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Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

 
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2008 10:08 am
sozobe wrote:
50-42!

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/032808DailyUpdateGraph1.gif


In Rasmussen,

Link

It's 48-42 Obama!

Nice when the graphs show the same trends

Cycloptichorn
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2008 06:58 pm
Updated: With 31.26% reporting, Barack is still holding strong at 55% to 45%.

The Texas County Conventions are underway right now, and results from some of the smaller conventions are beginning to trickle in. In all, over 88,000 delegates will meet today to cast their votes, and full results may not be available for some time.

The Texas blog Burnt Orange Report is providing ongoing coverage of today's conventions.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2008 09:27 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
In Rasmussen,

Link

It's 48-42 Obama!

Nice when the graphs show the same trends

Yep - looking good.

Now hope that finally, the trend pushes on and he can really break out of this deadlock.


http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/5842/galluprasmusdems8es2.png


http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/1389/galluprasmusobama3pi1.png


http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/1787/galluprasmusclinton3ct9.png


http://img296.imageshack.us/img296/6977/galluprasmusdemslead11fh7.png
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2008 09:31 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Updated: With 31.26% reporting, Barack is still holding strong at 55% to 45%.

[..] The Texas blog Burnt Orange Report is providing ongoing coverage of today's conventions.

Thanks for the link! Interesting.

Right now, with 38.03% reporting, Barack is leading 60% to 40%.

They have a county-by-county breakdown in this Google spreadsheet, which should be updated every 30-45 mins.

At the bottom, they calculate Obama's and Clinton's current tallies of delegates as percentage of the total of delegates that will be divided; Obama is at 34.3% and Hillary at 23.8%.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 29 Mar, 2008 09:50 pm
But referring to the numbers on the Burnt Orange site, Nick Beaudrot at Cogitamus warns:

Quote:
As these results are by county (or, in heavily populated counties, by State Senate district), they will probably swing wildly as the day goes on.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 12:39 pm
Heh line:

Quote:
The Hotline suggests, "Forget Pennsylvania. Welcome to Indiana, the new North Carolina." Sandwiched between Illinois (Obama) and Ohio (Clinton), "it's the Switzerland of Dem primaries," they declared.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 12:55 pm
Intriguing, and possibly positive news from Pennsylvania on the Cogitamus blog:

Quote:
Pennsylvania New Democratic Registration Map

Cogitamus
March 26, 2008

http://www.cogitamusblog.com/images/2008/03/26/pennsylvania_registration_dem_2.png
(click to enlarge)
  • Philadelphia
  • Harrisburg
  • State College
  • Erie
The registration picture appears to favor Barack Obama; more people live in Philly, its suburbs, and State College than SWB, Lehigh Valley, and Erie. But there are two caveats. First, the advantage is very small, perhaps 3% of the primary electorate at most. And Second, the affluent suburban Philly voters might not go for Obama; he won those voters in Texas, but not Ohio.

Posted by Nick Beaudrot
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 02:17 pm
Deeply depressing:

Quote:
Obama the Muslim and his Christian Preacher

The Democratic Strategist
Ed Kilgore
March 28, 2008

One of the things you heard a lot from Obama supporters over the last couple of weeks was the rueful observation that the Jeremiah Wright controversy would at least greatly reduce the whisper-campaign-fed perception that he's a Muslim. Not so, says a new Pew poll.

    There is little evidence that the recent news about Obama's affiliation with the United Church of Christ has dispelled the impression that he is Muslim. While voters who heard "a lot" about Reverend Wright's controversial sermons are more likely than those who have not to correctly identify Obama as a Christian, they are not substantially less likely to still believe that he is Muslim. Nearly one-in-ten (9%) of those who heard a lot about Wright still believe that Obama is Muslim.
The percentage of Americans believing Obama's a Muslim ranges from 14% among Republicans, to 10% among Democrats, to 8% among independents. At the risk of repeating one of those misleading triple-loaded poll findings, 23% of white Democrats with an unfavorable opinion of Obama think he's a Muslim.

Moreover, a third of poll respondents--and a third of Democrats--say they don't know what religion Barack Obama observes.

Otherwise, the Pew poll has a lot of welcome findings for Obama, showing a positive reaction to his "race speech," and leads over HRC and McCain roughly the same as they found a month ago. But it's beginning to become obvious that the "Obama is a Muslim" thing has become one of those ineradicable myths that evidence to the contrary can't shake.

