply

@nimh,

Can I ask a stupid question? How the hell do you read that poll? I don't know what the numbers on the left mean, and I don't have a clue what the lines are supposed to represent. How do you know what line represents Obama?

Sorry for being a moron, but I have seen you post this same chartt a couple times and I want to know what it actually means!

Thank you in advance, oh great and wise Pollmaster.

2 Replies

@kickycan,

kickycan wrote:

Can I ask a stupid question? How the hell do you read that poll? I don't know what the numbers on the left mean, and I don't have a clue what the lines are supposed to represent. How do you know what line represents Obama?

Sorry for being a moron, but I have seen you post this same chartt a couple times and I want to know what it actually means!

Thank you in advance, oh great and wise Pollmaster.

In Nimh's absence,

All the lines represent both Obama AND McCain. Whenever a data point falls above the line, it represents an Obama lead over McCain; whenever it is below, it's a McCain lead. Each line represents a different tracking poll. So during the DNC, Obama was up several points on McCain; that then reversed; that then reversed itself back, and we are roughly in parity with when we started Smile

Cycloptichorn

2 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

It doesn't matter Cyclo.

They have been "over-passed" by events.

They are as clueless as the average washerwoman. That they claim to know what to do should be taken with a pinch of salt. Your faith in their certainties astounds me.

Are you susceptible to hypnotism?

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

Oh I think I see now. When you say "Whenever a data point falls above the line, it represents an Obama lead over McCain," I assume the line you are referring to is the line at the 0 point. Yeah, yeah, that makes much more sense to me now. Cool.

Thanks

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@kickycan,

Hey Kicky, sorry about that. Glad that Cyclo already jumped in to explain. To summarise:

- Each line (except the dotted one) represents the results of one daily tracking poll.
- The value of each line is the percentage Barack Obama is getting minus the percentage John McCain is getting.
- That's also the numbers on the left, then. Above 0 (and the thick black line) means an Obama lead; under it means a McCain lead.

Example: today, the Research 2000/Kos poll (the lightest blue line) has Obama at 48%, and McCain at 44%. 48 minus 44 = a 4 point lead, so the lightest blue line in the chart is at +4 today.

Diageo/Hotline today has a 3-point Obama lead, Gallup a 2-point Obama lead, and Rasmussen a 1-point McCain lead, so the other blue lines clock in at +3, +2 and -1.

The dotted blue line, meanwhile, is a trendline, derived from the daily averages of these daily tracking polls.

1 Reply

@nimh,

nimh wrote:

Hey Kicky, sorry about that. Glad that Cyclo already jumped in to explain. To summarise:

- Each line (except the dotted one) represents the results of one daily tracking poll.
- The value of each line is the percentage Barack Obama is getting minus the percentage John McCain is getting.
- That's also the numbers on the left, then. Above 0 (and the thick black line) means an Obama lead; under it means a McCain lead.

Example: today, the Research 2000/Kos poll (the lightest blue line) has Obama at 48%, and McCain at 44%. 48 minus 44 = a 4 point lead, so the lightest blue line in the chart is at +4 today.

Diageo/Hotline today has a 3-point Obama lead, Gallup a 2-point Obama lead, and Rasmussen a 1-point McCain lead, so the other blue lines clock in at +3, +2 and -1.

The dotted blue line, meanwhile, is a trendline, derived from the daily averages of these daily tracking polls.

Wonder why there are three shades of blue and one dotted blue line? Makes it a little confusing when they group together!

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

New CBS poll out - and it's good news for Captain O!

Obama: 49% (44%)
McCain: 44% (46%)

and what about white women...

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.

Regarding Change:

Obama: 65%
McCain: 37% (60% say No Change OUCH!)

and Among Independents on who will bring change.

Obama: 61%
McCain: 35%

And on whose a Maverick... Obama is viewed as a "different kind of Democrat" by 47% of voters, while McCain is viewed as a "Maverick" by only 40%; 57% view him as a typical republican.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/17/opinion/polls/main4456249.shtml

Whew

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v334/muzikal203/Obama/n1328940116_30205945_2537.jpg

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=edc4d070-fb0f-43a8-b19c-6b32c3ad36f7

NM Obama 52 McCain 44

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

Any state by state data so far?

All in all, polls so far tell me little or nothing.

Obama has a lead among people who want change? Wow!

1 Reply

@fbaezer,

fbaezer wrote:

Any state by state data so far?

All in all, polls so far tell me little or nothing.

Obama has a lead among people who want change? Wow!

Try here

www.pollster.com
www.fivethirtyeight.com

Cycloptichorn

0 Replies

@Cycloptichorn,

The North Carolina numbers were a great surprise when I saw them earlier today. I'd be pleased to see North Carolina come into play.

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Okay, so this is interesting.

On Intrade's front page, there's a large electoral map, and a EV counter.

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3134/2868480297_e5f6affd59_o.jpg

It represents the intrade market for each individual state. And it updates in real-time. There are a few different options available to look at the data.

There's no new data, I suppose, but it's presented in a very, very slick fashion.

Cycloptichorn

1 Reply

@Cycloptichorn,

The intrade's map looks so much different than the pollster map.
Now that the conventions are over and the post convention bounces have receded, we can resume looking at polls more closely. 46 days to go.

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Does this matter at all?

New Battleground polls
Posted: Friday, September 19, 2008 11:30 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Polls

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Marist battleground polls (among registered voters):

-- MICHIGAN: Obama 50%, McCain 41%
-- OHIO: Obama 44%, McCain 44%
-- PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 45%, McCain 42%

2 Replies

I made a choice today to register my vote in Virginia instead of doing an absentee ballot in Missouri.

Both are battle states. It was a hard choice. In the end, I choose VA because it is worth more and is closer for Obama. Maybe I can help put it over. I'll be encouraging my roommates to do the same.

T
K
O

4 Replies

Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

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