Get yer polls, bets, numbers & pretty graphs! Elections 2008

I think I have this right. Correct me if I am wrong.

Clinton is running out of money.

Contributions can be made to a candidate's primary campaign and/or to the November election campaign. But the money contributed, which has a cap on it, cannot be comingled. Once designated, it can't be reallocated.
The Clinton folks never foresaw that the primary race would go on for so long, so they paid more attention to raising money for the general election against the Repub.
Clinton has already lent $5 million in personal money to the campaign and reportedly will have to kick in another $5 million to get through PA.
If she wins by, say, 10 points, she might get momentum in terms of fundraising for the remaining primaries. But is she staggers in with a mediocre win or (gasp) loses PA, she is dead meat.

Follow the money.

I read somewhere yesterday that some pundants are thinking that if she loses the nomination, rather than her campaign returning all the "general election" designated donations as mandated by law, she will continue to run but not as a Democrat.

Do you think she'll switch to Nader's party and run against him? :wink:

If Clinton wins by 10 points in PA, she will catch up 3-7 pledged delegates. Per DemConWatch, she's currently down 164. It just isn't going to be enough for her to catch up, and in fact, since so many of the remaining delegates are going to be given out in PA, she'll be statistically farther behind then she is now, which is sort of ironic.

Cycloptichorn

By the way, did anyone save a copy of that spreadsheet that was "leaked" to the press several months ago by the Obama campaign? Which of the upcoming states did it say they expected to win or lose and how accurate have the predictions been so far?

Looks as if there are still a lot of undecideds marking their spots for a candidate too. The lines are mirrors of each other...looks like the poll participants are still very fickle and flutter from candidate to candidate based on the news of the day. They know they are voting for a Democrat but aren't sure which one.

That's why I'm not ready to "chill out" "relax" or take anything for granted yet. There is still a whole lot of work to be done on the ground in the upcoming primary states.

And don't forget the state conventions of the past primary and caucus states. There are still some major battles going on to influence delegates on that level. The Obama campaign can't afford to not keep an eye on those as they move forward.


B y the way, did anyone save a copy of that spreadsheet that was "leaked" to the press several months ago by the Obama campaign? Which of the upcoming states did it say they expected to win or lose and how accurate have the predictions been so far?

I have to remind myself all the time that Ras and Gallup don't do callbacks. So when you see the fluctuations up and down, they just aren't as predictive of sentiment moving up and down as they may seem to be - unless there is REAL movement...

Poll: 76 percent say U.S. ready for black president
From Paul Steinhauser
CNN Deputy Political Director

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The number of Americans who believe the country is ready for a black president is rising, a poll out Thursday suggested.

More than three quarters, 76 percent, of respondents in a CNN/Essence Magazine/Opinion Research Corp. poll said the country is ready to be led by an African-American, up 14 points since December 2006.

Some of the rise can be attributed to the success of Sen. Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primaries, said Keating Holland, CNN's polling director.

"We're not asking this question in a vacuum. In many cases, respondents must have had Obama in mind when giving their answer, even though he is not mentioned anywhere in the questionnaire," Holland said.

The Senator from Illinois is locked in a battle with Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York for the Democratic presidential nomination. Obama leads Clinton in states won, delegates pledged and in the overall popular vote in the primaries and caucuses held so far.

The poll also indicates more whites than blacks think the country is ready for a black president. Of the white Americans surveyed, 78 percent said the country is ready, as opposed to 69 percent of African-Americans polled. Both numbers are up substantially from December 2006.

"Drawing on their own life experience, blacks are a little more skeptical than whites. But blacks, too, have come around, particularly after the Iowa caucuses demonstrated that Obama could win in an overwhelmingly white electorate," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.

"Among blacks, the belief that the country is ready for an African-American president is highest among blacks who share traits with Obama. Optimism about the country's acceptance of a black president is higher among black men than among black women, higher among college-educated blacks than among those with no college degree, and higher among younger blacks than older blacks," Holland said.

The poll also suggested more Americans think the country is ready for a black president than a female president. Sixty-three percent of those surveyed say the country is ready for a female president, 13 points lower than those who say the country is ready for a black president.

"Do Americans see more prejudice against a woman than an African-American? More likely, they see more negative feelings about this woman than about this African-American. Because it's true. More people have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary Clinton than of Barack Obama," Schneider said.

The poll asked whether the country is ready for a black or female president, not whether respondents would vote for a black or female president.

"Few people will acknowledge their own prejudices, but they will answer whether they think the country is ready to elect a black or woman president," Schneider said.

The survey is being released on the eve of the 40th anniversary of the assassination of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. The poll was conducted by telephone from March 26 to April 2, with 2,184 Americans questioned, including 1,014 blacks and 1,001 white.

The survey's margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for the overall sample and plus or minus 3 percentage points for the questions asked just to blacks or whites.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/03/poll.black.president/index.html

"We're not asking this question in a vacuum. In many cases, respondents must have had Obama in mind when giving their answer, even though he is not mentioned anywhere in the questionnaire," Holland said.

Ya think?

Um, I have problems with the CNN poll cited above. It doesn't look right.

Nimh knows quite a bit more than I do about statistics, but the first red flag for me was the claim that the survey had a margin of error or 2-3%. That is very difficult to achieve unless you have a sample size that is quite large relative to the population.

Then I saw that the poll was by CNN/Essence and consisted of 1200 African-American participants and 1000 whites. Essence is, I believe, a magazine aimed at the black and white working class crowd of females. The poll results are probably not indicative of the general population.

I have my glasses on, fishin.

The article just says it was a poll of "Americans" which usually just means a random pool of people with a U.S. address.