"The percentage of Americans believing Obama's a Muslim ranges from 14% among Republicans, to 10% among Democrats, to 8% among independents." Shocked
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 03:07 pm
Burnt Orange Report - Results from County Conventions in Texas

TIMESTAMP - 3:18PM, 3/30/08

86.51% reporting


Clinton 44.09%
Obama 55.91%
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 07:33 pm
Milestone for Obama!

Today, in the Gallup daily tracking poll:

52% Obama
42% Clinton

In the Rasmussen daily tracking poll:

47% Obama
42% Clinton

Average:

49.5% Obama
42% Clinton

Makes for a 7.5% lead.

That's the biggest lead Obama's ever had in the Democratic primary race, in these averages. Obama's been up to 50% before, and Clinton down at 42%, but never at the same time.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Mar, 2008 07:35 pm
Bonus detail for the Gallup poll:

"The latest results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted March 27-29. Obama did particularly well in interviewing conducted on March 29."

Suggests that his numbers will go up further.

Bonus details for the Rasmussen poll:

"Clinton leads by ten among White voters. This includes a twenty-three point advantage among White Women. Obama leads among White Men, has an overwhelming advantage among African-Americans, and a solid lead among voters under 50."
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 06:59 am
This question could go any number of places, but we seem to have done a lot of detail/ procedural discussions here:

I remember reading that Hillary's campaign messed up something with delegates in Pennsylvania, as an example of how they had failed to have a campaign plan post-Super Tuesday.

For example:

Jonathan Alter wrote:
In Pennsylvania, which votes on April 22, the Clinton campaign did not even file full delegate slates. That's how sure they were of putting Obama away on Super Tuesday.


http://www.newsweek.com/id/114725/page/1

Could this effect how she does in Pennsylvania? For example, does she need to get a significantly higher percentage of the popular vote to beat Obama (in the delegate count) than if she'd filed a full delegate slate?

Anyone know more? (I'll do more research after hitting "submit" and let you know if I find anything interesting...)
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 07:02 am
Oh, that was fast. Seems inconsequential:

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/02/clinton_fails_to_slate_full_pa.html

Quote:
But Clinton's faux pas is more of an image problem than a practical one.

Under Democratic Party rules (and does any organization on the planet have more rules or more complex rules?) a presidential candidate winning in a congressional district gets delegates from that district (assigned at a later date) whether he or she files slates delegates or not.


Hmph.

Stupid rules.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 07:07 am
More details from hilzoy here:

http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/02/pennsylvania-de.html
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 05:18 pm
Some more grist for your charts, nimh...

Public Policy Polling: Obama OverTakes Clinton In PA

Public Policy Polling: Obama Continues to Hold Large Lead In NC

Politico: Hispanics More Likely To Be Color-Blind in General Election
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 05:48 pm
Butrflynet wrote:
Some more grist for your charts, nimh...

Public Policy Polling: Obama OverTakes Clinton In PA

Wow, that is good news.

Rasmussen already had Obama closing the gap on Hillary to just five points yesterday, I thought that was already very good news.

Mind you, a new Survey USA poll still has Hillary leading by a healthy 12 points (though that too is down, from 19 the time before).
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 06:20 pm
Yes it was good news.

I'm looking forward to seeing the trend graphs for the General Election and for the upcoming primary states to see if this good news is confirmed.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 06:34 pm
Yeah, I should get to work eh? Razz
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 06:39 pm
Cogitamus has lovely maps from Texas mapping out the caucus results there by county - and how they differed from the primary results:

Quote:
2008 Texas Democratic Caucus Results Map

http://www.cogitamusblog.com/images/2008/03/31/texas_caucus_dem_public.png http://www.cogitamusblog.com/images/2008/03/05/texas_dem_2.png

[click each of the maps separately to enlarge]

Almost all the county-level results are in outside of West Texas are in
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 2 Apr, 2008 07:05 pm
I think I have this right. Correct me if I am wrong.

Clinton is running out of money.

Contributions can be made to a candidate's primary campaign and/or to the November election campaign. But the money contributed, which has a cap on it, cannot be comingled. Once designated, it can't be reallocated.
The Clinton folks never foresaw that the primary race would go on for so long, so they paid more attention to raising money for the general election against the Repub.
Clinton has already lent $5 million in personal money to the campaign and reportedly will have to kick in another $5 million to get through PA.
If she wins by, say, 10 points, she might get momentum in terms of fundraising for the remaining primaries. But is she staggers in with a mediocre win or (gasp) loses PA, she is dead meat.

Follow the money.
0 Replies
 
 

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