Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

A first sketch using the Google Maps gadget and PhotoShop layers of what the surrounding landscape looks like for the upcoming primaries in IN, KY, WV, PA and NC:

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Seems to confirms the expectation that things will be very hard for Obama in Kentucky and West Virginia.

(Hillary has been the Queen of the Appalachians in these primaries, I've been meaning to link to a great blog post with lots of maps about that for some time now, will get around to it soon).

Hard in Pennsylvania too.

But although prior results of course provide no guarantee for the future (or what is that in English), the map suggests that he has a shot in Indiana, and especially North Carolina should be more do-able.

Republicans Who Won't Vote For McCain

If you agree with me John McCain isn't your choice for president then write in you favorite person as a protest. If there are enough protesting then perhaps the RNC / GOP will wake up and smell the coffee? We are mad as hell and we want action.

I don't think people really appreciate the uniqueness of what's going on here: there are two Democratic candidates who are almost precisely tied. They've won nearly equal numbers of delegates; they've won nearly equal portions of the popular vote; and for two nearly two months straight they've polled within three or four points of each other. Two months! All this new information, all the spitballs, all the ads, all the spin, and both candidates have held on to almost precisely the same level of support they had right after Super Tuesday. That's remarkable.

There's no need to make this more complicated than it is. The Democratic Party has two candidates with almost eerily similar levels of support, and that support is deep and strong for both of them.

Good news from the Gallup daily tracking poll:

- Obama up 1 to 48%
- Clinton down 2 to 44%
- Makes for a 4-points Obama lead, the largest for him since 13 March, just before the Wright affair broke.

Unfortunate reality check - there's contrasting numbers in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll:

After seeing Scott Rasmussen on Fox a couple tmes, I no longer trust that poll.

After seeing Scott Rasmussen on Fox a couple tmes, I no longer trust that poll.

Clinton's February F.E.C. Filings

Despite a strong month of fund-raising in February in which she brought in $35 million, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton finished the month essentially in the red, once her campaign's outstanding debts are factored in, as well as her personal loan, according to filings submitted late last night to the Federal Election Commission.

After spending about $31 million in her efforts to keep up with Senator Barack Obama, Mrs. Clinton finished February with more than $33 million in cash on hand, but $21.5 million of that is earmarked exclusively for the general election, leaving her with $11.7 million for the primary.

Mrs. Clinton, however, loaned her campaign $5 million earlier this year and she listed $8.7 million in debts to various vendors, making clear why she has not yet paid herself back from her loan.

By way of comparison, Senator Barack Obama, her Democratic opponent, brought in $55 million in February, a record-setting sum, and spent about $43 million, leaving him with $31.6 million in cash on hand available for the primary and $7.3 million set aside for the general. He also did a much better job paying his bills, listing just $625,000 in outstanding debts.