Well I didnt stay up for anything this time, and I cant say I regret it, specially considering Oregon still hasnt finished counting apparently. And because there wasnt much of a surprise, of course.
For sure, the beating that Obama took in
Kentucky was huge. 35 points! Thats no chickenshit. I mean, everybody knew Hillary was going to win big, Obama didnt even campaign there, demographically it's almost a perfect fit for Hillary. And the polls had indeed predicted a rout, if not quite that big - they'd estimated a Hillary lead of 26 (Suffolk), 31 (SUSA), 36 (ARG), 27 (Research 2000) and 25 (Rasmussen) points. Previous primaries often showed a "winner bonus" compared to the last polls out, so it's no surprise it would be even bigger than that.
But still, it would have been nice if it had been somewhere in the 20-30 point range, closer to 20 than 30 even; Poblano's estimate had provided some hope for that. This is a blowout.
On the other side,
Oregon was a very comfortable win indeed for Obama. 16 points (at the moment) -- not bad at all. More comfortable than the polls would have made you think: Survey USA (again) and PPP had indeed had Obama's lead that large, but Suffolk and ARG polls in the last couple of days with an Obama lead of just 4-5 points must have caused some nervosity. So this is very comforting.
The reassurance is even bigger because Obama didnt rely on Portland for his victory. As Nick Beaudrot summarises it at Cogitamus:
Quote:He won the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis. He won in Bend and Medford, which don't have reputations as liberal strongholds. He won six counties where fewer than 18% of adults hold a college degree. He won non-college voters 51-48. He split white women 50-50. He won voters earning under $50,000 53-46. He won union households by a larger margin than non-union households (which is a first for this campaign, I think). He won voters who named the economy as the most important issue.
